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SWTOR could potentially attain over 1 million paid subscribers

Saturday, 3rd March 2012 13:55 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

A report from market research firm DFC Intelligence has concluded Star Wars: The Old Republic “has the potential to be a successful long-term online subscription PC game,” despite a “general decline in high-end subscription game products and growing competition from numerous free-to-play games.”

The data in the report obtained by GI.biz was collected in conjunction with Xfire user data from December 20 through February 20 and a January 2012 Xfire survey which saw over 4,000 participants.

One of the biggest features of  Xfire is that it provides players the ability to track their gaming hours – the main reason we stopped using it as this depressed us a bit.

However, cataloging the many hours of your life you dump into games aside, the data compiled provides DFC and Xfire with important information on current trends in PC gaming and user preferences.

Based on this collected data, DFC is certain SWTOR can maintain one million paying subscribers who pay a sub-fee for over six months at a time.

“The current trend among large massively multiplayer online games is to have strong initial sales, after which users quickly lose interest and are not converted to long-term paying subscribers,” said the firm’s analyst Jeremy Miller.

“While early signs are fairly positive, over the next few months the plan is to closely monitor usage and consumer reaction to gauge how well Star Wars: The Old Republic performs over time.

“The next three to six months will be critical to determine if the game can attract a large and sustained paying subscriber base.”

DFC said its study is an “ongoing initiative” with the Xfire service, which the firm will use to better track core PC games.

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24 Comments

  1. Talkar

    What the?… It is already well above that o.O

    #1 2 years ago
  2. unacomn

    It had over a million players, because over a million people bought it and were playing it within the 30 day free game time. How many will still be around by June, that remains to be seen.

    #2 2 years ago
  3. Talkar

    No, it actually has over 1.7 million subs
    http://pc.ign.com/articles/121/1217723p1.html

    #3 2 years ago
  4. GrimRita

    What I found interesting is that the link to GI.biz shows how they are basing some of their data. And if they are using Xfire(yes I am aware not everyone uses it, but from the link, its included) – THIS story over on MMORPG.com http://www.mmorpg.com/blogs/Teala/012012/22492_The-Tortanics-Maiden-Voyage clearly shows a HUGE decline in those playing since the subs kicked in for most.

    So either these guys havent included the latest stats in their data or their ‘Intelligence’ should be questioned.

    @3 – And, that story is VERY misleading. Why? Well, those figures come from December when NO ONE actually paid a subscription fee to play. 2 million copies sold, with 1.7 million of those actually playing.

    When they cough some info from Jan 20th onwards, thats when eyes should be raised either for an increase/or decrease

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Shokaku

    let say it clear. If this game wanna be the big player on the mmo marked, BW have last chance to do it with 1.2 update. atm about 30-40% players left SWTOR because the game is to… quick… the end game came to quick(to fast lvl up), and the main end game (pvp/pve) is to short… after 2 months of semi-hardcore playing you can get every thing in this game.

    And it seems it will gonna be worse.. in next patch BioWare is making less grind in PvP… so the players will get PvP gear faster the now. This game is going to be RPG with co-op rather then normal/standard mmorpg.

    #5 2 years ago
  6. Talkar

    @4
    The numbers (1.7 million subs) are not from December, they are from the launch in December until some undisclosed point in January.

    The article you are linking to isn’t showing a damn thing. Everyone who says the game is losing 40-70% of the subs don’ really know anything, at all.
    For example, a lot of people refer to mmo-junkies.net when they are claiming said decline. However people forget to read the fine print, which very, very clearly states that the graphs doesn’t show anything about how many are actually playing. It is simply showing assigning a number to a server, depending on if it is off, light, normal, heavy and full, and then adding them together. And as any person who has actually cared about the game, said person would know that Bioware severely increased the server caps during early access, during the rest of December, and well through January. So what was full when the game launched may very well be something about medium now.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. GrimRita

    @6 – look at again at the bottom. You see the xfire tracking stats for the game.

