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Wii U to beat Wii’s launch records, but not its tail – analyst

Monday, 12 November 2012 23:09 GMT By Brenna Hillier

The Wii U will sell hugely at launch but fail to live up to its simple forebear, according to one analyst firm.

The Wii U consoles will sell 3.5 million units worldwide before the end of December this year, according to IHS Screen Digest, as reported by Forbes.

The Wii sold 3.1 million over a similar period in 2006, so that’s a 12% increase, which IHS believes may lead to stock shortages.

Unfortunately, IHS isn’t back the console to continue this momentum; it predicts about 53.2 million sales in its first four years of life, just 70% of the Wii’s 75.9 million.

“This time around, Wii U’s pure innovation, coupled with a limited volume of high-quality Nintendo software, will not be enough to drive the ongoing sales momentum we witnessed with the Wii console, especially at a higher price point,” IHS senior principal analyst Piers Harding-Rolls explained.

“Long-term success depends on ongoing consumer engagement delivered through the constant release of high-quality content from both first and third parties, a competitive non-games entertainment proposition and a sound digital and online strategy to go along with such innovation. Nintendo is still some way short of delivering a comprehensive engagement-led value proposition at the launch of the Wii U.”

The Wii is the best-selling console of this generation, with close to 100 million units sold worldwide. The Wii U launches on November 18 in the US and November 30 in Europe and beyond.

Thanks, GamesIndustry.

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21 Comments

  1. jogo

    Hi everybody! I’ve been reading gaming news since they exist. Now I finally registered cause I’m sick of it.
    For months now analysts have been “predicting” that the WiiU will a. not be succesfull or b. not as succesfull as the Wii.
    Now that this super analyst read online that WiiU launch sales will surpass those of the Wii, he states it and still resists that it will not be as succesfull as the Wii. In a couple of month he will see that the sales will be constant and will again correct himself, like Pachter has been doing now FOR YEARS. Than they will state we didn’t see these blockbusters, zelda mario 3d, smash maybe metroid, starfox mario kart whatever coming. thats why we predicted wrong.
    the reason is you didn’t because all of you don’t know games just business, nintendo is about games, that drives their business, not numbers.

    Before the DS, and I’m not a fanboy, I said it will be a success. Analysts said no.
    Same before the Wii
    Same before the 3ds
    And you know what? they are the most succesfull consoles of their generation, all of them.
    And the WiiU surprise will be succesfsull too.

    And… if the 3ds had had the software for the first months a pricedrop wouldn’T even have been necessary.

    The WiiU is very cheap for what it offers, Nintendo is loosing money on it.
    And it has innovation and games no competitor will ever have. It has a big chance to win that generation too.

    TO ALL ANALYSTS MAINLY PACHTER:

    I predigt: It will not dreamcast itself.
    Nintendo has very much clue about what they are doing.
    They have a great online strategy.
    It will be a success.

    And I predict alot of excuses and corrections from all the business guys that should stop talking abput games when thats nothing they know anything about. Analysts are right for microsoft and sony because these are business companies and they “get” them, but that doesn’t work for nintendo.
    PACHTER can you finally admit that???
    Silence to all business analysts regarding Nintendo.
    It really starts to get boring.
    Maybe we should start predicting what analysts will predict, that will be very easy… So they start to be obsolete.

    Thanks

    #1 2 years ago
  2. TheBarstow

    53million in it first 4 years isn’t a bad figure at all. In fact, if current market conditions are taken in to considerations, that figure is very good.

    If the Wii U has a 6 year life cycle it may even be able to surpass the 60 million mark.

    I hope these analysts are right.

    #2 2 years ago
  3. OlderGamer

    “Hi everybody! I’ve been reading gaming news since they exist. Now I finally registered cause I’m sick of it.”

    Welcome to our little corner of the web and game industry, Jogo.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. Jogo

    Thanks! Love the gaming community!

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Mike W

    Well I will be picking this up on Sunday with ninja gaiden and zombie u.

