Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has reacted to this morning's estimate from Hudson Square that GTA IV could sell up to 13 million units this year, telling videogaming247, "I suppose it's possible, but I think it's unlikely."
Pachter had previously said that he expects the game to hit 9 million copy sales before the end of Take-Two's financial year on October 31.
"Of course there is a chance of selling that many," he told videogaming247. "My estimate is truly just a function of the estimated installed base and a guess as to what the attach rate for the game will be to the installed base of consoles."
Pachter estimates that Sony will have an installed base of 16.3 million PS3s in the US and Europe by year-end, compared to Microsoft's 21.3 million Xbox 360s.
"In my view, the game will be hard pressed to capture 33 percent share of all consoles in the addressable market, and the 13 million estimate from Hudson Square implies a 35 percent attach rate.
"I suppose it's possible, but I think it's unlikely. A good example of a hardcore game's attach rate is Halo 3. According to the NPD Group, Halo 3 has sold 5.04 million units in the U.S. (a fair proxy, I think) since its release. That's a 52 percent attach rate to the Xbox 360. If GTA IV attaches at the same rate, it will sell a lot more units than I've forecast. In contrast, Gears of War sold only 2.74 million, for a 28.5 percent attach rate. My guess is that GTA IV will attach at closer to a 30 percent rate than to a 50 percent attach rate, but it's certainly reasonable to think differently."
GTA IV releases globally on April 29.