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PS4 sales to hit 49 million sales by end of 2017, Xbox One at 38 million, says analyst firm

Tuesday, 12 November 2013 13:03 GMT By Dave Cook

Sony will sell 49 million PlayStation 4 consoles worldwide in the next five years, trumping Microsoft’s predicted 38 million Xbox One consoles. That’s the prediction of analyst firm IHS.

In a press release sent to VG247 today, analyst firm IHS stated that Microsoft has the bigger community and install base towards the end of the Xbox 360′s life-span, and added, “The installed base of Xbox 360 users is significantly bigger than the original Xbox generation and this factor alone means IHS expects significantly stronger launch sales for Xbox One compared to the last generation. In 2005, Xbox 360 launched at the end of the year with sales of 1.2 million.”

The firm also reckons that it’ll be harder to persuade gamers to switch formats in the next generation, and predicted there to be, “only be a small amount of defections between Sony and Microsoft, ” and in terms of, “assessing geographical performance we believe history is a strong indicator of forward adoption.”

So what that means from IHS’s point of view is that PS4 will perform stronger than Xbox One in Europe, the UK and Japan, while Microsoft will continue its dominance in the US.

IHS continued, praising Sony’s competitive PS4 pricing, and conceded that Japan’s “obsession with handheld consoles,” could be a factor in Sony’s decision to move the console’s Japanese launch to 2014.

Addressing the marketing strategies of both sides, the report added, “Sony’s PS4 positioning since its announcement has been heavily centred on the gamer, while Microsoft has attempted to implement a mixed and broader entertainment and gaming message.

“This different approach will influence the choice of some early adopters. The strength of exclusives will also be key to consumer adoption; at this time IHS believes that Xbox One’s exclusives are more formidable for a wider set of gamers, especially in the opening launch period.”

Based on the above and a myriad of other factors, IHS concluded that Sony will shift 2.4 million PS4 units by the end of 2013, and that Microsoft will hit 2.2 million Xbox One consoles.

The firm’s five-year projection places global PS4 sales at 49 million, and Xbox One at 38 million. It concluded, “IHS believes that Sony’s wider geographical brand allegiance – especially across continental Europe and Japan – will be decisive in allowing PS4 to outsell Xbox One on a global basis by the end of 2017.

“We also believe that both Sony and Microsoft will continue to benefit from Nintendo’s Wii U weak sales, with some past Wii users adopting the latest consoles instead of upgrading to Wii U. IHS forecasts that Sony will sell-through 49 million PS4 consoles by the end of 2017, with Microsoft managing a smaller, but significant, amount of 38 million Xbox One consoles in the same time frame.”

PS4 is out November 15 in the states and November 29 in the UK/Europe.

Xbox One is out November 22 in several territories.

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20 Comments

  1. Nam3M3King

    Lol I thought this would be patcher’s statement but joke aside, next gen will just be on oar like this gen has, both platforms have built a loyal cult following so nothing going cause such big dent

    #1 1 year ago
  2. diego-rbb-93

    These guys get paid for this shit and i have to pay for console shit.

    This is the world I live, man…

    #2 1 year ago
  3. Zackslacky

    Well said sir. Closer figures than I would have thought?

    #3 1 year ago
  4. MFBB

    Oh me too me too.

    Ahm 70 million by 2019 for PS4 and 62 million for Xbone.

    Uncharted 4 selling 6 million copies and Half Life 3 9 million copies.

    Send me a email guys if you need more news :)

    I work as a freelancer.

    #4 1 year ago
  5. dravenkaze

    Haha bring in the xboner fan boys

    #5 1 year ago
  6. Nephilimator

    Lol xbone

    #6 1 year ago
  7. ps4fanboy

    sometimes i think all these analyst firms do is kid us

    #7 1 year ago
  8. mistermogul

    @1 – Yes but you might be overestimating peoples loyalty.

    Just using me as an example who have bought the last 2 gens of Xbox, I’m not buying their 3rd gen but a PS4 instead.

    I have a feeling there are quite few others in the same situation so “loyal cult following(s)” don’t always count. Also look at how the 360 managed to take market share away from the massive crowd that PS2 had…

    #8 1 year ago
  9. Kreion

    @5

    Notice how it’s only people like you who even take analysts crap seriously…interesting huh?

