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PS4 to outsell Xbox One, consoles to be irrelevant in 10 years – Pachter

Wednesday, 13 November 2013 18:01 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes PlayStation 4 will outsell Xbox One at retail due to PS4 price and other factors; however, he said in the end it doesn’t matter which console wins, because in 10 years time – consoles will be irrelevant.

Speaking at the London Games Conference today, Pachter said he expects PS4 to sell 100 to 120 million units lifetime, while Xbox One will sell between 90 – 110 million units. Wii U will sell 30 million total during its lifetime on shelves.

“We think 30 million is where [Wii U] is set,” said Pachter. “If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U.”

Pachter said PS4 will have an edge at retail not only due to its price, but because “gamers do not want Kinect,”; however, Xbox One’s TV functionality could become the system’s killer app should various TV services offer users a subsidy on the console.

He is also of the opinion that this is the last console generation, and the market will hit an install base of between 220 and 260 million.

“I don’t think the console market will get any bigger,” he said. “The console installed base has peaked. Consoles may not be relevant in 10 years. We have expanded the market beyond the hardcore console owner. We now have ten times the audience over the internet, six times the audience over mobile.

“And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device.”

PS4 launches in North America this Friday, and on November 29 in Europe. Xbox One launches in both regions on November 22.

Thanks, MCV.

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31 Comments

  1. Fethennour

    Go home, Pachter. You’re drunk (as usual).

    #1 1 year ago
  2. Bomba Luigi

    You mean like Handhelds are Irrelevant since about 5 Years now?

    #2 1 year ago
  3. Dragon

    Agreed.
    “If you are a Nintendo fan bitching about my opinion on Wii U, stop, put your money where your mouth is and buy a Wii U.”

    Now that is class :D

    #3 1 year ago
  4. DSB

    He’s not saying they definitely will be irrelevant Steph, that’s a bad quote. He’s saying they might. If you changed that to “May be irrelevant in 10 years” it would be closer to what he said.

    And I think that’s a pretty decent thing to say, since no one has any idea where we’ll be in 10 years time.

    CLOUDVANA.

    I doubt it.

    #4 1 year ago
  5. Beta

    Keyword popping up “think”

    I don’t think this is the end of consoles. Look ma I’m an analyst!

    #5 1 year ago
  6. Erthazus

    This depends only on what experiences consoles will provide.

    So far consoles are trying to emulate PC version Free2Play as something new. That does not work.
    consoles will be relevant if they will make sure that they can provide the experience that no other system have.

    and so far they can’t. Oculus Rift will be next year and it is not coming to PS4 or Xbox One already.

    #6 1 year ago
  7. John117

    If Microsoft manages to market the “Can show TV” and hopefully soon to be announced “gift games to friends” good enough I can imagine enough casual gamer people buying the Xbox One as an all in one machine. Kinda the same as what happened too the Wii although different since the Wii was a parents cheap option of buying the kids a game console.

    #7 1 year ago
  8. Erthazus

    “Can show TV”… your TV can’t show you “TV”?

    “gift games to friends”

    Steam does it for like eternity. Nothing new or exciting.

    That’s not going to make casual gamer buy a system for 500$ or less. Casual gamer probably have right now Wii or iPad/iPhone/Android tablet/Android smartphone and it is satisfied with it.

    #8 1 year ago
  9. Nephilimator

    yeah xbone suk

    #9 1 year ago
  10. acecslider

    I careless about sony and what they sale it does not benefit any of
    us .I like when these critics come out of there caves it’s like there
    some great hope the foresee the future some how.

    you got to love these stock pushers.

    #10 1 year ago
  11. gomersoul

    So a product that reaches 200 million households plus is irrelevant. Fucking brilliant analysis again. They weren’t irrelevant in the early days, they’re not now and never will be, they will be different but never irrelevant, what are gamers gonna do without them? Angry birds on a smartphone? Yeah very good. There is a large amount of people interested in consoles, more than ever infact. Handheld games machines are the only ones in danger, the home console won’t die until the pc does, so never

    #11 1 year ago
  12. acecslider

    it’s better to be a xbone than a sony twat .

    #12 1 year ago
  13. Ekona

    It’s better to be neither really, and just embrace games as a medium.

    #13 1 year ago
  14. Nephilimator

    hahaha xbox suck so hard lose big battle, rrod junk shit

    #14 1 year ago
  15. x1xCLUTCHx8x

    These consoles may be irrelevant in a decade but consoles as a whole will thrive. Whether it’s the ps5 or XboxTwo or some form of Steambox. The reason they do so well is ease of use. Buy the game, play the game. No os problems or driver updates or compatibility problems. Simple plug and play.

