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Pachter: Modern Warfare 3 sales to reach $1.1 billion in six weeks

Friday, 4th November 2011 00:19 GMT By Brenna Hillier

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expects Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 to outdo every other game this year.

“Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 will likely be the year’s top-selling game,” Pachter said in a note to investors, as reported by IndustryGamers.

“If MW3 receives strong review scores (≈ 85 or above on Metacritic.com), it should at least match predecessor Black Ops’ sales (over 25 million units).”

In fact, Pachter said that he expected Modern Warfare 3 to follow sales trends and outdo its precursor.

“[I] would bet that [Modern warfare 3 sales] are 10% higher over the same time frame, so $1.1 billion in the first six weeks,” he said.

The analyst also said he expected between 3 and 4 million players would subscribe to the premium version Call of Duty Elite, the franchise’s new social network.

Modern Warfare 3 launches next week on PC, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360.

Thanks, Destructoid.

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37 Comments

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  1. Colin Gallacher

    Give that man a gold star.

    #1 3 years ago
  2. AJacks92

    Analyst? More like fanboy. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if sales were much lower.

    #2 3 years ago
  3. Noodlemanny

    @2
    Or not. Or really not.

    #3 3 years ago
  4. Phoenixblight

    Really can I get paid for spouting bullshit too? Sounds like an awesome gig.

    #4 3 years ago
  5. Yoshi

    @4 Well Pachter does game predictions for fun however the passed few days we’ve seen predictions from “real” analysts.

    How do people become an analyst?

    #5 3 years ago
  6. tmac2011

    i hate patcher and hate hearing what he has to say, i don’t care, i like call of duty.

    #6 3 years ago
  7. IL DUCE

    @5 I assume you would just start making stuff up and hope people listen then hope some company hires you to make some more stuff up…lol

    But yeah people buy the game because of the name of the box…MW3 could get 60s and it would still break sales records as long as “Call of Duty” is printed on there

    #7 3 years ago
  8. G1GAHURTZ

    I think it’s going to sell a lot more than BO, and I think the MetaCritic will be between 88 and 90.

    #8 3 years ago
  9. OrbitMonkey

    I’ll be more interested in what the xbot Live mp charts will say. That’s a pretty good litmus test.

    #9 3 years ago
  10. ASBI

    http://majornelson.com/2011/11/02/live-activity-for-week-of-october-24th/

    look at this, even BF3 and other 2011 games couldnt beat a 2009 game
    all the CODs are on the list :)

    #10 3 years ago
  11. OrbitMonkey

    ^ Going straight in a number 3 is good though. EA/Dice can be happy with that. Especially if they keep that spot.

    Proves their providing a viable alternative to CoD, which was their goal.

    #11 3 years ago
  12. G1GAHURTZ

    I’ll be more interested to see how long BF3 can stay in the top 10. Bugs/problems aside, this will be the real proof of the quality of the MP experience that they’re offering.

    BC2 sold around 9m copies on all formats, but (iirc) after an initial high position, it dropped out of the XBL most played charts a few months later, never to return.

    #12 3 years ago
  13. Dannybuoy

    The loudest voice is the one that gets paid

    #13 3 years ago
  14. Deacon

    @12 – it won’t be the ‘real proof of the quality of the MP experience’.
    It’ll simply show us how many people would rather play CoD over BF3.
    As many of us say, again and again, popularity doesn’t make game X better than game Z.

    BF3 could well be the better game (completely based on opinion of course), but CoD will (for now at least) always win on numbers due to it being very easy to get into, and never too much of a departure from the previous iteration.

    FACT: The world is full of idiots.

    #14 3 years ago
  15. G1GAHURTZ

    Seriously, why do people assume that I’m always comparing BF to CoD??

    I’m not making a comparison between the two.

    ‘BF beating CoD’ and ‘BF dropping off/increasing in popularity’ are two completely different things.

    I’m not expecting BF to beat CoD. No-one (with any brains) is.

    I’m simply saying that if the game truly is good, people will keep playing it, and the numbers will (slowly or quickly depending on just how good) increase. If not, if it’s all just pretty visuals and no substance, then the opposite will happen, and you will find more people playing four year old games, like Halo 3, instead.

    #15 3 years ago
  16. OrbitMonkey

    @14 Good points, right until the last line. If indeed your implying liking the easily accessible gameplay of CoD makes you a idiot.

    #16 3 years ago
  17. GrimRita

    Im always amazed at how well shit sells. CoD, WoW, Starcraft 2,Wii, I could go on.. Not ground breaking games, just generic piles of steaming poo that sell in huge numbers because ‘its the latest must have craze of the time’.

    #17 3 years ago
  18. polygem

    i´m skipping it. i am buying halo ce anniversary and skyrim this year, maybe BF3 if i can´t resist but i actually wanted to wait until some time next year. halo reach/ce anniversary, gears, skyrim…all i need atm.

    #18 3 years ago
  19. viralshag

    @17, I would argue that SCII wasn’t shit. I think that was one of the better games of last year tbh.

    I won’t argue against the Wii. WoW I think is an aquired taste. I still don’t think the game is “shit” but it’s gotten a bit old and boring for me. I don’t think you can deny it the fact it has a shit ton of content for players to get through.