    #9 1 year ago
  10. Playmaker

    @9 let him enjoy his month long PSN outage and credit card hack. You get what you pay for in this world. Interesting how Japan even takes a shhh on Sony products. Starting from PS2 Sony has only been losing market share in a shrinking console market. This is the last gen of a video game console all enjoy it while it lasts. In 5 years you will be plugging your iPad into the TV using an Apple game pad.

    #10 1 year ago
  11. dravenkaze

    Kreion me serious? Plz…. dont get so snappy you only made a comment because I did, an I know analyst stuff is lame

    #11 1 year ago
  12. BrokenIcarus

    I’d say about 45million for PS4 and 25million for XB1

    #12 1 year ago
  13. Eon

    Looking at the data and using my resources I’d suggest it will be closer to 50 million for the PS4 and 66 million for the X1 by 2017.

    #13 1 year ago
  14. jhahn505

    I’m predicting that PS4 will outsell the Xbox One at a much higher ratio.

    1.75 ps4′s per 1.00 xbox one in the U.S and at least 2.00 ps4′s per 1.00 xbox one in the rest of the world.

    The reasons are simple.

    1) The ps4 is known to be superior graphically 2) the price is $100 cheaper 3) it releases sooner than the Xbox One 4) the PS4 has all of the PR advantages “the gamer’s console” 5) I think most consumers aren’t interested in Xbox One’s new Kinect technology and have alienated most of the Xbox 360 user base.

    To say that the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 in the U.S. is a fat chance. You can’t rely on historical data and trends to project the massive hidden and obvious advantages the PS4 has over the Xbox One. Time will tell who is correct – intuition, logic, and following the news since the announcement of both consoles leads me to believe that I am right.

    #14 1 year ago
  15. antraxsuicide

    @14
    1)And clearly the PS3 sold more consoles than the Wii, so this point is valid.

    2)Solid point, no sarcasm.

    3)Only in the States. The X1 actually releases before the PS4 in the rest of the world.

    4)It has the same PR advantages that the PS3 had going into this generation. So refer to my #1.

    5)No data presented. And many analysts are saying the exact opposite. NFL Sunday Ticket alone brings in something like 20 million subscribers. Most people like media, regardless of whether you and your friends do.

    As for my predictions, I do think the PS4 will do better out of the gate. But walk-ins will swing X1 thanks to larger stock and better game options in the spring (Titanfall is going to be huge).

    #15 1 year ago
  16. jhahn505

    There’s a few reasons why I believe what I wrote.

    Story 1: http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-beating-xbox-one-in-us-poll/1100-6415108/

    1,297 randomly polled online users in the Unites states showed that 26% of users chose the PS$ while 15% chose the Xbox One. This is a 1.73 favored ratio for the PS4. Although with the younger age group (under age 40) 41 percent favored the PS4 and 27 percent favored the Xbox One, a 1.52 favor ratio for PS4.

    I assume that these numbers would even be more lopsided considering the $100 price difference, affecting the decisions of walk-in customers in favor of PS4.

    A third party polling website shows that worldwide, 71.59% prefer the ps4 over the xbox one. This is over a 2.5 favor ratio for PS4.
    http://www.xboxonevspsfour.com/

    In reference to consumer preference, I am basing this on news stories and popularity of discussions on forums and youtube.

    Xbox One Reveal: Angry Rant by Angry Joe on youtube has a 95% like rating (a hate video on the Xbox One reveal)

    #16 1 year ago
  17. jhahn505

    The significance of the “angry joe xbox one reveal” was that it had over 2.5 million views

    #17 1 year ago
  18. fearmonkey

    But Misterxmedia says that the Xbox One is the more balanced system with a GPU in the power brick, and has a R280 GPU in it. His insider cant be wrong, right?

    lol….

    As an Xbox and Xbox 360 fan, It’s sad that MS messed up in so many ways, hopefully they get their mojo back in the generation after.

    #18 1 year ago
  19. antraxsuicide

    @16 I appreciate the links.

    But those questions would end up the same if you polled online users about whether the Wii or the PS3 was better. The PS3 would have overwhelming support, because the Wii is universally hated by gamers. But that doesn’t translate into the marketplace.

    The X1 is going after a similar crowd with its media capabilities. The people who comment on these sites represent such a small minority, it’s not even worth mentioning. There’s a reason that marketing programs at universities teach the lesson “There’s no such thing as bad press.” MS is eating it up. Because for the majority of consumers, brand loyalty isn’t a thing. People will buy the product that does what they want. The X1 has TV locked down. The PS4 doesn’t, and it’ll make a difference.