    #15 1 year ago
  16. acecslider

    :)

    #16 1 year ago
  17. bradk825

    It depends what you mean by last console generation.

    If you are talking about an all-in-one device that will be my phone, TV, gaming, computer and babysitter, and you don’t want to call that a console, then sure.

    If one is talking about cell phones replacing consoles they’re fucking retarded and/or have no understanding of gamers.

    #17 1 year ago
  18. DSB

    @8 I think you need to study what TV is like in the US. It’s horribly expensive and the service isn’t very good.

    So creating TV-over-IP services that you can subscribe to online and stream to a device you already own – Rather than getting the same thing in some entirely seperate ugly old box sent you to by Comcast for the price of 100 dollars a month, for 500 channels you don’t need, is really going to be incredibly attractive to a lot of people.

    The internet and cable/sattelite TV markets in the US are completely fucking FUBAR. I was pretty damn shocked to see how bad it was. I think the vast majority of European countries have it far better.

    #18 1 year ago
  19. bradk825

    @18 I knew their phone and cellular service was bad but I didn’t know TV was that bad. It’s actually kind of funny that a lot of people here in Canada talk shit about our cell providers and don’t realize they are the best in North America, so I don’t kow what kind of service they expect, lol. I just have a cheap one and I have never dropped a call on it (knock on wood).

    That kind of makes it sound like I work for them, lol, disclaimer: I don’t. I work for an oil company.

    TV service is actually pretty good here, but if I were able to do my TV subcription on the same device that I do my gaming through I would prefer it. If this becomes an option down the road I’ll probably take it, especially if I can bundle my Gold membership or something.

    #19 1 year ago
  20. yeoung

    “And I think one day you’ll get to play any game, anywhere on any device.”

    While I certainly look forward to getting in some quick games of BF4 on my shower nozzle before work, this man is either underestimating the pull of hardcore gamers, or completely misappropriating the mobile front’s place in the gaming landscape.

    While processing power on today’s handhelds may seem negligible by standards that will be set in the not-too-distant-right-around-the-time-of-hoverboards-future, this doesn’t mean that other parameters such as input, immersion, etc. make similar strides towards closing the gap between handhelds and the dedicated console. In fact I believe it to be a preposterous notion in and of itself, completely discrediting any assertion born of such a perspective, thus invalidating the entire statement.

    #20 1 year ago
  21. Gekidami

    I get where he’s coming from but for this to work the majority of the worlds internet infrastructure needs to be top notch. That might be in 10 years, but till then people arent going to deal with Cloud tech as a primary source of their games. They’ll rely on independent game devices.

    Of course game publishers and platform holders arent going to sit on their asses doing nothing, both Sony & MS are already invested in cloud gaming.

    #21 1 year ago
  22. Erthazus

    @DSB, Well, US on the other hand have fantastic services that a lot of European folks including me want from the US. US have like hundred of services where you can subscribe and buy/rent a ton of stuff. In Europe all this stuff is very limited and Xbox 360 services proves that in EU.
    And in my opinion TV thing is outdated in the age of the internet. Modern citizen have so much more info or videos at the internet that TV become’s irrelevant and outdated for some people IMO.
    + I know for sure that the biggest channels in the future will do streaming of their channels on the internet so the whole TV thing soon can be forgotten.

    Not sure how this TV thing will work out really for Microsoft.

    @Gekidami, cloud gaming is still a big fad right now on all platforms. Even if Sony will launch Gaikai next year it’s service will be not that great and won’t provide the same experience as if you buy a game at your store or PSN to play in full 1080p image. IMO

    #22 1 year ago
  23. runbmp

    here we go, another Pachter prediction… I find it so hard to take this guy seriously, he made a lot of bad predictions… and the few he’s made correctly were so vague to begin with. He makes so many he’s bound to land a few right ones.

    He shouldn’t be predicting anything gaming related…

    #23 1 year ago
  24. Ekona

    It bothers me more that this is being reported by anyone, as opposed to my ire at Pachter making another ‘prediction’.

    Seriously, he’s a massive nobody as far as I can see. Big job, little credibility.

    #24 1 year ago
  25. wildBoar

    How much safer can predictions get? Because I do believe this is the 100th time I’ve heard the “consoles will be irrelevant” bit, and it’s no doubt a good yet vague guess.

    And PS4 has already outsold Xbox One on pre-orders.. Pacther, he’s the Nostradamus of our time.

    #25 1 year ago
  26. Nephilimator

    PS4 outsellf XBONSE suck

    #26 1 year ago
  27. Chuckdeezie503

    @20 Oh Yeah Only 2 More years man, October 21st 2015, Hover boards! Can’t Fing wait!