    #5 2 years ago
  6. Dragon246

    @1
    Do you realize you are doing the same things as them ? And these analysts say with some knowledge because that’s their jobs.
    Also I really don’t think (like most others), the wiiu will get anything closer to wii figures. Ninty showed its hands early with wiiu, both ms and sony have ample opportunity to get back in the game.
    “The WiiU is very cheap for what it offers, Nintendo is loosing money on it.”
    Absolutely wrong imo. Current gen tech with smaller fabrication processes results in cheaper manufacturing process, not costlier.If they were selling it at a loss, they would have expected operating losses instead of profit. Tablets aren’t costly to manufacture now.
    “They have a great online strategy.”
    Ninty with great online strategy? Ha. You are kidding right? Both psn and xbl beat it to a pulp.
    “And… if the 3ds had had the software for the first months a pricedrop wouldn’T even have been necessary.”
    Stop kidding yourself there. 3DS would have suck like a ship without a price drop, no amount of games could have saved it, just like vita.
    That said, getting unity for devs and tvi looks interesting. Although saying anything now about sales would be premature.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. Jogo

    Oh common, not really.

    Just google how often (I’ll help you: always) the analysts have been wrong about nintendos machines: ds wii 3ds. Have you even tried to understand what I wrote. Its not predictions. Its facts from the past plus the wii u preorders are better than the Wiis and the big games are yet to come – how hard is it too see that it will do well?? BEtter asked why would anyone think they won’t do well.

    You practically proved yourself wrong with every point you made. Microsoft and sony had ample opoortunity with motion gaming since nintendo showed its hands early, did it help – no.
    Both their efforts are ar from being as succesfull as nintendos. Imagine the last generation without nintendo.
    The industry would be in trouble without all the new people coming too gaming through nintendo.

    Next one:
    Absolutely wrong imo. Current gen tech with smaller fabrication processes results in cheaper manufacturing process, not costlier.If they were selling it at a loss, they would have expected operating losses instead of profit. Tablets aren’t costly to manufacture now.

    Google first
    Nintendo publicly stated that WiiU is sold at a loss,
    what are you doing on this site.
    You think they would state something that is bad for investors if it wasn’t true?
    At least you should give in to this.

    “They have a great online strategy.”
    Ninty with great online strategy? Ha. You are kidding right? Both psn and xbl beat it to a pulp.
    You don’t know anything about their strategy right? Well thi is the only prediction that i made.
    based on these facts: former xbla staff helped on it. they have video chat for everyone. most of the games will be digital too on day one. Again just google for this stuff. No friendcodes anymore. the 3ds online system is already pretty ok….

    “And… if the 3ds had had the software for the first months a pricedrop wouldn’T even have been necessary.”
    Stop kidding yourself there. 3DS would have suck like a ship without a price drop, no amount of games could have saved it, just like vita.
    That said, getting unity for devs and tvi looks interesting. Although saying anything now about sales would be premature.

    Again
    The vita still doesn’t have games thats why it still sells crappy. The 3ds now has the games and is doing good. The games helped more than the price cut.

    Do you know Pascher? If so you would have to understand what i am talking about, i was a fan of his until I realized he just doesn’t get nintendo. Just giove me one prediction from him about nintendo that he was right with? Will be hard for you although its his job to predict, and he should have some knowledge.

    #7 2 years ago
  8. Digital Bamboo

    I don’t think anyone ever thought that the Wii U was going to outsell the Wii in the long run. Just look at the controllers.

    Part of the reason why the Wii has sold nearly 100M units is because it can be played by almost anyone, regardless of age, experience, or strong coordination. I’m not trying to be funny here, I’m not knocking the Wii, I just got one a few months ago & I love it, but it’s true. Some people just can’t deal with a standard game controller.

    The Wii U’s gamepad requires a certain amount of experience with game controllers in order to use, experience I suspect a considerable chunk of Wii users who never moved beyond Wii bowling lack.

    Having said that, who knows how many experienced players will pick up the Wii U for HD Mario et al., stronger 3rd party support & indie games. Only time will tell.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Dragon246

    @7
    I am really not in a mood to argue but here goes-
    1.Analysts have been wrong on ms and sony too.
    2.” wii u preorders are better than the Wiis”
    When was this said?
    3.”Nintendo publicly stated that WiiU is sold at a loss”
    Yeah I know,allow me to rephrase that, they aren’t selling it at a substantial loss, that too not because of manufacturing cost, which would be cheaper for such an old tech.
    4.”former xbla staff helped on it. they have video chat for everyone. most of the games will be digital too on day one.”
    So? Video chat can be done by present gen consoles/any other device using skype. With no unified online gaming, its bound to suck in comparison to psn-xbl. Play something else other than ninty and you will understand.
    5.”The games helped more than the price cut.”
    Its just not true. Almost everyone agrees here on this.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. OrbitMonkey

    ^ Not in mood to argue… Delivers multi-paragraph argument.

