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Analysts say even if GTA V releases in 2012, it won’t curb industry decline

Saturday, 7th July 2012 19:55 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Industry analysts have said even if Grand Theft Auto V should miraculously release this year, it won’t curb sluggish industry sales.

Speaking with VentureBeat, Robert W. Baird & Co’s Colin Sebastian said while he isn’t confident the game will be out this year, if Take-Two should surprise us all and release it, console software sales would still be in a modest decline.

“Given the current momentum of the market, I doubt any major releases, even one of GTA V’s size, would push the physical markets back into the positives,” said EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich in agreement. “The traditional gaming sector is under an enormous amount of downward pressure at the moment, and it will require a strong catalyst to shift that momentum.”

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said while GTA V could accumulate $700 million in sales, it would still only amount to “less than 10% of the expected overall software sales this year,” industry sales are down more than that, year-to-date.

While it’s been suggested GTA V could release during T2′s financial year ending March 31, 2013, the firm has yet to confirm when it plans to release it. Going by past releases in the franchise and from Rockstar in general, it will release “when it’s ready.”

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24 Comments

  1. Talkar

    Release when ready? Ever heard of GTA IV? :P

    #1 2 years ago
  2. jdfoster00

    Why? Because games are expensive… £40 for mediocre games is too much to ask for…. Create some quality games and we will buy them for £40 but if they’re not release them at £20-£25!!! Then more people will buy video games like back in ps1 and ps2 days!

    #2 2 years ago
  3. Dark

    @ i agree .. this why i’m not excited for next gen
    most of the games just sucks and beautiful graphics won’t change that.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. Phoenixblight

    @2

    ANd who is to say what is a “quality” game and what isn’t. Games will always be 60$ at release or more if you don’t feel like its a quality game then when until its on for sale. Pretty simple.

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Giskard

    @4 That’s what everyone is doing. Thus the industry is in decline because of the obvious lack of quality titles.

    #5 2 years ago
  6. DarkElfa

    It’s in decline because EA and Activision are in a contest to see who can buy up the most talented studios, ruin their reputations, completely change what made them talented and then have them churn out crap for 60 a pop.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. Ireland Michael

    @6 Their strategies may not be the best, but their stuff is selling like hotcakes. They’re keeping the industry alive.

    And E.A. stopped being the evil “Dev Destroyer” years ago. Thats Activision’s And Microsoft’s gig right now.

    #7 2 years ago
  8. Phoenixblight

    @5

    Its not in a decline and if you listen to NPD saying that it is than you have bigger issues. They can’t can’t track the digital sales so ofcourse looking at those physical numbers being sold would tell a different story.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Gigabomber

    @8 Agree. Most people around age 30 are now admitting they game, and the tide of anti-game sentiment is lightening up. Prepare for the future.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. Giskard

    @8 There are virtually no digital sales of Xbox / PS3 games, and those are in major decline, according to NPD, which means it’s safe to assume that their numbers are reasonably correct.

    PC market is fine though, I’ll grant you that, but seeing as GTA is a console game first and foremost, the console numbers are more interesting.

    #10 2 years ago
  11. Phoenixblight

    @10

    “There are virtually no digital sales of Xbox / PS3 games”

    May want to look again majority of the triple A games are on download for the 360 and PS3.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. drewbles82

    If you don’t like paying so much for a game, wait a few months. Don’t have to buy a game day one. Example my m8 bought Fallout3 day one and all the DLC day one, cost over £80 all together.
    I waited a year and got the GOTYE for £14.99
    Only just got Assassins Creed Rev for 12.99

    #12 2 years ago
  13. M. K.

    @7: That was a good one. You must have forgotten bioware, pandemic and co. :D

    #13 2 years ago
  14. Phoenixblight

    @13

    What of Bioware? Because of EA they have gained control of three studios not only that their games have sold more than any other game when they were independent. Also these companies weren’t forced into a deal They were looking to be sold and thats is when EA offered them a deal and they took it. Pandemic games were sub par at best and just couldn’t hack the pressure so what happens when you can’t make a profit for your boss? You get the axe. The studio may have been closed but the employees are still working for EA at least most of them.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. Ireland Michael

    @13 I had a feeling people would mention BioWare.

    BioWare have made their own mistakes. Just like it is easy to blame Activision for Blizzard’s problems, it’s become convenient for people to blame Electronic Arts for BioWare’s. Without E.A., they would have gone under years ago. They *asked* to be bought.

