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Analyst: Wii bubble “deflating,” PS3 to dominate this holiday season

Wednesday, 25th November 2009 02:55 GMT By Nathan Grayson

wii

Speaking with Gamasutra, Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz turned his crystal ball on the upcoming holiday scuffle between Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft. The bottom line? If you’re a game publisher placing your bets, move your Nintendo money into the PS3′s corner.

According to Creutz, Wii gamers are holding off on game purchases this year – at least, in comparison to last year. Thus, he concluded, core games will keep publishers’ stockings stuffed this winter, while “the Wii bubble could be deflating.”

“While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday, the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009],” he added.

The PS3′s fortunes, said Creutz, are also turning around. But in a good way. According to a survey he conducted, 21 percent of respondents plan to purchase a PS3. The Xbox 360, meanwhile, only claimed 12 percent of purchase intent. Granted, the Wii’s holding strong with 26 percent, but that’s still a far cry from the prior two holiday seasons’ almost perpetually barren Wii shelf spaces.

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33 Comments

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  1. NoxNoctisUmbra

    PS3 will dominate from this point on.. untill Xbox 3 comes out in late 2010 or 2011.. then PS4… its never ending cycle.

    #1 5 years ago
  2. perk1n

    well, I would say at least in europe.

    #2 5 years ago
  3. bugmenot

    These analysts don’t really have a clue what they’re talking about, otherwise they’d be able to get a real job. Just a reminder as to what all analysts predicted in regard to the DS, and many other examples.

    Why VG247 still features them is a mystery. Maybe so that we can all laugh about their predictions.

    #3 5 years ago
  4. Armitage

    All depends on how big the Wii bubble is. How big is it? In diameter, let’s say. 2.4 miles? 24 miles? Who knows? Nobody. That’s who. And until someone brave enough goes out there, and actually measures the bloody thing, nobody will ever know.

    #4 5 years ago
  5. NoxNoctisUmbra

    It also does not matter how many Wii consoles will be sold.. it matters how many real GAMERS buy them.. casual crowds like lil kids and wii fit women dont count…

    #5 5 years ago
  6. JPickford

    How does the PS3′s 21% ‘dominate’ the Wii’s 26%?

    #6 5 years ago
  7. Armitage

    All depends on the size of the respective bubbles, you see.

    Big bubbles. Small bubbles. Huge bubbles.

    Think about that.

    #7 5 years ago
  8. Dannybuoy

    Mmm, bubbles. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CsGo6mxQaUM

    #8 5 years ago
  9. Michael O’Connor

    Here’s an interesting read for all the Wii haters. Give it a look.

    http://blueplz.blogspot.com/2009/11/blame-game-who-is-responsible-for-wiis.html

    #9 5 years ago
  10. Hero of Canton

    Cheers for the link, MO’C – a very interesting read. Do you know the person who wrote it?

    #10 5 years ago
  11. Michael O’Connor

    Yes I do. His name is TotalBiscuit. He runs WoW Radio.

    Very smart guy, and pretty hardcore about his beliefs. Unlike most people on the internet though, he has the objective critical thinking and research to back up his strong opinions.

    #11 5 years ago
  12. Mike

    I disagree with him completely. In fact, that comment at the end of the article speaks a lot more sense, imo.

    Also, it’s pretty poorly written. Grammar and syntax all over the shop. :)

    #12 5 years ago
  13. Michael O’Connor

    You don’t need to be the next Shakespeare to make a critical observation and present it, Mike. In fact, “casual” writing, writing that is intended to sound more natural instead of “correct”, is a form of writing I completely support.

    It’s a blog, not the BBC News site.

    #13 5 years ago
  14. Hero of Canton

    I don’t think it’s poorly written at all. I’ve seen far worse on so-called ‘professional’ sites. And I think both he and the guy commenting both have a point.

    The problem with the comment is that it doesn’t discuss the Wii games which aren’t merely inferior ports of HD games. Dead Space Extraction certainly isn’t. Just because it’s a guided first-person experience (for once the PR blurb is right, it’s no mere ‘rail shooter’) doesn’t mean it’s a poor man’s Dead Space. And then you’ve got the third-party Wii exclusives (Little King’s Story, HOTD: Overkill) which haven’t sold well and don’t have an equivalent on the HD consoles. The idea of platform bias isn’t so far from the truth, though I imagine a lot of it is down to gamers struggling to go back to SD once they’ve experienced hi-def.

    #14 5 years ago
  15. Mike

    I think it’s difficult to come across as an authority on a subject if something’s poorly written. It leaves credibility cracks.

    Anyway, the smilie at the end of my comment about grammar implies I wasn’t being 100% serious. However, the first bit I meant; the comment at the end is far more succint and pretty much buries any argument he makes, imo.