    And seriously Talkar, I know its hard to believe that this woeful MMO attempt isnt losing numbers faster then a bingo caller but if you read the forums, its littered with posts about empty servers and guilds.

    And of course ‘some undisclosed point in Jan’ – makes me laugh. Either way, EA will have to announce how good/bad things are going with this game but either way, its not the WoW beater they hoped it would be

    #7 2 years ago
  8. DSB

    Keyword: Long-term.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Talkar

    @7
    Wait what? People are whining on a gaming forum without knowing anything? how is that possible?! This must be the worst game ever, no other forum ever has this problem o.O

    #9 2 years ago
  10. TheWulf

    Talkar is being awfully defensive about this.

    Anyway, it wouldn’t surprise me if the number dropped from 1.7 to under one million after the free 30 day period. Keep in mind that the free 30 day period was also counted as subscriptions by Bioware. But as with almost every MMO, about 20-50% of those people tend to drop off after the three 30 day period.

    It’s retention that matters. And unless I see something that says that that people didn’t drop off after the free 30 day period, then I have no reason to distrust VG24/7′s source. Nor should anyone else.

    And 50% drop offs aren’t unlikely. The same things were said about Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning and Age of Conan. People hyped those up the same way as the WoW-killer, and in the first couple of months people were all over them and defensively trying to shut down any negative opinions the Internet over.

    A month or two after that, everything mysteriously went quiet.

    Will TOR have better retention than those games? That remains to be seen.

    #10 2 years ago
  11. DarkElfa

    I’m honestly rather sick of the whole “End game is too quick” crap. It was too quick because too many non-stop power leveled to get there.

    It’s all about how often you play and what you do in the time in between. My first character hit 50 in a little over a month and I was busting my butt. I passed on a lot of quests and space barred through a bunch of stuff as well as passing up FP’s.

    Now I’m using that character to bank roll my alts so I don’t have to grind so much and I can enjoy my storyline.

    At best, SWTOR remains afloat and subscription based, at least for a year or two. At worst, it goes F2P within the year and that’s fine too since it will bring with it, according to the average for big MMO’s going F2P, millions of new players.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. Phoenixblight

    THey are basing their numbers around a service that only a percentage of people use. I don’t use Xfire, its bloat ware. My guild and friends use skype or vent for voice chat. SO their numbers are definitely skewed and should not be considered to be fact. Its just estimations which analysts use their pseudo math and then people take them as facts because it matches with what they want to read in this case Wulf and Grim. Wait until the end of March when EA does their conference call to see how they are doing.

    #12 2 years ago
  13. Kalain

    Getting information from 3rd party sites who have no access to the right information is, indeed, a good way to determine how well a game is doing.

    For those who are claiming these numbers are good please tell me why we should believe those numbers?

    1. Anyone who mentions how a game is declining because of the numbers from Xfire is a muppet and really needs to understand that more people do not use it and play the game than those people who do use it. Its a bad way to get a trend.
    2. All the stats websites base their numbers off the server status page and people who do a /who to different areas. Yes, really precise numbers there. Also, how many people is needed on a server to make it LIght/medium/heavy etc etc.
    3. An analyst says its doing badly. A bit like the analysts who said the global finances were fine days before economies crashed. Analysts only speculate with the estimates they have before deciding if they should have a Subtract or an Addition at the end.
    4. People only believe what they are told them from these so called ‘Sources’ and, there for, come on to game forums and Rant about how a game is dying.

    The only people who know the real numbers are EA and Bioware. Thats it. No one else. Not even the queen, or the pope, or that man on the corner, or those people who work for a gaming site. Geeze..

    #13 2 years ago
  14. absolutezero

    Im not saying anything specific about ToR but using XFire as a guide has worked pretty fucking well for every MMO released before ToR. So now its time to discount it because… because.

