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PS4, Wii U, Xbox One combined unit sales to be 5% lower than current gen – research firm

Tuesday, 16th July 2013 19:35 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Cloud-based streaming won’t be a selling point for next-gen consoles, according to a new report from ABI Research, which also doesn’t expect unit sales to reach those of current-gen systems within the first five years at market.

The research firm predicts the combined unit sales of PS4, Wii U and Xbox One to hit around the 133 million mark within the first five years of launch – a 5% decrease compared with current-gen unit sales of 140 million.

ABI Research feels the decline in unit sales will be due to the current availability of less expensive streaming devices such as “Roku, Netgear, WD, Apple and Seagate, among others,” along with Ouya and the 13-year lift on the console ban in China.

“Without solid titles and first-party franchises, platforms will have a difficult time finding traction,” noted the firm’s practice director Sam Rosen. “Streaming media is not enough when low-cost STBs are readily available.

“While we don’t anticipate a drop-off in game console households, barring significant changes to less developed console markets in Asia and Latin America there isn’t a great deal of growth opportunity beyond the current installed base.”

“With many of the casual gaming segment embracing mobile devices for gaming, without a shift in strategy and pricing the Wii U will likely fail to match the success of the Wii, which will impact future console shipments,” added senior analyst Michael Inouye.

Thanks, Game Politics.

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23 Comments

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  1. Lengendaryboss

    Wii U is current gen?

    #1 9 months ago
  2. Stephany Nunneley

    @1 Well, technically yes – but not really I suppose they were just the first out of the gate. Like a quarter horse.

    #2 9 months ago
  3. actuallyisnotafox

    looking at the ps2, it was very basic, you could play games, dvds, and cd’s etc… then when ps3 came a long you had the xmb, you had much better graphics, you had a lot… looking at next gen, theres not that much to compel people, i mean it looks more a less the same as the ps3 except with better graphics and yes the cloud…

    #3 9 months ago
  4. Lengendaryboss

    @Steph
    Okay dokey.

    #4 9 months ago
  5. OlderGamer

    Kind of what I have been saying.

    #5 9 months ago
  6. machy

    i’d say that 5% is thx to the wiiU x1&ps4 will just do fine

    #6 9 months ago
  7. OlderGamer

    Maybe machy, but then again maybe would be WiiU buyers have just shifted over to PS4 or X1? I know a lot of people that where on the fence with WiiU, and decided to wait and spring for PS4 instead.

    Maybe consoles have reached their peak. When gaming went mainstream, TV watching fell off. Maybe social media/texting/internet/Netflix/hulu/mobile/pc/etc have been cutting into the growth of dedicated gaming consoles?

    #7 9 months ago
  8. Lengendaryboss

    @3
    Also Isn’t a pain in the backside to develop for, games should be equal, the PS4 should be faster and some other additions.

    Not a major leap so it seems but the developers and publishers seem happy for now.

    #8 9 months ago
  9. JewyMcJew

    I disagree. Pre-sales for both PS4 and XBONE are very strong, the inflation adjusted launch price is very low, and the launch line-up is already great thanks to the easy PC platform.

    Further down the road, porting PC games to the consoles now takes weeks rather than months or even years. The economics of AAA game making could vastly improve.

    Combined with an aggressive SoC strategy allowing for further price reductions, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a $199 price-point within 5 years.

    I think PS4 could break the 200 million mark and at worst, Kinect 2 will usher in a new age in robotics.

    #9 9 months ago
  10. MCTJim

    Not really a a huge loss imo, but, I dont see either of the consoles..the X1 or the PS4 lasting for 8 years like the 360 or PS3.

    #10 9 months ago
  11. ShakaCarnage

    I will confidently predict, right now (and you can hold me to this, Steph), that this story won’t turn out to be correct.

    I am 100% confident the market will be grown by set-top-box deals in the US and Europe.

    And I’m not even an analyst.

    #11 9 months ago
  12. RandomTiger

    So that would mean if the WiiU doesnt pick up on sales Sony and MS will increase their market share?

    #12 9 months ago
  13. ChunkyLover112

    I have a hard time believing this to be honest. With the pshit, it’s probably true because fewer and fewer want it in their living room. And you can’t blame them – I mean, who wants a black turd in their living room by their TV?