    #19 1 year ago
  20. shiva950

    I just registered to say

    PS4 is launching in 32 countries

    X1 in 13 countries… less than half

    X1 is not launching where im from and PS4 is. Every poll (blogs, facebook groups) that i have here has an equal number of PS4 to X1 ratio or X1 more than PS4. Including me i have friends waiting for X1 and we all dont even have a launch date.

    As these sites mention PS4 is advanced and stuff… did not convince me in any technological advancement. It looks as if new parts have been put into the box and changed the shape. whats extra other than gaming?

    I am eagerly waiting for the launch, hope after launch microsoft will announce launch in other parts of the world and hope ill get one soon :-)

    edit: i thought of adding this one. Why would a company do 10,000 events on launch date spending so much money if their unit sale is damn low. And if PS4 is already pre-orders sold so many consoles how come sony is not doing the same? Dont say simplicity….. it just bores me

    #20 1 year ago

Comments are now closed on this article.

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    Logitech will no longer produce “low-end” mice, citing a decline in PC accessories. This story has been updated to include a clarification. According to a Reuters report, per MCV, the firm will instead focus on video accessories and streaming music, as its wireless Bluetooth speakers are now its best-selling product rage. This will help offset […]

  • Win! We have 1,000 Heroes of the Storm beta keys to give away

    Must have more MOBA? Win one of our 1,000 Heroes of the Storm beta keys and see if you’re more Blizzard than LoL. Can’t wait for June 2? Of course you can’t. We have 1,000 closed beta keys for Heroes of the Storm to give away this week, allowing you access before Blizzard’s MOBA goes […]

  • Xenoblade Chronicles X Nintendo Direct airs tomorrow, April 24

    A Nintendo Direct devoted entirely to Xenoblade Chronicles X will air this Friday, April 24. The video showcase will start at 11am PDT/2pm EDT/7pm UK. After the showcase, a new Nintendo Treehouse: Live presentation featuring the game will air. This is the second Xenoblace Chronicles X Nintendo Direct, but the first in English. The first […]

  • Blizzard will have 500 game stations set up at gamescom 2015

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  • PS4 price cut to £299 in UK

    Sony has dropped the price of the PS4 in the UK. For a limited time only, you can grab the console for £299.99 from Argos, Game, Tesco and Very. Go to Amazon.co.uk and you’ll get it for £289. You’ve only got until April 28, then it goes back up to £349. Go, go, go. For […]

  • Mad Max: first ever gameplay footage revealed

    Today, we get to finally take our first look at gameplay from Mad Max. Avalanche and Warner Bros. have shown off the first gameplay trailer for Mad Max today. The trailer below offers a look at melee combat, car combat, customisation and much more. Give it a watch below: There are a few new screenshots […]

  • Overlord: Fellowship of Evil has four-player co-op like we figured

    Codemasters has pulled the veil back on the next Overlord game, and its a four-player co-op game called Overlord: Fellowship of Evil. Rhianna Pratchett is back to write the story. The game may be co-op at its core, but it can still be played single-player. Each of the four playable character have strengths and weaknesses, […]

  • Update now available for Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire, Pokemon X and Y

    Pokemon Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire along with Pokemon X and Y are being updated by Nintendo to fix a few bugs and in-game text. There’s also the possibility of a few hacks and exploits being fixed. Per Nintendo Life (via Serebii), both patches are 250-270 blocks in size, and it’s a mandatory update which […]

  • Side-scrolling cover shooter Not a Hero gets a demo

    Not a Hero, the upcoming game from OlliOlli developer Roll7, has received a demo. The demo for Not a Hero was made available today on Steam. In the game, you play as Steve, the campaign manager for BunnyLord. A time-travelling rabbit who’s running for mayor of London. Think this is an absurd premise? This trailer […]

  • You have until April 30 to export your Green Day: Rock Band tracks to Rock Band 3

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  • Batman: Arkham Knight minimum, recommended, and ultra PC specs revealed

    Batman: Arkham Knight is looking like it’s going to be quite a taxing game. Nvidia has released a list of the minimum, recommended, and ultra PC requirements for Batman: Arkham Knight. Here’s the full thing: Minimum OS: Win 7 SP1, Win 8.1 (64-bit Operating System Required) Processor: Intel Core i5-750, 2.67 GHz | AMD Phenom […]