    Im not saying anything out of Xfire is concrete but yeah its a pretty useful guide for noticing trends. Its true that the number of people using Xfire and playing ToR dropped faster than even the XFire users playing WAR. Of course thats just a small segment of the user base and im more than interested in seeing what EA say.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. GrimRita

    I love when people go all defensive about this turd of a game they fail to actually read whats been said and just jump on their soap box.

    - Xfire
    I did state that not everyone uses Xfire, however, the link in the story clearly points to the fact that this group of so called ‘know-it-alls’ has used xfire to base the fact that subs are higher.

    However, the reality is, those who DO use xfire, there has been a dramatic slump in people playing SWTOR compared to the launch period.

    I personally dont use xfire anymore but this information was gathered from xfire. And PB, please – for a change actually READ what I said -
    “So either these guys havent included the latest stats in their data or their ‘Intelligence’ should be questioned.”

    So your point is invalid. And yes, lets wait to see what happens in March and how EA try to hide the decline. What is interesting is that around the time of the resub period, they release videos with the all too traditional ‘look at whats coming soon if you stay’ bull shit.

    #15 2 years ago
  16. Phoenixblight

    @Grim

    I don’t read what you say because it comes with “blah, blah, TOR sucks blah blah list of forum evidence blah blah.”

    “What is interesting is that around the time of the resub period, they release videos with the all too traditional ‘look at whats coming soon if you stay’ bull shit.”

    Blizzard and all MMOs have been doing this from the get go so your point is invalid. This is why I ignore your posts.

    “how EA try to hide the decline”

    They can’t that is against the law to lie to the shareholders. You can actually do prison time for doing such a thing.

    #16 2 years ago
  17. viralshag

    I’m still just waiting to hear of some improvements to the game before I come back to it. If I was a to gauge how well the game is doing based on the people I know that actually have played it, I would say it’s doing terribly. So far I don’t know anyone personally that has kept their sub going past one month after the free 30 days.

    But that’s just my group of friends. I’m sure someone here has their entire friends list still playing it.

    #17 2 years ago
  18. Phoenixblight

    @17

    *Raises hand*

    1.2 has a whole slew of improvements which will be coming somewhere at the end of the month. I can’t wait for that with the legacy system, ui customization, graphical improvement and the new flashpoints and raids.

    #18 2 years ago
  19. viralshag

    @18, I thought you might be the one to raise his hand. ;)

    Maybe after I hear some good feedback on 1.2 I will have a little look. Until then though there’s just too many other decent games that require my attention.

    /Looks fondly at pre-installed ME3…

    #19 2 years ago
  20. Phoenixblight

    @19

    I will have ME3 beaten by the point that 1.2 releases. I am trying to get my second character to level 50 before ME3 comes out on Tuesday.

    #20 2 years ago
  21. viralshag

    I was going to try and have a second renegade character set up for my on the PC as I just did a full ME1/2 run through on Paragon.

    I lost my 2nd ME2 disc for the 360 which is why I decided to try the PC version and get ME3 for the PC too. Well that and graphical difference between the two platforms this time around is a little more noticeable.

    I might still start another run through though seeing as I have until Friday to wait. Unless I get a cheeky early EU unlock like BF3…

    #21 2 years ago
  22. Phoenixblight

    @21

    I just went to MassEffect2save.com and pulled a save that seemed like the one that I would want. I just don’t have time to play ME1-2 all over again.

    #22 2 years ago
  23. viralshag

    @22, That’s a pretty cool site, just checked it out. Really handy if you haven’t got the time like you said.

    #23 2 years ago
  24. GrimRita

    @16 Yeah I guess the truth really does hurt doesnt it? And yet again you miss the point of the news story.

    So if this company are basing the fact that SWTOR will have 1 mill subs because of what they saw on xfire, they are clearly incorrect because the point – and the fact is – if they are basing their decision on this, there has been a HUGE drop in people who USE xfire playing SWTOR.

    Anyway, come middle of year lets just see who is right, because it wont be you.

    #24 2 years ago

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