Michael Pachter has said that the next generation of consoles will not launch until 2013, if at all.
In a recent industry newsletter he sent to our in-boxes, Pachter reiterated what he told us at GDC that this current console generation is that last, and if not – it’s going to be a while.
“We do not expect a “new” console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” he wrote. “We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all.
“We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.
“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6–10 percent for another five years.
“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”
Place your bets now.