EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has said he expects newly-announced premium service Call of Duty: Elite will have 1.5 million subscribers by the end of the year.
Speaking to IndustryGamers, he also expects 2 to 4 million subs in Elite's first 12 months.
"In terms of the services potential, our current surveys and market research indicate that Call of Duty: Elite could achieve 10 to 20% penetration among Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 purchasers," he said.
"This likely translates into about 2 to 4 million subscribers after 12 months and likely 1.5 million subscribers by the end of 2011. We suspect that the subscription price will range in the $4.99 area.
"It is critical, however, that CoD MW3 achieves critical acclaim as the bulk of subscribers are likely to come from the core gaming community, where review scores can have incredible influence. While this wouldn't have been a factor in prior years, as CoD has faced little competition, the release of Battlefield 3 could prove to be a thorn in CoD's side."
Call of Duty: Elite was formally announced yesterday as CoD's long talked-about subscription service. You can read the full details on it here.
Divnich added that in terms of quality, Battlefield 3 will be "better" than Modern Warfare 3, but the Infinity Ward-Sledgehammer joint effort will still beat the DICE shooter by two-to-one in a situation similar to the battles between Rock Band and Guitar Hero in the past.