    :-/

    #10 2 years ago
  11. Gadzooks!

    I’m getting more and more concerned that WiiU isn’t what I hoped it would be, specifically regarding the online service.

    No unified voice chat, no achievement system, etc.

    The online service needed to be front-and-centre, but seems to once again be an afterthought.

    I’ve gone from ‘must preorder’ to ‘probably buy in launch window’ to ‘need to try it first’.

    At the same time, seeing the almost generational leap 343 made with Halo4, I’m really not feeling the need for new hardware right now, even though I think that WiiU controller will rock.

    I hope the WiiU blows my socks off when I get round to trying one, but at the moment the more is revealed the less I’m excited for it.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. DrDamn

    @Jogo
    Welcome to the site. :)

    Couple of points.

    Pre-orders. Are these shop pre-orders or people pre-orders? Wii-U could sell more that Wii on launch simply by having a better supply. Wii exploded once people got to actually play it. In terms of better tail? I don’t see Wii-U exploding like Wii did in the first couple of years, not based on what they have shown so far. Wii had Wii Sports – it was a fantastic killer title which encompassed what the Wii brought to the table. As a gamer I’m fascinated by what the WiiU will be able to do, and actually I think as a games machine it is much better than the Wii, but I don’t see a Wii Sports which will sell it on to the masses post launch window yet. Not that there won’t be something – but I haven’t seen it yet.

    Looking forward past the launch window I don’t think it will reach the peak sales numbers of the Wii, but then it may not have sales numbers falling off a cliff too.

    Online wise everything you’ve said shows Nintendo are improving on what they have done before. However improving on a turd ain’t tricky, they have a big way to catch up. We just don’t have enough info at this point to make any calls. For all we know they could just be rolling that turd in glitter. On the plus side there is a lot of system RAM they are reserving for the OS – so there is a lot of potential here. I doubt it will all be there at launch though.

    I’ve still got my Wii-U pre-order(s), but the outlay is quite big for me (as I no longer have a Wii) to get the most out of it. I’ll make a call post US launch. I think it’s a great machine which will do ok and have some great games for it – more great game than the Wii. Still don’t think it will sell as well overall though.

    #12 2 years ago
  13. ManuOtaku

    Jogo welcome to this site, and welcome to the NDF (Nintendo Defense Force) :)

    Regarding what you say i do think the WiiU will do better than the Wii, in a lots of aspects, it will have stronger third party support, it will have a better online experience, the gap will be not as a big as with the wii was comparing it with the competition, graphically speaking, theres an important % of people that do owns a wii, and will jump to the WiiU, etc, for all these previous mentioned reasons, i believe it will do better, now the thing and more important issue, all this factors will transfer to overall sales, well i guess yes, the WiiU will have more legs than the Wii did, and because of this it will do aprox. the same numbers in the long run, and even surpass it.

    #13 2 years ago
  14. DrDamn

    @13
    I think it could do, but it also depends what Sony, MS and ? do too. WiiU has potential to have a longer and more consistent tail, even if it never peaks as high as Wii on a weekly basis. It does depend a lot on what others do though.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. ManuOtaku

    #14 i do agree Doc, is earlier to tell , but it seems like it has the elements to achive that goal, but like you said it will also depends on the competition, in specs, price factor and overall strategy from both Sony and Microsoft, and last but not least the overall economy situation in japan, and globally.

    #15 2 years ago
  16. Jogo

    I’ll just comment on this:
    Play something else other than ninty and you will understand.

    I only have an Xbox 360, no Wii, as i said I am not a fanboy. I want HD graphics, I hope they will remake Galaxy and other titles in HD.
    And I didn’t like the motion controls too much. But it was good still, just not for me.
    And it was good for the industry.
    Nintendo keeps innovating – you.. keep hating :-)

    #16 2 years ago
  17. Jogo

    Amazon france has wii U listings for mario kart star fox and Zelda by the way.
    But I don’t think they have more information on those than we have..

    #17 2 years ago
  18. Jogo

    @Dragon246:

    What I would never do would be going on a site for Xbox 360 or Playstation 3 and post there that people should try the WiiU thats its better and whatnot. Why do xbox and playstation guys do that?

