Despite our fears, the 'future of gaming’ probably won't be dominated by services like PS+ and Game Pass
“The idea that subs will become dominant is unsupported by data.”
There’s been a lot of chatter recently with regards to subscription services and their potential to eventually become the dominant force model-wise in the games industry. However, it looks like the current data on offer doesn’t indicate that a dystopian future like that coming to fruition is anything like a foregone conclusion.
In case you’re out of the loop, Ubisoft’s director of subscriptions Philippe Tremblay kicked off a bit of a discourse by suggesting in an interview with GiBiz earlier this week that players need to get more comfortable with the idea of not owning their games in a traditional fashion in order for subscriptions continue growing at the same rate they have been so far. As you might expect, a lot of people aren’t fans of the idea of those services becoming the only way games are served to players and getting to dictate what kinds of games get made.
However, it looks like the current data and forecasts games industry analysts are seeing doesn’t really support the idea of the gaming space being subjected to total subscription service domination any time soon.
“Subscription growth has flattened, and sub services on console and PC platforms accounts for only 10% of total video game content spending in the US,” Circana analyst Mat Piscatella explained in a recent tweet, “I get that some people want to protect their preferred model, but the idea that subs will become dominant is unsupported by data.”
He went on to add: “Subs have been more additive than cannibalistic, and offer players, devs and [publishers] more choice in how to play or how to go to market. Fear mongering on this topic is quite unnecessary.”
If it’s specific examples of subscription services that we all know and love, hate, or feel indifferent about not quite hitting their required world domination targets of late, look no further than Microsoft’s Xbox Game Pass. As James McWhirter - a senior games analyst at Omdia - outlined to IGN in a recent interview, that firm’s current forecast hints at “slowing adoption” of the service by players.
Omdia projects that: “total Xbox Game Pass subscriptions (excluding Core/Live Gold) [will] be at 33.3 million at the end of 2023, which represents subscriber growth of just 13% - down from 15% in 2022.” McWhirter also pointed out that “over half (55%) [of Game Pass subscribers] are currently on the device-agnostic Ultimate tier.”
It’s certainly been great to see prominent developers like Baldur's Gate 3 director Swen Vincke come out and emphasise how important they feel it is that the ‘traditional model’ of developers selling games directly to players remains a viable option going forwards. However, if the outlines and anecdotes offered above are any indication, it looks like our fears of being totally dommed by subs may well not come true, at least in the immediate future.
Baldur’s Gate 3 may not be coming to Game Pass any time soon, but the Xbox update that’s designed to rectify the game’s save issues on that platform is available now.