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PS4 to outsell Xbox One, consoles to be irrelevant in 10 years – Pachter

Wednesday, 13th November 2013 18:01 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes PlayStation 4 will outsell Xbox One at retail due to PS4 price and other factors; however, he said in the end it doesn’t matter which console wins, because in 10 years time – consoles will be irrelevant.

Speaking at the London Games Conference today, Pachter said he expects PS4 to sell 100 to 120 million units lifetime, while Xbox One will sell between 90 – 110 million units. Wii U will sell 30 million total during its lifetime on shelves.

“We think 30 million is where [Wii U] is set,” said Pachter. “If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U.”

Pachter said PS4 will have an edge at retail not only due to its price, but because “gamers do not want Kinect,”; however, Xbox One’s TV functionality could become the system’s killer app should various TV services offer users a subsidy on the console.

He is also of the opinion that this is the last console generation, and the market will hit an install base of between 220 and 260 million.

“I don’t think the console market will get any bigger,” he said. “The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years. We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile.

“And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device.”

PS4 launches in North America this Friday, and on November 29 in Europe. Xbox One launches in both regions on November 22.

Thanks, MCV.

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31 Comments

  1. Fethennour

    Go home, Pachter. You’re drunk (as usual).

    #1 1 year ago
  2. Bomba Luigi

    You mean like Handhelds are Irrelevant since about 5 Years now?

    #2 1 year ago
  3. Dragon

    Agreed.
    “If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U.”

    Now that is class :D

    #3 1 year ago
  4. DSB

    He’s not saying they definitely will be irrelevant Steph, that’s a bad quote. He’s saying they might. If you changed that to “May be irrelevant in 10 years” it would be closer to what he said.

    And I think that’s a pretty decent thing to say, since no one has any idea where we’ll be in 10 years time.

    CLOUDVANA.

    I doubt it.

    #4 1 year ago
  5. Beta

    Keyword popping up “think”

    I don’t think this is the end of consoles. Look ma I’m an analyst!

    #5 1 year ago
  6. Erthazus

    This depends only on what experiences consoles will provide.

    So far consoles are trying to emulate PC version Free2Play as something new. That does not work.
    consoles will be relevant if they will make sure that they can provide the experience that no other system have.

    and so far they can’t. Oculus Rift will be next year and it is not coming to PS4 or Xbox One already.

    #6 1 year ago
  7. John117

    If Microsoft manages to market the “Can show TV” and hopefully soon to be announced “gift games to friends” good enough I can imagine enough casual gamer people buying the Xbox One as an all in one machine. Kinda the same as what happened too the Wii although different since the Wii was a parents cheap option of buying the kids a game console.

    #7 1 year ago
  8. Erthazus

    “Can show TV”… your TV can’t show you “TV”?

    “gift games to friends”

    Steam does it for like eternity. Nothing new or exciting.

    That’s not going to make casual gamer buy a system for 500$ or less. Casual gamer probably have right now Wii or iPad/iPhone/Android tablet/Android smartphone and it is satisfied with it.

    #8 1 year ago
  9. Nephilimator

    yeah xbone suk

    #9 1 year ago
  10. acecslider

    I careless about sony and what they sale it does not benefit any of
    us .I like when these critics come out of there caves it’s like there
    some great hope the foresee the future some how.

    you got to love these stock pushers.

    #10 1 year ago
  11. gomersoul

    So a product that reaches 200 million households plus is irrelevant. Fucking brilliant analysis again. They weren’t irrelevant in the early days, they’re not now and never will be, they will be different but never irrelevant, what are gamers gonna do without them? Angry birds on a smartphone? Yeah very good. There is a large amount of people interested in consoles, more than ever infact. Handheld games machines are the only ones in danger, the home console won’t die until the pc does, so never

    #11 1 year ago
  12. acecslider

    it’s better to be a xbone than a sony twat .

    #12 1 year ago
  13. Ekona

    It’s better to be neither really, and just embrace games as a medium.

    #13 1 year ago
  14. Nephilimator

    hahaha xbox suck so hard lose big battle, rrod junk shit

    #14 1 year ago
  15. x1xCLUTCHx8x

    These consoles may be irrelevant in a decade but consoles as a whole will thrive. Whether it’s the ps5 or XboxTwo or some form of Steambox. The reason they do so well is ease of use. Buy the game, play the game. No os problems or driver updates or compatibility problems. Simple plug and play.

    #15 1 year ago
  16. acecslider

    :)

    #16 1 year ago
  17. bradk825

    It depends what you mean by last console generation.

    If you are talking about an all-in-one device that will be my phone, TV, gaming, computer and babysitter, and you don’t want to call that a console, then sure.

    If one is talking about cell phones replacing consoles they’re fucking retarded and/or have no understanding of gamers.