    #27 1 year ago
  28. Mus42

    I guess if you say something enough times it must become the truth right?

    #28 1 year ago
  29. MrWaffles

    Wait, is Pachter predicting something obvious again? Give this man a prize.

    #29 1 year ago
  30. Nephilimator

    God xbone suckbad hard

    #30 1 year ago
  31. thehunrafael

    Stfu Patcher. I respect the fact that you don’t like the wii u, but you can go and shove your insulting way of expressing yourself up your own mouth.

    #31 1 year ago

Comments are now closed on this article.

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  • Here’s a look at MGS5: The Phantom Pain emblem creation, limited edition bionic arm

    A look at how to create your own emblems in Metal Gear Solid 5: The Phantom Pain was demonstrated in the latest Kojima Station broadcast, along with a look at the bionic arm replica included in the limited edition. A Venom Snake emblem will come with the limited edition version of the game, parts of […]

  • Elite: Dangerous coming to PS4 once Xbox One exclusivity period ends

    Elite: Dangerous was announced for Xbox One at GDC 2015 yesterday, and those disappointed over the lack of a PlayStation 4 announcement will be pleased to know it’s in the cards. According to Frontier boss David Braben the space-sim will head to PS4 at some point, once the console exclusivity deal with Microsoft has expired. […]

  • Here’s two new The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt screenshots to salivate over

    Two new screenshots from The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt have been released, and they are gorgeous as always. The screenshots follow the two released over the weekend. You can look at the new images in full HD glory over on Only Single Player. CD Projekt Red is at PAX East this weekend showing off the latest […]

  • Microsoft looking into streaming PC games to Xbox One

    With Windows 10, Xbox One users will soon be able to stream their games to PC. Microsoft is also looking into streaming PC games to Xbox One, according to news out of GDC. Speaking with Polygon at GDC 2015, Xbox program director Mike Ybarra said the company is also looking into the ability to stream […]

  • Free! Vindictus Lann Revamp codes worth €25

    We have 400 Lann Revamp codes worth €25 to giveaway for free to VG247 readers. All you need to do is enter your details in the box below and you’ll be given a code to redeem in game. The codes are for warrior character Lann and offer a 7 day unlimited Inner Armour pass, battle […]

  • US eShop update: Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Tipping Stars, OlliOlli, more

    Nintendo has updated the North American end of the eShop with Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Tipping Stars, OlliOlli and a demo version of Azure Striker GUNVOL. Your full update is below. eShop Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Tipping Stars – Wii U, 3DS – Cross Buy OlliOlli – Wii U, 3DS – Cross-Buy Proun+ – Proun+ […]

  • Rock Band 4 confirmed for Xbox One and PS4: supports old instruments and 2,168 songs

    Harmonix has lifted the lid on the long-rumoured Rock Band 4, stating it will support 2,168 previously released tracks and last-gen instruments on PS4 and Xbox One. The game will be out this year. Harmonix has yet to reveal specific features for the game, but it has been built with a completely new engine. As […]

  • First run of Rodea the Sky Soldier copies on Wii U come with Wii version

    The first print run of Rodea the Sky Soldier on Wii U will come with the Wii version packed in, NIS America has confirmed. The publisher confirmed today in a press release that anyone who buys the first run of the retail version of Rodea the Sky Soldier on Wii U will find the Wii […]

  • Unreal Tournament 4 lets modders sell cosmetic items to players

    Unreal Tournament 4 is a game built with the help of the modding community. So it’s only natural that it will feature a marketplace where all cosmetic items can be sold. Epic Games has confirmed that it will allow modders from the community to sell the cosmetics items they’ve created on the game’s marketplace. The […]

  • D4: Dark Dreams Don’t Die is coming to PC – rumour

    SWERY 65 has shown off D4: Dark Dreams Don’t Die running on PC at GDC this week, teasing that a possible port may be on the way. D4: Dark Dreams Don’t Die is SWERY 65′s latest project. An episodic detective affair, D4 came out on Xbox One last September and utilised Kinect as its main […]

  • Valve’s Lighthouse, VR controllers and more explained

    Valve’s less-talked about prototype VR controllers and its Lighthouse technology have been shown in more detail. When HTC announced Vive, the VR headset it’s working on with Valve, it mentioned “base stations” and ergonomic controllers. Now we know what they meant by that. The controllers are still in prototype phase, and will look better when […]

  • Listen to two professional Counter-Strike players explain why Dust2 is so popular