    Not only are BioWare’s “failings” entitely open to interpretation, but they are also a part of E.A. that has had a lot of freedom and autonomy. This has been a popular focus of developer acquisition at E.A. for some time now, *because* of the number of development companies that felt apart in the past after joining E.A. – Origin, Bullfrog, etc.

    E.A. even has schemes set up to help fund smaller development companies projects.

    Trip Hawkings does not run E.A. anymore. Move on.

    Pandemic as a label was not delivering the goods. They simply dropped the name and reassigned people to other departments in the company. How is this “evil” in any way whatsoever?

    #15 2 years ago
  16. TheWulf

    @4

    You answered that with your own rhetoric and you pointed out how pointless your comment was within its own post. So I’m not sure as to what the purpose of your post was.

    Who determines the quality of entertainment? The viewer, no one else, because quality is largely subjective in regards to entertainment, due to the ephemeral nature of entertainment. What some might love, others might hate. If he feels that most mainstream games don’t represent quality from his perspective, then from his perspective he’s correct, and it’s his prerogative to share his opinion.

    And for what it’s worth, his opinion is matched by mine. The vast majority of AAA stuff these days is boring shit, thus poor quality.

    Give me a good dieselpunk game in a fantastic world or something and I might be interested, but it’s the same old mindrot all the time, the same dull settings, with everyone ripping each other off. OH, MODERN IS THE CURRENT SETTING. LET’S DO A MILLION MODERN GAMES. OH, NEAR FUTURE IS THE CURRENT SETTING. LET’S DO A LOT OF THAT. OH, HISTORIC STUFF IS… et fucking cetera.

    There’s a lot of bandwagon jumping and not a whole bloody lot of creativity.

    #16 2 years ago
  17. TheWulf

    @15

    Sorry. Part of that is intentionally misleading bullshit. If you’re not a person who prides themselves on intellectual dishonesty, you’ll be happy with me calling you on this.

    In the case of Origin Systems at least, they were partially ruined by Electronic Arts. They were bought out when they were healthy and… well, EA tried to make their games ‘broadly popular.’ This lead to Ultima taking a BOLD NEW DIRECTION with Ultima 8.

    See, EA had them redesign their franchise after buying them out in 1992. And this meant that Ultima now had to become an action RPG. Ultima 8 was an amazingly bad game and a financial failure.

    Then a number of other tragedies occurred…

    EA thought that MMORPGs were popular, so they set them to work on Ultima Online. They thought that the failure of Ultima 8 was 2D, so they set Origin Systems to work on another RPG, an action RPG. This lead to people leaving, including one of the lead writers on Ultima XI, which meant that the plot went to shit.

    Ultima XI was another terrible game, rushed, typical of EA.

    Some success was had by UO, but it wasn’t popular enough. EA believed that this was due to the lack of 3D. They wanted an Everquest killer. So they took people off Ultima Online to work on UO2, Privateer Online, and a bunch of other projects. Due to the poor sales of Ultima XI, and the ‘unexpectedly high’ development costs of MMORPGs, they found Origin Systems was too expensive to keep running, so they dissolved them.

    Origin Systems was fucked over by EA.

    Westwood, Origin Systems, Criterion… all were tainted by EA. I mean, you can’t say that there’s just some massive coincidence here.

    Now, that’s not to say that I disagree with all of your post. I know that EA now isn’t the same as EA then. But at one point it was a fairly terrible company that was responsible for the downfall of a number of developers. Since they switched management, they improved, yes.

    But to say that poor widdle EA were never guilty of anything is fucking ridiculous. The sordid history of Origin Systems is likely a template for every developer they bought out back then.

    #17 2 years ago
  18. Fin

    Anyone who says the games industry is worse now that at any point previously is wrong. There’s never been so many games of such high quality.

    Everyone sees old games through rose tinted glasses. If you went back and played them now, shock, the majority aren’t very good.
    Mass Effect 3 was better than 1 and 2.
    Diablo 3 was better than 2.

    Even RAGE, which reviewed quite badly, was called out because it hadn’t moved on from old game conventions/had arcane design. Games are such a fickle bunch, if something innovates, they’re like “WE LIKE THE OLD ONE BETTER”, if something stays the same, they’re like “WE WANT INNOVATION”.

    Gamers are better now, get over it.

    Also, on topic, I think it’s getting too late for GTA V to launch Q4 this year, I’d be looking at an April slot next year instead.

    #18 2 years ago
  19. Ireland Michael

    @17 “Origin Systems was fucked over by EA.”

    Uuuh… that is exactly what I said.

    Seriously, did you even read my post?

