Analyst: Red Dead Redemption will sell 4 million in its first year

By Johnny Cullen, Monday, 17 May 2010 14:02 GMT

Red Dead Redemption Art

Rockstar’s favourite number is going to be four – with a bunch of zeros at the end –  if analyst Doug Creutz is correct.

The Cowan and Company analyst reckons the San Diego-made western will sell 4 million units in its first year on sale.

“Red Dead has been perched at the top of the online retailer best seller lists for several weeks now, and we believe it is poised for breakout success,” he said in a recent note.

But he goes on to add that due to the amount of time Rockstar takes in creating a new game for its franchises – Creutz says the Red Dead series will become “another core franchise” for parent company Take Two – it might not be until the next generation of consoles until we see a new edition in the series.

Creutz also added in the note that the silence from Rockstar over dates for two more of its big titles, LA Noire and Max Payne 3, has been “deafening”, adding that while there could be date announcements at E3 next month, there is concern both titles could miss its FY10 release windows.

“Silence on Max Payne 3, LA Noire is deafening. With just over five months until the end of Take-Two’s FY10, there has been little to no indication that either title is ready for launch,” he said.

“Although Rockstar is presumably busy focusing on the Red Dead launch and could make announcements about release dates at E3, we are concerned that both titles could miss the FY10 window.”

Currently, LA Noire’s down for a fall release for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, while Max Payne 3’s due in Q4 for PS3 and 360.

Red Dead Redemption, meanwhile, releases tomorrow in the US, with a UK release on Friday for PS3 and 360. FYI, watch the skies at 4pm today: reviews will start to go live at that point.

Thanks, GI.

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Cowan And Company

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