    #17 1 year ago
  18. DSB

    @8 I think you need to study what TV is like in the US. It’s horribly expensive and the service isn’t very good.

    So creating TV-over-IP services that you can subscribe to online and stream to a device you already own – Rather than getting the same thing in some entirely seperate ugly old box sent you to by Comcast for the price of 100 dollars a month, for 500 channels you don’t need, is really going to be incredibly attractive to a lot of people.

    The internet and cable/sattelite TV markets in the US are completely fucking FUBAR. I was pretty damn shocked to see how bad it was. I think the vast majority of European countries have it far better.

    #18 1 year ago
  19. bradk825

    @18 I knew their phone and cellular service was bad but I didn’t know TV was that bad. It’s actually kind of funny that a lot of people here in Canada talk shit about our cell providers and don’t realize they are the best in North America, so I don’t kow what kind of service they expect, lol. I just have a cheap one and I have never dropped a call on it (knock on wood).

    That kind of makes it sound like I work for them, lol, disclaimer: I don’t. I work for an oil company.

    TV service is actually pretty good here, but if I were able to do my TV subcription on the same device that I do my gaming through I would prefer it. If this becomes an option down the road I’ll probably take it, especially if I can bundle my Gold membership or something.

    #19 1 year ago
  20. yeoung

    “And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device.”

    While I certainly look forward to getting in some quick games of BF4 on my shower nozzle before work, this man is either underestimating the pull of hardcore gamers, or completely misappropriating the mobile front’s place in the gaming landscape.

    While processing power on today’s handhelds may seem negligible by standards that will be set in the not-too-distant-right-around-the-time-of-hoverboards-future, this doesn’t mean that other parameters such as input, immersion, etc. make similar strides towards closing the gap between handhelds and the dedicated console. In fact I believe it to be a preposterous notion in and of itself, completely discrediting any assertion born of such a perspective, thus invalidating the entire statement.

    #20 1 year ago
  21. Gekidami

    I get where he’s coming from but for this to work the majority of the worlds internet infrastructure needs to be top notch. That might be in 10 years, but till then people arent going to deal with Cloud tech as a primary source of their games. They’ll rely on independent game devices.

    Of course game publishers and platform holders arent going to sit on their asses doing nothing, both Sony & MS are already invested in cloud gaming.

    #21 1 year ago
  22. Erthazus

    @DSB, Well, US on the other hand have fantastic services that a lot of European folks including me want from the US. US have like hundred of services where you can subscribe and buy/rent a ton of stuff. In Europe all this stuff is very limited and Xbox 360 services proves that in EU.
    And in my opinion TV thing is outdated in the age of the internet. Modern citizen have so much more info or videos at the internet that TV become’s irrelevant and outdated for some people IMO.
    + I know for sure that the biggest channels in the future will do streaming of their channels on the internet so the whole TV thing soon can be forgotten.

    Not sure how this TV thing will work out really for Microsoft.

    @Gekidami, cloud gaming is still a big fad right now on all platforms. Even if Sony will launch Gaikai next year it’s service will be not that great and won’t provide the same experience as if you buy a game at your store or PSN to play in full 1080p image. IMO

    #22 1 year ago
  23. runbmp

    here we go, another Pachter prediction… I find it so hard to take this guy seriously, he made a lot of bad predictions… and the few he’s made correctly were so vague to begin with. He makes so many he’s bound to land a few right ones.

    He shouldn’t be predicting anything gaming related…

    #23 1 year ago
  24. Ekona

    It bothers me more that this is being reported by anyone, as opposed to my ire at Pachter making another ‘prediction’.

    Seriously, he’s a massive nobody as far as I can see. Big job, little credibility.

    #24 1 year ago
  25. wildBoar

    How much safer can predictions get? Because I do believe this is the 100th time I’ve heard the “consoles will be irrelevant” bit, and it’s no doubt a good yet vague guess.

    And PS4 has already outsold Xbox One on pre-orders.. Pacther, he’s the Nostradamus of our time.

    #25 1 year ago
  26. Nephilimator

    PS4 outsellf XBONSE suck

    #26 1 year ago
  27. Chuckdeezie503

    @20 Oh Yeah Only 2 More years man, October 21st 2015, Hover boards! Can’t Fing wait!

    #27 1 year ago
  28. Mus42

    I guess if you say something enough times it must become the truth right?

    #28 1 year ago
  29. MrWaffles

    Wait, is Pachter predicting something obvious again? Give this man a prize.

    #29 1 year ago
  30. Nephilimator

    God xbone suckbad hard

    #30 1 year ago
  31. thehunrafael

    Stfu Patcher. I respect the fact that you don’t like the wii u, but you can go and shove your insulting way of expressing yourself up your own mouth.

    #31 1 year ago

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