  • Bloodborne patch 1.03 is live, reduces loading times, fixes suspend/resume bugs, more

    Patch 1.03 is now live for Bloodborne. The patch reduces loading times, adds item descriptions to loading screens, and fixes other various bugs. From Software has pushed update 1.03 live to all Bloodborne owners. As promised, it reduces loading times by approximately 5 to 15 seconds. Another new addition is showing item descriptions instead of […]

  • Battlefield 4: first look at Community Map in action

    Get your first look at the map designed by the community of Battlefield 4. Battlefield 4′s community-designed map is a reality. DICE has recently updated CTE to include an early version of the map. It’s not fully textured as Westie is about to show you, but the layout is nearly finalised. Westie goes over the […]

  • Microsoft apologises for uploading misleading Witcher 3: Wild Hunt footage

    Xbox’s YouTube channel uploaded a video of The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt yesterday that was captured from the PC build. The most recent gameplay video for the The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt appeared on the Xbox YouTube channel and showed a quest from the game’s opening section. A few minutes after it had gone live, […]

  • Assassin’s Creed creator’s new game is Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey

    Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey is the game Assassin’s Creed creator Patrice Desilets has been working on. Patrice Desilets has just announced that the next game his indie studio Panache Digital Games is making is called Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey. The announcement comes from Desilets’s keynote at the Reboot Develop event in Croatia. The trailer started […]

  • Bloodborne: Cathedral Ward closed door mystery solved

    The mystery of the locked door at the bottom of the Cathedral Ward in Bloodborne has been solved. Bloodborne, like earlier From Software games, is filled with doors that don’t open the first time you try them. Some will give you “locked” messages, others “does not open from this side”. Some of these will open […]

  • Assassin’s Creed creator Patrice Desilets is revealing his next game now [UPDATE: ended]

    Patrice Desilets, one of the original creators of Assassin’s Creed is hosting a presentation where he’s expected to talk about his next project. Patrice Desilets has emerged once again. This time he’s attending development conference in Croatia. Desilets is giving a live keynote and there’s a good chance we’re going to hear about his next […]

  • Destiny House of Wolves: everything you need to know about gear upgrades & The Reef

    Bungie revealed plenty of important details in last night’s Destiny stream. Let’s go over everything. Alex wants to make sure you don’t miss any of the information revealed yesterday. Most of it affects all Destiny players too, even those who don’t intend on buying House of Wolves. During the first stream, Bungie explained the armour […]

  • Mod-friendly Galactic Civilizations 3 will leave Steam Early Access in May

    Galactic Civilizations 3 will leave Steam Early Access next month for a full release, Stardok has announced. The developer called the game the “largest and most diverse strategy sandbox to date,” as players have a variety of tools such as diplomatic treaties to resource exchanges, and United Planets resolutions to hundreds of research directions for […]

  • Ys 6: The Ark of Napishtim is out next week on PC – here’s the pre-order trailer

    Ys 6: The Ark of Napishtim will be released next week on PC, and today, we have a pre-order trailer for you. The game will be made available on April 28 for $19.99/€17.99/£13.99 on GOG, the Humble Store and Steam. Along with improvements over the original PSP version, it will contain less backtracking, controller support […]

  • Destiny: House of Wolves – full gear set up to level 34 in PvP and PvE, upgrades, more

    The Destiny: House of Wolves livestream this afternoon was chock full of information. Read onward for our full report. According to Bungie, Petra Venj, who serves the Queen, is the main story agent who leads the player through the main series of quests. Players who complete bounties will be able to level up in her […]

  • Destiny: House of Wolves – watch the livestream right here

    Bungie will host a Destiny: House of Wolves livestream at 2pm EDT today, and you can watch it right here. Watch live video from Bungie on www.twitch.tv The stream will introduce the new social space, The Reef, as well as gear upgrade paths. House of Wolves contains new Strike missions, The Prison of Elders three-player […]

  • FIFA Ultimate Team: week of April 22 team includes Barcelona, Chelsea players

    This week’s FIFA 15 Team of the Week is now available for FIFA Ultimate Team players. Each team member, as with previous weeks, is selected base on the previous weekend’s matches. Here’s the list of players now available: Starting GK: Claudio Bravo – FC Barcelona (Spain) CB: Leonardo Bonucci – Juventus (Italy) CB: Ömer Toprak […]

