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PS4 to outsell Xbox One by 30% through 2016 – analyst

Thursday, 2nd January 2014 17:54 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has determined that PlayStation 4 will outsell Xbox One by 30% through 2016, stating in his industry note he expects Sony to “‘win’ the next console generation.”

“We think ‘winning’ is important to both companies,” said Pachter. “It is possible that Microsoft will reduce Xbox One pricing far faster than we have forecasted. Should hardware prices come down faster than we have modeled, it is likely that hardware and software sales will grow faster.”

Pachter has predicted modest console price cuts for the three years, with Wii U dropping by 50% to $150 by the end of 2016. During the same timeframe, he also expects PS4 to drop $100 and Xbox One’s price to be diminished by $150.

The analyst still expects Xbox One to ‘thrive’ through the end of 2016, with 29 million consoles sold.

PS4 is projected by Wedbush to move 37.7 million units worldwide by the end of 2016, with Wii U coming in third place with 20 million units sold worldwide.

Thanks, GI International.

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20 Comments

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  1. SlayerGT

    I could have guessed seeing as my GameStop has had Ones sitting on the shelf for the past 3 weeks, and can’t keep PS4s in stock. I’d guess if TitanFall doesn’t move considerable units, the price of the Xbox will definitely drop by or at E3.

    #1 4 months ago
  2. Dragon

    Very likely. It would require Sony to shoot their foot real bad to lose the momentum they have over X1. They have this gen on lockdown as of now, and in forseeable future, unless X1 price is drastically cut for a price parity with PS4. Also shows there is much demand for real next gen, not gimmicky ones.
    This gen would also last for 5-6 years max imo, since Sony and MS arent losing (much)money over PS4 and X1.

    #2 4 months ago
  3. Fin

    Nah they won’t drop the price of the X1 in the first year. That kinda thing is verrry unlikely, big indication the console isn’t doing well.

    #3 4 months ago
  4. fihar

    Shit, a $150 Wii U would sell like hotcakes.

    #4 4 months ago
  5. darkshale

    I thought PS4 would outsell the XBox One by similar numbers Then Micheal “Broken Clock” Pachter said it and I am not so sure. How this guy gets paid for his “predictions” is beyond me. How does a guy who predicted the failure of the 3DS, the Wii and WiiU get anyone to follow his investment advice.

    #5 4 months ago
  6. Dragon

    @4,
    Highly doubt it. Wii got cheaper, but it didnt manage to retain its fanatastic early performance.
    Wii U at this point, is just a failure. And will remain so. Best ninty will hope is that they could manage to eke out a profit out of Wii U someday, since right now its the only console that is still loss making (no concrete news on X1 and PS4).

    #6 4 months ago
  7. runbmp

    @5 also the same guy who predicted World of Warcraft wouldn’t be a big thing…

    #7 4 months ago
  8. dontbescaredhomie92

    Sure we’ve heard this story a thousand times already.
    See you’ve quoted the most useless analyst of all time as well, compelling stuff, bravo.

    #8 4 months ago
  9. Fethennour

    Aaaaaaaaannnd… Michael “Nostradamus” Pachter strikes again. Again.

    #9 4 months ago
  10. Legendaryboss

    Its coming from Pachter? Xbox One confirmed to outsell PS4 through 2016. Hes more wrong than right.

    #10 4 months ago
  11. nykilla80

    Michael Pachter is usually wrong but if he is not 30% is fair to say given the bad PR MS received plus the $100 difference. Honestly thats not that big of a lead considering thats ONLY 2yrs away. PS3 built lots of steam at during last 2-3yrs which brought it right back up on par with 360, even tho its available in waaay more territories than 360. I own them both so I could care less who wins. Its good to see there is no blowout and both of these companies are going to do great things to keep their consoles ahead!!