    I specifically stated that EA changed internally because of the damage that kept happening whenever they were acquired. I even name dropped Origin. Ultima is probably my all time favourite franchise.

    BTW, it was Ultima IX, not XI. =P

    Not sure I agree on Criterion. Their games may not still be called Burnout anymore, but they’re still bloody amazing.

    #19 2 years ago
  20. OlderGamer

    I have been saying it for years. The console market is consuming itself.

    Fact is games are too expensive. And DLC makes it worse.

    Way too many simaler looking, feeling, and playing games on the market.

    Yearly sequels and franchises are not helping matters. Not just the actual product, but the mentality that pushes pubs to start thinking in terms like Franchises. If game one sells a certian number, then they up the ante on game two. And every game is expected to reach certian bench marks, or it fails and a studio closes.

    Speaking of bench marks, look at the break even point for many games. Games just cost too much to make. No way you should have to sell 2 million units to turn a profit.

    I think, tho, that the games industry is fine. However the dedicated so called “core” market is shrinking. And really, even the sheer numbers are still there. Just if the bulk of the gamers play one, two, or three franchise titles, there just isn’t room for five, six, or seven games offering the same experiences. And yes, mostly I am thinking of OMP Shooters. But I can think of lots of other generes that are drowning in sameness.

    And while there are more people playing games today then ever there was, those numbers are not all core gamers. …

    “It’s been a shock to the system of many gamers, and plenty of people within the industry, to discover that the universe doesn’t revolve around them” … http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-07-06-a-question-of-maturity The subject was on maturity of games, but it fits here too.

    Everyone with a pov, tends to believe that their pov is the right one. The world, acording to them. And that what they feel and think is truth and way things really work. Just perspective is all.

    A lot of people buy games. They buy Nintendo games(look at this gens total top ten sales chart, more Nintendo games then any other pub), they buy games from Yahoo, Zynga, and Steam. They play games on tablets and phones. iOS and Andriod. They play them on Gameboy. People play a lot of games that would make a dedicated core gamer cringe. And many sectors of gaming are growing.

    But high profile, high budget, trip A console games … only so much growth potential there. Only so much room. And it really does, imo, come down to price point. You can’t bring up that inflation crap where a game today costs less then a game ten years ago. Mostly because it is wrong. People today have less disposable income. And gamers today have a wider selection of cheaper choices.

    If all the market has was an Atari 2600 to game on, that is where all of the gamers would play. However because of the limited choice and platform, a lot less people would be interested in gaming. Think about that in terms of the current games market. Today there are a ton of choices, from different platforms to different games. That is good, unless your the Atari 2600(PS360), because you will lose people to other alternatives.

    The PS360 core markets push very defined sets of gaming experiences. And they are expensive. I can easily imagine, infact know people that scoff at the idea of spending 80usd on a game(w/dlc)for a 200, 300, or 400usd console, yet own 80usd of iOS games. Again it is that perception thing. The games industry no longer revolves around core demographics, dedicated consoles, and expensive games.

    Next gen(console speaking) is just going to be more of the same. But, with less room for smaller and medium game studios/dev/pubs. We will see the high profile franchise games/studios/pubs out in full force, but I am not too sure what beyond that. We will pay more money and have less games.

    I could be wrong. I am told I tend to think the sky is falling a lot. But I also tend to see things coming down the road. Things that aren’t here yet. Because sometimes you need to look for more then the hand in front of your face.

    #20 2 years ago
  21. absolutezero

    @18 Games are not better now. Get over it.

    See how fucking easy that was?

    #21 2 years ago
  22. Ireland Michael

    @20 Personally, I can’t wait wait until the “hardcore” gamer is an old and dying breed, and the gamers left are those who enjoy all sides of the spectrum, from casual games to core games to non-game games (check up stuff like Tiny Tower and Pocket Planes) to interactive media.

    Our hobby will be better for it.

    #22 2 years ago
  23. eletrobadboy

    GTA 5 needs to be released soon as possible and defernly not on 33st March 2013 we need it NOW!
    Also GTA 5 needs to be a 15 and a 18 for peoples parents who won’t let them have 18 and only let them have 15 becouse of bad language!
    P.S the 18 and the 15 are going to be the same but with different ages!
    WE NEED GTA 5 NOW!😡

    #23 2 years ago
  24. Moonwalker1982

    GTA V is not coming this year. But some folks on this forum say it will. They actually have a really good theory that makes alot sense and logic, i suggest reading it. But i still don’t see it coming in October.

    http://www.gtaforums.com/index.php?showtopic=516074

    #24 2 years ago

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