  • Sony’s Spring Fever Sale winds down with Shovel Knight and Call of Duty discounts

    It’s the final week of Sony’s Spring Fever Sale which means more games have been added to the mix. Shovel Knight, which launches today is one offer, and the rest are all Cal of Duty titles. The Taken movie series is on sale as well. With Shovel Knight available today on PlayStation 3, PS4 and […]

  • Drivers for Xbox controllers, voice messages, more features available in Xbox One preview

    Microsoft has announced new features coming to Xbox One and the Xbox App on Windows 10 through the preview program this month. Some of the new features have been requested by the community for both Xbox One and Xbox One SmartGlass. Here’s what to expect, straight from the horse’s mouth: Xbox on Windows 10 Game […]

  • Total War: Warhammer has been announced for PC, Mac, SteamOS

    Total War: Warhammer has been announced after previous teases from The Creative Assembly touched upon it. The game will contain “gigantic monsters, flying creatures, legendary heroes and storms of magical power.” It is also the first in a trilogy which includes two additional standalone titles and extra content packs. It will feature thousands of warriors […]

  • This video for The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt features a quest from the prologue

    A new video for The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt has been released, showing off the Precious Cargo quest contained in the game’s prologue. The quest tasks Geralt with helping a merchant retrieve a mysterious box from the swamps. The scene looks familiar, but we’ve seen so many videos for the game it’s hard to tell […]

  • Limited public beta for The Elder Scrolls Online kicks off tomorrow on consoles

    The limited public beta for The Elder Scrolls Online: Tamriel Unlimited will launch on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One tomorrow, and Sony has provided details on the tester for those who’ve been invited to participate. The beta test contains the full version of the game and will run from April 23-27, and will start and […]

  • Dying Light debuts in second place on Media Create charts

    Techland’s Dying Light made its debut in Japan lats week, coming in a respectable second place behind Nintendo’s Girls Mode 3: Kirakira Code. The zombie shooter sold 25,530 units on PlayStation 4, while the top earner for the week moved a little over 55,000 units on 3DS. Another western release when landed on the chart, […]

  • Lord of Magna: Maiden Heaven will release in the west this June

    Lord of Magna: Maiden Heaven has been given a release date by XSEED Games, which announced the localization back in February. The title will launch for 3DS in North America on June 2 digitally and through retail. It will be an eShop only title in Europe and Australia when it releases on June 4. A […]

  • This Overlord video teases four new faces of evil

    A new Overlord game is in the works, going by the previous teasing and this video – which teases the possibility of four-payer co-op. Or just four characters to choose from. We don’t know just yet – all we know is the team is asking you to “join the fellowship.” A new entry in the […]

  • GTA movie will star Daniel Radcliffe as Rockstar’s Sam Houser, the BBC confirms

    The GTA movie Game Changer will star Daniel Radcliffe as Rockstar co-founder and president Sam Houser, theBBC has confirmed. The BBC also confirmed Bill Paxton will play Jack Thompson, a role Paxton already confirmed last week when speaking with Deadline. Here’s the synopsis per the BBC: “Conceived for an adult audience, this special 90-minute drama […]

  • Take a look at Etrian Odyssey 2 Untold’s Classic Mode

    Etrian Odyssey 2 Untold’s Classic Mode has received a trailer today. Etrian Odyssey 2 Untold will come with two modes, Classic and Story. Classic Mode was trailered today and in it, you’ll get to make your party by choosing from 13 classes. You’ll be able to customise them too using the character creation tool. Revamped […]

  • Shovel Knight: Plague of Shadows to come with new challenge mode

    Shovel Knight’s upcoming expansion Plague of Shadows will bring with it a new challenge mode. Shovel Knight developer Yacht Club Games has revealed the challenge mode, one of the new additions coming to the game with the free Plague of Shadows expansion. “Are you more into digging than distillation? Already have your Feats book long […]

  • Nvidia releases complete graphical guide for GTA 5

    Those with GeForce cards will be happy to know that Nvidia has released a comprehensive graphical tweaks guide for GTA 5. Nvidia usually produces graphical guides for the big AAA games, and GTA 5 is no different. Their guides offer in-depth coverage of each in-game setting, how much they affect framerate, if they can be […]