    #11 4 months ago
  12. CPC_RedDawn

    @11

    Yep Pachter is usually wrong, but I can’t agree with you on the PS3 only beating the 360 in sales because of Netflix streaming. It boils down to the fact that Microsoft released pretty much nothing other than Halo and Forza for the console in its last three years. Sure there were third party games and indies as well but that is all that kept the 360 alive.

    Sony finally won the console sales race last gen because they had the streaming, they had the internet browser first, they had the third parties, they had free online, they had an AMAZING pay-for online service in PSplus, and more importantly… They had killer first party game releases year after year.

    I owned a 360 up until Black Ops 1 came out after which I sold it and got a PS3 and honestly I was way more happier with it. I have never missed the 360 either.

    Also, the 360 may be in a smaller amount of countries to the PS3 but at least the PS3 didn’t have anywhere near the hardware issues the 360 had. Most if not all of my friends have had at least two 360′s due to the first breaking (me included!) I even know someone who has brought 5 of them because they all broke, he has just got his sixth one as he upgraded to the newer model! (yea hes a fan boy). Whilst I still have a fat PS3 and its still going strong. The YLOD was nowhere near as bad as the RROD no matter how you spin it.

    #12 4 months ago
  13. AsianGameing

    good , Sony need that sell .Sony Has 79% Chance of Going Bankrupt in the Next 2 Years http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=744370

    #13 4 months ago
  14. The_Red

    I think Xbox One price drop is happening during E3 (Yes, within the first year) by dropping mandatory Kinect. Why? Because the people behind such a idiotic decision (Balmer, Mattrick) were shown the door at MS.

    New execs would be fools to stick to the old (And self-destructing) plans.

    #14 4 months ago
  15. RussellGorall

    To anyone who think the Wii U “got cheaper”, it actually didn’t. They just gave you like 16 extra GB’s.

    Wii U needs a price drop to stay competitive, though Nintendo has been shooting itself in the ass lately with the Wii Mini and the lack of real Wii hardware and software. I was trying to buy Xenoblade Chronicles and the newest Zelda game, and only Nintendo would keep software off of store shelves to keep prices up like that. Absolutely atrocious business practice.

    Wii U needs a drop of close to one hundred dollars, or a real hard drive with fifty dollars off. Then it can compete with its’ competition, the 360 and PS3.

    #15 4 months ago
  16. The_Red

    @15
    I don’t think Wii U is gonna return. Even at $150.
    Mario Kart is the only game-changer for them but people that want MK can get it on MUCH cheaper Wii. 40 bucks (Game) + 100 bucks (Console)

    Why would they pay 60 bucks + 150 bucks? Most of them don’t even know what a Wii U is. Seriously, it no longer matters what Nintendo does for Wii U. That system is dead. The only thing that remains to be seen is how dead. They might reach 25 million WW sales at best and 8 at worst.

    #16 4 months ago
  17. OmegaSlayer

    PS4 is not getting a larger head start because there is no PS4 available on the shelves unlike the XBOXOne.
    Here in Roma, Italy, you can find columns of XBones everywhere and not a single PS4.
    Next shipping is said to arrive around January 10th, which means that in Italy we had PS4 only on launch day (sold out immediately) and December 16th (sold out immediately to cover those pre-orders that weren’t fulfilled on launch day).
    I’m currently waiting a message from a store next week that will inform me if they have enough PS4 allocated to cover all pre-orders and accept my pre-order.
    IF Sony would have been good at keeping up with the demand we would see totally different and more insane numbers.

    #17 4 months ago
  18. pukem0n

    Xbox 360 outsold PS3 by a huge margin in its first years too, see how that turned out…

    #18 4 months ago
  19. Gekidami

    ^ Maybe for the first year when the PS3 wasnt out, but after that the PS3′s sales were either practically on par or ahead. The PS4 didnt have a full year on the market like the 360 did, that example doesnt apply.

    #19 4 months ago
  20. Ekona

    So in shock news, when you have two consoles which are basically identical in spec, the cheaper one is going to sell more? Well, I’m stunned by that.

    #20 4 months ago