    Hear what makes iconic Counter-Strike map Dust2 one of the most popular maps in shooter history from two former eSports players. Sal “Volcano” Garozzo and Shawn “FMPONE” Snelling are both retired professional Counter-Strike players who are currently working as designers. At GDC this year, the pair hosted a panel titled “Community Level Design for Competitive […]

  • Core Morpheus hardware locked in, no plans for wireless version

    Sony has finalised the core hardware for its VR headset Project Morpheus, and does not currently plan on releasing a wireless version. SCE Worldwide Studios president Shuhei Yoshida spoke to Gamespot at GDC and confirmed that the core hardware of Morpheus is “pretty much done” but that “lots of tweaks and improvements” are still being […]

  • Watch the full Phil Spencer keynote from GDC 2015

    The full GDC 2015 keynote of Xbox boss Phil Spencer is now available to watch. In case you missed last nights’s Phil Spencer keynote at GDC 2015, the whole thing has been made available to watch on YouTube. The address is titled “The Future of Gaming Across the Microsoft Ecosytem,” and it’s where Spencer announced […]

  • Elite: Dangerous won’t be “dumbed down” for Xbox One

    The Xbox One version of Elite: Dangerous will in fact be the same as the PC one. Elite: Dangerous developer Frontier came out on stage last night at GDC to announce the game making its console debut on Xbox One. Some have feared that the port would not provide the same experience as the PC […]

  • Virtual reality: by gum, it’s really happening

    Virtual reality has exited the realm of peripheral gimmick and turned into something that just might go mainstream. VR has an uphill battle ahead of it. The tech is going to be expensive, and there are a number of problems that need to be solved before it could be considered an inclusive technology (motion sickness, […]

  • Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor takes Game of the Year at GDC Awards 2015

    And the winner is: Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor. Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor beat out Alien: Isolation, Bayonetta 2, Destiny, and Hearthstone: Heroes of Warcraft to win Game of the Year at the Game Developer’s Choice Awards 2015. Elsewhere in the awards, Ustwo’s mobile hit Monument Valley was a stand-out favourite, with wins in the Innovation, […]

  • Alien: Isolation was prototyped in third-person – video

    Alien: Isolation is one of the most effectively scary triple-A games in years, but it didn’t start off a perfect creation of pure terror. Creative Assembly prototyped Alien: Isolation in third-person perspective before they nailed down the final approach. The developer revealed this during a GDC 2015 presentation, and it’s a good reminder that games […]

  • Madden 15 added to EA Vault

    Madden 15 is now included in EA’s all-you-can-eat subscriber service. Madden 15 is the ninth game to be added to the EA Vault, a stash of games available on demand for EA Access subscribers. It's still Madden Season for EA Access members – Madden NFL 15 is now in The Vault for all members. Go […]

  • Source Engine 2 doesn’t have hidden costs or royalties – but is Steam exclusive

    Three major engines went free at GDC 2015, and each of them is monetising in a different way. There’s been a heck of a lot of discussion about development tools and the costs associated with them during GDC 2015. First Epic announced that Unreal Engine 4 would be free, bar royalities on successful releases. Then […]

  • Final Fantasy creator hates sequels

    Final Fantasy, a byword in prolific franchises, was created by a man who hates sequel. Final Fantasy games are famous for being reinvented with each core release, and it was not until series creator Hironobu Sakaguchi began to withdraw from the franchise after Final Fantasy 9 that we started seeing regular sequels and spin-offs. Speaking […]

  • Guardian complaints led to the closure of Destiny’s Loot Cave

    Destiny players are to blame for the shuttering of the much loved Loot Cave. Early in Destiny‘s history, many players got hugely excited about the “Loot Cave”. Accessible shortly after starting the game for the first time, this high-volume spawn point allowed players to stand in one place, taking out waves and waves of low-level […]

  • Xbox and PC games boss Phil Harrison to leave Microsoft – rumour

    Microsoft Interactive Entertainment Business VP and EMEA head of games Phil Harrison is rumoured to have thrown in the towel. Microsoft has not issued a statement on Harrison’s alleged departure, despite repeated questioning by press at GDC 2015. Instead, word comes via multiple sources speaking to GamesIndustry at the show. According to the rumours, Harrison […]

  • Metal Gear Online commentated trailer explains stuffed dog – but not invisibility

    Metal Gear Online developer Kojima Productions has provided significantly more insight into how the multiplayer side of The Phantom Pain works. Metal Gear Online is the online multiplayer component of Metal Gear Solid 5: The Phantom Pain. Konami hasn’t shared a great deal about it yet, but we did see a very cool Metal Gear […]

