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PS4 sales to hit 49 million sales by end of 2017, Xbox One at 38 million, says analyst firm

Tuesday, 12th November 2013 13:03 GMT By Dave Cook

Sony will sell 49 million PlayStation 4 consoles worldwide in the next five years, trumping Microsoft’s predicted 38 million Xbox One consoles. That’s the prediction of analyst firm IHS.

In a press release sent to VG247 today, analyst firm IHS stated that Microsoft has the bigger community and install base towards the end of the Xbox 360′s life-span, and added, “The installed base of Xbox 360 users is significantly bigger than the original Xbox generation and this factor alone means IHS expects significantly stronger launch sales for Xbox One compared to the last generation. In 2005, Xbox 360 launched at the end of the year with sales of 1.2 million.”

The firm also reckons that it’ll be harder to persuade gamers to switch formats in the next generation, and predicted there to be, “only be a small amount of defections between Sony and Microsoft, ” and in terms of, “assessing geographical performance we believe history is a strong indicator of forward adoption.”

So what that means from IHS’s point of view is that PS4 will perform stronger than Xbox One in Europe, the UK and Japan, while Microsoft will continue its dominance in the US.

IHS continued, praising Sony’s competitive PS4 pricing, and conceded that Japan’s “obsession with handheld consoles,” could be a factor in Sony’s decision to move the console’s Japanese launch to 2014.

Addressing the marketing strategies of both sides, the report added, “Sony’s PS4 positioning since its announcement has been heavily centred on the gamer, while Microsoft has attempted to implement a mixed and broader entertainment and gaming message.

“This different approach will influence the choice of some early adopters. The strength of exclusives will also be key to consumer adoption; at this time IHS believes that Xbox One’s exclusives are more formidable for a wider set of gamers, especially in the opening launch period.”

Based on the above and a myriad of other factors, IHS concluded that Sony will shift 2.4 million PS4 units by the end of 2013, and that Microsoft will hit 2.2 million Xbox One consoles.

The firm’s five-year projection places global PS4 sales at 49 million, and Xbox One at 38 million. It concluded, “IHS believes that Sony’s wider geographical brand allegiance – especially across continental Europe and Japan – will be decisive in allowing PS4 to outsell Xbox One on a global basis by the end of 2017.

“We also believe that both Sony and Microsoft will continue to benefit from Nintendo’s Wii U weak sales, with some past Wii users adopting the latest consoles instead of upgrading to Wii U. IHS forecasts that Sony will sell-through 49 million PS4 consoles by the end of 2017, with Microsoft managing a smaller, but significant, amount of 38 million Xbox One consoles in the same time frame.”

PS4 is out November 15 in the states and November 29 in the UK/Europe.

Xbox One is out November 22 in several territories.

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20 Comments

  1. Nam3M3King

    Lol I thought this would be patcher’s statement but joke aside, next gen will just be on oar like this gen has, both platforms have built a loyal cult following so nothing going cause such big dent

    #1 11 months ago
  2. diego-rbb-93

    These guys get paid for this shit and i have to pay for console shit.

    This is the world I live, man…

    #2 11 months ago
  3. Zackslacky

    Well said sir. Closer figures than I would have thought?

    #3 11 months ago
  4. MFBB

    Oh me too me too.

    Ahm 70 million by 2019 for PS4 and 62 million for Xbone.

    Uncharted 4 selling 6 million copies and Half Life 3 9 million copies.

    Send me a email guys if you need more news :)

    I work as a freelancer.

    #4 11 months ago
  5. dravenkaze

    Haha bring in the xboner fan boys

    #5 11 months ago
  6. Nephilimator

    Lol xbone

    #6 11 months ago
  7. ps4fanboy

    sometimes i think all these analyst firms do is kid us

    #7 11 months ago
  8. mistermogul

    @1 – Yes but you might be overestimating peoples loyalty.

    Just using me as an example who have bought the last 2 gens of Xbox, I’m not buying their 3rd gen but a PS4 instead.

    I have a feeling there are quite few others in the same situation so “loyal cult following(s)” don’t always count. Also look at how the 360 managed to take market share away from the massive crowd that PS2 had…

    #8 11 months ago
  9. Kreion

    @5

    Notice how it’s only people like you who even take analysts crap seriously…interesting huh?

    #9 11 months ago
  10. Playmaker

    @9 let him enjoy his month long PSN outage and credit card hack. You get what you pay for in this world. Interesting how Japan even takes a shhh on Sony products. Starting from PS2 Sony has only been losing market share in a shrinking console market. This is the last gen of a video game console all enjoy it while it lasts. In 5 years you will be plugging your iPad into the TV using an Apple game pad.

    #10 11 months ago
  11. dravenkaze

    Kreion me serious? Plz…. dont get so snappy you only made a comment because I did, an I know analyst stuff is lame

    #11 11 months ago
  12. BrokenIcarus

    I’d say about 45million for PS4 and 25million for XB1

    #12 11 months ago
  13. Eon

    Looking at the data and using my resources I’d suggest it will be closer to 50 million for the PS4 and 66 million for the X1 by 2017.