    #19 3 years ago
  20. John117

    Hell, I’v decided to not buy MW3 after some careful thinking. I couldnt care less for the MP but it would be nice to see the ending. So one day when one of my friends decide they want to creep out of their holes and try out a other game I will ask them if I can borrow the game a few days so I can rack up some easy gamerscore and see if Price and Soap dies at the end :P

    #20 3 years ago
  21. OrbitMonkey

    @18 Yeah its a really tough call this year, especially if your on a budget. I would of hated to wait for BF3 though. The yanks having a 3 day headstart on mp was a ballache :/

    #21 3 years ago
  22. viralshag

    @21, Luckily some cheeky fellows in the UK used a proxy to unlock their Origin copies into thinking it was already out where they were. Those naughty naughty people. I, of course, would never have done something like that. ;)

    I’m glad I had Skyrim pre-purchased a while back. I think that’s one game I won’t be disappointed with and having it paid for removes the thought of dropping another £40 down. :D

    #22 3 years ago
  23. Deacon

    @16 – when offered with two very similar products, one being much more suited to my gaming style, maturity, and all-round preference, then yes. Everyone who plays the ‘other one’ is a fucking idiot to me.

    I like Honey Nut Loops. If you like Shreddies then you’re a fucking idiot.

    I take great solace in belittling others with my fascist views.
    Don’t you try to take that away from me!

    #23 3 years ago
  24. OrbitMonkey

    @Deacon, Honey Nut Loops?

    Fucking Idiot… Crunchy Nut Cornflakes ftw!!

    #24 3 years ago
  25. freedoms_stain

    @12, do you bother to fact check any of your drivel? BC2 was a permanent fixture in Nelson’s monthly top 20′s and a regular top 10. Your crap is getting beyond tiresome.

    #25 3 years ago
  26. GrimRita

    I only say SC2 is shit because it simply doesnt bring anything new to the table. There are so many better RTS games out there that either didnt sell well, or score any where as high as SC2. Theres no way on gods earth its a 9/10 game.

    It just copies the formula so is that really a 9? As for WoW, sure a ton of content but its almost ALL the same kind of content. But credit to Blizzard because they do know how to have some fun in/with their games. I remember their April fools joke ‘play World of World of Warcraft’ – playing someone who plays WoW – genius!

    I cant comment really about CoD but any developer that ports a game to the PC doesnt deserve my cash or any credit. The original CoD was great, I remember lots of great features in it when it first launched but now its clearly turned into a hype machine.

    #26 3 years ago
  27. viralshag

    @Grim, I guess you’re right that it didn’t break any new boundaries but it was a very solid game with a good story and some really nice visuals. As well as a very competitive MP with a decent ranking system. I think to me if a game can tick all of those boxes it’s worthy of some praise. For me personally, I don’t think every game needs to bring something new to the table and quite frankly, I would just like some games to do what they do best and bring me a really solid game. I certainly didn’t feel cheated by SCII and I’m not even a big MP person for that game. I just enjoyed everything else about it.

    Again, you are right in the respect that WoW is a lot of the same stuff but then again, what MMO really feels different from quest to quest. WoW for the most part, is a solid and enjoyable game. I just think the length it’s been out for leaves some people very jaded. Which is understandable. Maybe I’m looking at it with rose tinted glasses, as I’m someone who doesn’t play anymore and has cancelled their sub but still wishes they could log in and have as good a time as they use to.

    #27 3 years ago
  28. GrimRita

    Spot on about ticking boxes. I am still upset over DoW 2 and what Relic did after creating a superb original.

    But the one thing I cant deny is that Blizzard are great at polishing turds and thats probably why they have such high sales for anything they make.

    I cancelled my sub to WoW ages ago whilst waiting for SWTWoW and I always give everything I own away, so I cant return lol.

    But on topic, I wont be shocked if MW3 does make these numbers because its just so expensive to buy. £40 on Steam for a port! I’ve noticed that the prices of PC games creeping up of late which is annoying.

    But man, I want DIVE to announce that they have removed the need to use EA’s spyware so I can get myself on BF3

    #28 3 years ago
  29. viralshag

    Again, I really like both DoW games. I’m easily impressed :P

    Yeah, I don’t quite see how they can justify a higher price tag than other games.

    Origin does have a way to go before being something I would consider having open any other time than when I’m playing BF3.

    #29 3 years ago
  30. G1GAHURTZ

    @25:

    You’re right. I checked a bunch of weeks, and it was usually in the top 10.

    I made the assumption based on the fact that every time I’ve seen a top 10 and looked for it, I haven’t found it. Obviously, this was just a coincidence.

    My mistake.

    #30 3 years ago
  31. sg1974

    Looks like someone forgot that popularity and quality are two separate and frequently unrelated issues.

    Now, I’m off to read a Dame Barbara Cartland, one of the finest story-tellers in all of history (second only to Shakespeare in sales).

    #31 3 years ago
  32. G1GAHURTZ

    Whether one man might deem her hideous or not, the most attractive woman is the one who attracts the most men.

    #32 3 years ago
  33. OrbitMonkey

    Hmm the old popular doesn’t equal quality bullshit eh? True enough, but y’know MOST OF THE TIME IT DOES :)

    #33 3 years ago
  34. Bluebird

    How much does it cost to make and promote a game like this?

    #34 3 years ago
  35. G1GAHURTZ

    According to the LA Times, Activision’s Modern Warfare 2 (MW2) cost between $40million and $50-million to develop. This does not include the marketing and distribution costs, which are estimated to amount to around $150-million.

    #35 3 years ago
  36. Bluebird

    Thanks, Giga.

    #36 3 years ago
  37. G1GAHURTZ

    No problem.

    #37 3 years ago