Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes PlayStation 4 will outsell Xbox One at retail due to PS4 price and other factors; however, he said in the end it doesn’t matter which console wins, because in 10 years time – consoles will be irrelevant.
Speaking at the London Games Conference today, Pachter said he expects PS4 to sell 100 to 120 million units lifetime, while Xbox One will sell between 90 – 110 million units. Wii U will sell 30 million total during its lifetime on shelves.
“We think 30 million is where [Wii U] is set,” said Pachter. “If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U.”
Pachter said PS4 will have an edge at retail not only due to its price, but because “gamers do not want Kinect,”; however, Xbox One’s TV functionality could become the system’s killer app should various TV services offer users a subsidy on the console.
He is also of the opinion that this is the last console generation, and the market will hit an install base of between 220 and 260 million.
“I don’t think the console market will get any bigger,” he said. “The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years. We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile.
“And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device.”
PS4 launches in North America this Friday, and on November 29 in Europe. Xbox One launches in both regions on November 22.