    But yeah, the game industry is still growing bigger in countries like India and China – especially now that they’re getting “legel.”

    And yes, the Wii U is next-gen. More “next-gen” than the ps4.

    #13 9 months ago
  14. Professor Zoom

    #13 Are you trolling? PS4 and X1 is nextgen. Wii and Wii u is last gen.

    #14 9 months ago
  15. Digital Bamboo

    Only 5%? I guess we’ll see about that.

    @14 He most likely is, yes. But, you are both wrong. Wii is last gen. Wii U is current gen. PS4 & X1 are next-gen.

    #15 9 months ago
  16. Ireland Michael

    @15 Wii U is next gen, whether you want it to be our not. It was the next interative hardware release by the company, which is all the term means. Consoles generations are defined by the time gap between new hardware releases, not by some arbitrary and bullshit willy waving specs comparisons.

    The 360 and PS3 are still “current gen” hardware as the new machines haven’t even come out yet.

    If you really want to argue hardware, *none* of the new stuff is particularly “next gen”. There’s nothing on any of these consoles that hasn’t possible on the PC for the past few years.

    #16 9 months ago
  17. Digital Bamboo

    @16 Doesn’t really bother me if people think of the Wii U as the last system of the current gen or the first system of the next-gen, I just get slightly annoyed when it’s lumped in with the Wii and called “last gen” which it most certainly is not.

    #17 9 months ago
  18. pandulce1

    #16 Ireland Michael
    “Consoles generations are defined by the time gap between new hardware releases, not by some arbitrary and bullshit willy waving specs comparisons.”

    Says who? You can measure them any way you want and so can anyone else. If the Wii U is “Next Gen” to you, good for you. To me it isn’t. It’s too close to seven year old consoles for my liking. I am freely entitled to think any way I please. And last time I checked, a PC was not a console.

    There is no place for Ferrari in a Mustang vs Camaro conversation.

    The tone of your answer really annoyed me. I would have expected a little more professionalism.

    #18 9 months ago
  19. Drewidian

    If MS does what I think they might do given their relationships with the cable and satellite companies and partners with them to sell the XBox One for a subsidized price of $99 – $199 with a 2 year contract, the XBox One’s sales may be equal to all of the generation 7′s game consoles. This generation there may have been 350 – 400 Million consoles sold between the Wii, XBox 360, and PS3, but there are over 1.5 Billion cable and satellite subscribers world wide, and many of them might welcome a unified device especially if it ends up costing as little as $99 on a contract. I could elaborate, but I’ll leave it there as food for thought.

    #19 9 months ago
  20. The_Red

    This is actually great news for PS4 and X1. Current gen systems reached the insane combined number because of Wii’s near 100 million sales. Wii U could do 30 to 40 million max, which if combined with this numbers means that PS4 / X1 can sell better than PS3 / 360 while the 5 percent drop is attributed to Wii U’s lower numbers compared to Wii.

    #20 9 months ago
  21. Drewidian

    #20 @The_Red I hear you but you have to remember what the typical gamer for the Wii was. They were casual gamers; not the more serious gamers that would choose the PS4 or XBox One. More than likely, those users will move to mobile devices since there is no shortage of casual games there. Will the PS4 and XBox One likely pick up some of those users, yes, but more than likely they will go mobile.

    #21 9 months ago
  22. The_Red

    @21
    There’s no denying what you said. Most of the people that went for Wii won’t be coming back for either one of next-gen consoles (PS4, X1 or Wii U). My point was about using the Wii U / Wii difference in context of “5%” less comparison that this firm is talking about.

    #22 9 months ago
  23. elem187

    I don’t see how the xBone will even come close to the 360 numbers. The bad PR doesn’t just go away because you sack Mattrick and apologize… Microsoft lost the trust of gamers, who is to say they wont double back again half way through the generation and attempt to bring DRM back.. I mean its a hardware disc tagging that will be apart of the system whether its laying dormant because of a software update until Microsoft feels they have enough users to flip back and gouge them..

    Also are gamers really comfortable with Microsoft’s always on camera and microphone after Microsoft was the top company named by the NSA’s PRISM program…. I can’t trust Microsoft, and I don’t know anyone who does. This console is going to be a flop for Microsoft. They will come in a distant 4th behind Ouya.

    #23 9 months ago