    Bored of your console..ha? HaHa

    Why can’t people just have fun like the nintendo fans are, I don’t see much hate coming from them, maybe cause nintendo raignes supremely since years now..

    #18 2 years ago
  19. OlderGamer

    Dragon

    “2.” wii u preorders are better than the Wiis”
    When was this said?”

    “Wii U launches next week in the US, and Nintendo is anticipating big sales throughout the holiday. In fact, according to research firm IHS Screen Digest, the Wii U will actually outpace the original Wii’s holiday sales start with 3.5 million units sold between November and December, which would represent a 12 percent jump over the Wii’s start of 3.1 million sold.”

    —- http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2012-11-12-wii-u-to-sell-3-5-million-units-globally-this-holiday-ihs

    It means nothing in the grand scheme of things. People that don’t want to like the system or nintendo for that matter, won’t change their minds. Going to keep hearing the same tired worn out arguements like it is old tech or nintendo is just for kids. But I have recently played a WiiU (more then just the demo of Rayman mind you). I am not going to go into too much detail, I don’t want anyone getting into trouble. What I can say tho is that the system kicks complete ass. Period.

    Most of the games I have played the graphics are ahead of where xb360/ps3 games are. On average. What I noticed most was the colors poped. I mean really poped. And the chars in game where big. the controler was great. It was light, contoured in my hand perfectly. It felt solid and well built. The screen was crisp, easy to use, and was really integrated well depending on the game.

    I had made a few posts here about wanting to sell the system, maybe ebay it for extra xmass cash. I am 100% keeping it now.

    I am not an WiiU spokesperson or expert or any such thing, but in my mind if you want the WiiU to be a PS360, you are better off staying with PS360. It isn’t going to have xross game chat. It isn’t going to have achivies. It isn’t going to be a haven for OMP shooters. It is going to be a Nintendo system. If you enjoy Nintendo games, want them in HD, are excited about a second screen, like to play online(but don’t center your gaming around it), then this system is for you.

    I for one am glad Nintendo is being Nintendo and not trying to copy MS. I already own a xb360. And I am not selling it anytime soon. So if I want to play BF3, I can still do that. Buying a WiiU won’t change that.

    At this point I am so thirsty for new hardware/software and new game experiences that I can’t help but be excited. Actualy playing the thing put all of my fears to rest. Read what the game press is actualy saying about the system. They think it is cool, neat, fun, great, holds lots of promise, etc. Their concern is in wondering if enough people will buy it and will it be able to sustain itself over the long haul. They don’t question the quality of the hardware itself, only if sells.

    That is a silly thing to worry about. But as jurnos it is part of their job to anylize the thing. Because as a gamer, I want to know about the quality of the system, the games, and the potiental fun factor for me personialy. And I am not going to to sit around and wonder/worry if all of my friends are going to buy one or if the system will have a ten year lifecycle(lets hope not).

    So in the long run if you like nintendo and are interested buy the system. If you don’t like nintendo you aren’t honestly thinking about a purchase to begin with. If you are on the fence or aren’t an early adaptor, no biggie. Just do what is right by you. After all at the end of the day you are the one playing it.

    #19 2 years ago
  20. DrDamn

    @OG
    “Most of the games I have played the graphics are ahead of where xb360/ps3 games are. On average. What I noticed most was the colors poped. I mean really poped.”

    I’ve heard this sort of thing from a friend who has played one too. Not that there is a massive polygon increase or resolution jump, but that the image quality was better. Better effects, better blending, better aliasing sort of thing.

    “I for one am glad Nintendo is being Nintendo and not trying to copy MS.”

    Disagree to an extent here. Nintendo can still be Nintendo, that does not preclude coming up to scratch on accepted industry standards though. It shouldn’t allow them licence to be crap is what I’m saying :). I understand it’s not so important for you, but you can’t make out it’s a good thing when addressing these points – which are important to others – would ultimately attract more gamers to the machine. They can still be Nintendo within these boundaries.

    #20 2 years ago
  21. Cobra951

    @19:
    Thank you for the unofficial report, OG. I have been lamenting that the Wii U is the first Nintendo console that I am not at all excited about. Your good experience chips away at that wall. But I will still wait and see what shakes before I jump in (if I ever do). Good hardware is only one fraction of the requirements, and I don’t have anywhere near a good vibe about the software at this point.

    #21 2 years ago

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