  • Elite: Dangerous Xbox One trailer shows off space MMO

    If Elite: Dangerous looks this good on Xbox One we have nothing to complain about. Microsoft revealed Elite: Dangerous is coming to Xbox One this year during its GDC presentations today. We don’t know very much about the port, but I suppose we ought to have expected it; Frontier Developments has a very close relationship […]

  • Battletoads to appear in Shovel Knight Xbox One

    A Battletoads remake must be on the horizon. Right? Right?? The Battletoads will appear in the upcoming Xbox One version of Shovel Knight, Yacht Club Games revealed today. The Battletoads drop in for a fight! Shovel Knight is headed to Xbox One and meets up with @RareLtd brawling trio! pic.twitter.com/OCQIuWbH3W — Yacht Club Games (@YachtClubGames) […]

  • The Division pre-alpha footage leaks, Ubisoft says it’s well out of date

    The Division fans finally got a look at Ubisoft’s MMO this week, but the publisher has said the footage is not in any way representative. Pre-alpha footage of the The Division was leaked this week, but has since been thoroughly smacked down by takedown notices. All that remains are a few screenshots and a GIF: […]

  • Microsoft HoloLens designer killed in hit and run accident

    Very sad news out of Redmond this week, as Mike Ey was killed in a tragic accident. Ey, 30, was one of the key project designers on Microsoft’s HoloLens AR headset. He was killed on Saturday morning in a rear-end collision. The driver of the second vehicle fled the scene but was tracked down by […]

  • AMD throws support behind VR with new low-latency anti-nausea tech

    GPU manufacturer AMD has released a new SDK compatible with “a broad set of VR devices”. Called LiquidVR, the tech is designed to “bring better content, comfort, and compatibility to VR applications” including games, simulation, entertainment, education, social media, travel, medicine, real estate and ecommerce, apparently. AMD said maintaining comfort and realism in VR environments […]

  • Danganronpa 3 in the works, but a long way off yet

    A new Danganronpa is happening. Danganronpa 3 is in the very, very early production stages, writer Kodaka Kazutaka has confirmed. Nothing about the project is “set in stone”, Kazutaka told Polygon, so there are no details to share yet; the characters and story may change several times before being finalised. The writer said he’s weighing […]

  • Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare MLG Pro League 2015 schedule announced

    Major League Gaming has announced the full schedule for the 2015 Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare MLG Pro League. The eSpots firm revealed two more seasons of Pro League, a live Relegation tournament for Season Three, and a season ending World Championship with $250,000 up for grabs You can watch all the action on MLG.tv […]

  • Happy Birthday PlayStation 2, you are almost old enough to drive

    Amidst all the GDC 2015 hoopla today, we forgot to wish PlayStation 2 a Happy Birthday. The system turned 15 years old today, going by its March 4, 2000 launch date in Japan. It was released in the west that autumn, and had shipped 100 million units in less than six years post launch. PS2 […]

  • Here’s what the final version of Valve’s Steam Controller looks like

    A look at the updated Steam Controller has surfaced via a hands-on post from Polygon. Valve said what you see in the images below is the final version of the controller. The controller has gone through numerous revisions since it was first revealed, but it seems Valve has decided on two touch pads which work […]

  • The Sims, SimCity developer closed down

    The Sims 4 developer Maxis has been shuttered, EA has confirmed. The Sims, SimCity and the rest of the Sim franchise has traditionally been helmed by Maxis, which had its flagship studio in Emeryville, California. Now EA has confirmed with Kotaku that this studio is being closed. “Today we are consolidating Maxis IP development to […]

  • Gigantic MOBA coming to Windows 10 and Xbox One with cross-play

    Today during GDC 2015, Microsoft announced that the new IP from Motiga called Gigantic will be cross-play enabled. Slated for Windows 10 and Xbox One, the five-on-five third-person battle arena game allows the player to select from an array of heroes with distinctive powers and play styles. Players will then make their way through areas […]

  • Here’s a look at Unreal Tournament DirectX 12 gameplay

    Epic Games is creating Unreal Tournament using Unreal Engine 4 running on DirectX 12, which Microsoft says “sets a new bar for visual fidelity.” DirectX 12 is a single API developers can access across Windows devices, which can result in a 20% improvement in performance over DX11 running on the same machine. The Unreal Tournament […]

  • Wireless adapter for Xbox One controllers out later this year

    Microsoft announced at GDC 2015 today it will that all wireless Xbox gaming accessories will be designed for and supported on both Xbox One consoles and Windows 10 PCs moving forward. Later this year, a wireless adapter will be released, allowing current Xbox controllers and future devices to be used wirelessly on PCs. This will […]