    #13 11 months ago
  14. jhahn505

    I’m predicting that PS4 will outsell the Xbox One at a much higher ratio.

    1.75 ps4′s per 1.00 xbox one in the U.S and at least 2.00 ps4′s per 1.00 xbox one in the rest of the world.

    The reasons are simple.

    1) The ps4 is known to be superior graphically 2) the price is $100 cheaper 3) it releases sooner than the Xbox One 4) the PS4 has all of the PR advantages “the gamer’s console” 5) I think most consumers aren’t interested in Xbox One’s new Kinect technology and have alienated most of the Xbox 360 user base.

    To say that the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 in the U.S. is a fat chance. You can’t rely on historical data and trends to project the massive hidden and obvious advantages the PS4 has over the Xbox One. Time will tell who is correct – intuition, logic, and following the news since the announcement of both consoles leads me to believe that I am right.

    #14 11 months ago
  15. antraxsuicide

    @14
    1)And clearly the PS3 sold more consoles than the Wii, so this point is valid.

    2)Solid point, no sarcasm.

    3)Only in the States. The X1 actually releases before the PS4 in the rest of the world.

    4)It has the same PR advantages that the PS3 had going into this generation. So refer to my #1.

    5)No data presented. And many analysts are saying the exact opposite. NFL Sunday Ticket alone brings in something like 20 million subscribers. Most people like media, regardless of whether you and your friends do.

    As for my predictions, I do think the PS4 will do better out of the gate. But walk-ins will swing X1 thanks to larger stock and better game options in the spring (Titanfall is going to be huge).

    #15 11 months ago
  16. jhahn505

    There’s a few reasons why I believe what I wrote.

    Story 1: http://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-beating-xbox-one-in-us-poll/1100-6415108/

    1,297 randomly polled online users in the Unites states showed that 26% of users chose the PS$ while 15% chose the Xbox One. This is a 1.73 favored ratio for the PS4. Although with the younger age group (under age 40) 41 percent favored the PS4 and 27 percent favored the Xbox One, a 1.52 favor ratio for PS4.

    I assume that these numbers would even be more lopsided considering the $100 price difference, affecting the decisions of walk-in customers in favor of PS4.

    A third party polling website shows that worldwide, 71.59% prefer the ps4 over the xbox one. This is over a 2.5 favor ratio for PS4.
    http://www.xboxonevspsfour.com/

    In reference to consumer preference, I am basing this on news stories and popularity of discussions on forums and youtube.

    Xbox One Reveal: Angry Rant by Angry Joe on youtube has a 95% like rating (a hate video on the Xbox One reveal)

    #16 11 months ago
  17. jhahn505

    The significance of the “angry joe xbox one reveal” was that it had over 2.5 million views

    #17 11 months ago
  18. fearmonkey

    But Misterxmedia says that the Xbox One is the more balanced system with a GPU in the power brick, and has a R280 GPU in it. His insider cant be wrong, right?

    lol….

    As an Xbox and Xbox 360 fan, It’s sad that MS messed up in so many ways, hopefully they get their mojo back in the generation after.

    #18 11 months ago
  19. antraxsuicide

    @16 I appreciate the links.

    But those questions would end up the same if you polled online users about whether the Wii or the PS3 was better. The PS3 would have overwhelming support, because the Wii is universally hated by gamers. But that doesn’t translate into the marketplace.

    The X1 is going after a similar crowd with its media capabilities. The people who comment on these sites represent such a small minority, it’s not even worth mentioning. There’s a reason that marketing programs at universities teach the lesson “There’s no such thing as bad press.” MS is eating it up. Because for the majority of consumers, brand loyalty isn’t a thing. People will buy the product that does what they want. The X1 has TV locked down. The PS4 doesn’t, and it’ll make a difference.

    #19 11 months ago
  20. shiva950

    I just registered to say

    PS4 is launching in 32 countries

    X1 in 13 countries… less than half

    X1 is not launching where im from and PS4 is. Every poll (blogs, facebook groups) that i have here has an equal number of PS4 to X1 ratio or X1 more than PS4. Including me i have friends waiting for X1 and we all dont even have a launch date.

    As these sites mention PS4 is advanced and stuff… did not convince me in any technological advancement. It looks as if new parts have been put into the box and changed the shape. whats extra other than gaming?

    I am eagerly waiting for the launch, hope after launch microsoft will announce launch in other parts of the world and hope ill get one soon :-)

    edit: i thought of adding this one. Why would a company do 10,000 events on launch date spending so much money if their unit sale is damn low. And if PS4 is already pre-orders sold so many consoles how come sony is not doing the same? Dont say simplicity….. it just bores me

    #20 11 months ago

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