    #15 5 years ago
  16. Gekidami

    I have to say that the first comment through that link by Hirvox talks more to me then whats actually written in the article.
    Dead Space Extraction is a poor example of ‘core games’ not selling well on Wii mainly because its a genre thats dosnt appeal to people any more, if anything is a good example of how games pretty much get toned down to fit the Wii more then anything else. Its also a prequel to a 360/PS3/PC only game. Seriously, how anyone could have expected it to do well on Wii makes no sense.
    And he also counts Metroid Prime Collection as one of those 4 high rating exclusive games according to Metacritics. Thats not really quite right.

    #16 5 years ago
  17. Mike

    If we’re on the subject of good blog articles about gaming, have this one: http://www.pixelpoppers.com/2009/11/awesome-by-proxy-addicted-to-fake.html

    Not how small the paragraphs are – clear, precise, succint. :P

    #17 5 years ago
  18. Hero of Canton

    Gekidami, if that genre doesn’t appeal to people any more, how do you explain the success of Resident Evil Umbrella Chronicles and Link’s Crossbow Training?

    The comment doesn’t ‘bury any argument he makes’ because while it makes a very valid point in some cases, it doesn’t wash for all the Wii exclusives which have sold poorly.

    #18 5 years ago
  19. Gekidami

    They both have ‘Resident Evil’ and ‘Zelda’ attached to them.

    #19 5 years ago
  20. Blerk

    The Wii will absolutely kick the tits off of the other two again. There is no other possible outcome.

    #20 5 years ago
  21. Hero of Canton

    I don’t think it will. I think if it does win, it’ll be a close-run thing. This is Sony’s Christmas.

    #21 5 years ago
  22. Blerk

    I think Sony’s fortunes will be much improved, and they may even edge Microsoft out in the US (Japan and Europe are almost certainly already sewn up). But the Wii? Nah. It won’t be like the previous years, but they’re still pretty safe for the top two spots.

    #22 5 years ago
  23. deftangel

    There is a tendency from the analysts to stick the knife in on the Wii because it covers up how wrong they were about it before. “Look, we were right all along, it was just a fad/anomaly!”

    That’s not to say Nintendo haven’t lost there way a bit, they simply haven’t supported the thing with enough decent software but they are just as capable of pulling another Wii Sports / Wii Fit out of the bag next year and resuming previous crazy form.

    2009 is merely a skirmish before the real deal in 2010 anyway.

    #23 5 years ago
  24. OrbitMonkey

    The statement at 5 sums up the whole “The Wii is just a fad” debate perfectly. Ps3/360 fanboys unable to accept the Wii’s dominance, making daft excuses and hoping it goes away… Just like the analyists who keep getting it wrong.

    #24 5 years ago
  25. Blerk

    2009 is merely a skirmish before the real deal in 2010 anyway.

    Haven’t we been saying the exact same thing with slightly different numbers since the Wii and PS3 launched? :-D

    #25 5 years ago
  26. reask

    @ orbitmonkey
    I reckon you are wrong about wanting it to go away.
    I am one of those dual owners and I can tell you quite honestly it seldom gets used.

    It was a Xmas present for my daughter 2 years ago.
    She does her gaming on my 360.
    For me anyway it does not have any games I want to play and could really care less if it goes away or not.
    Please dont take that as an insult Wii owners as I am sure plenty get lots of enjoyment out of it.

    I just dont get it tbh and have no intention of playing games that I have no interest in just to prove that the Wii is equal to PS360.

    #26 5 years ago
  27. Blerk

    Okay, maybe I was a bit premature in calling a win for Sony in the UK this Christmas (Wii aside, of course). I find that a little hard to believe, tbh.

    #27 5 years ago
  28. reask

    Thats mad that the US and UK account for 60% of the market.
    I reckon UK covers Ireland as well as we are also big into gaming.
    Its the weather I reckon it never stops fucking raining. :)

    #28 5 years ago
  29. TechRyze

    I recmon that all Wii owners are interested in this winter is New Super Mario Bros, or Wii fit – depending on the owner.

    I wonder if Nintendo will wake up now?

    F-Zero? Pilotwings? Killer Instinct?

    #29 5 years ago
  30. Blerk

    Can you really imagine any of those selling in significant numbers these days, though? The Nintendo audience isn’t what it used to be.

    Of the three, Pilotwings probably stands the best chance, but even that’s not a guaranteed success – look at PunchOut.

    #30 5 years ago
  31. OlderGamer

    You guys are really something. I think reask nails it. But I think orbit is spot on too. The rest of you? meh, denial I think. I own everything. Been lucky enough to be able to do that scince the Commadore 64.
    I own a couple of Wii games. We have Smash Bros(kids), Geo Wars(mine), WiiFit(Wife), Metriod(kids). And it just sits there most of the time. My kids play the 360(Halo/battlefield/DW Gundam, etc), wife plays so many puzzle games on the 360 I have nitemars about green Bubs, ball spewing frogs, and matching colored shapes, everyone plays the PS3(LBP mostly). I play the 360 mostly.
    No one plays the Wii.
    Untill now, last nite to exact.
    You see all it really takes is one game. For us that one game is the New Super Mario Bros Wii. I recomend that people stop yacking about what they play and why they don’t play the Wii, and just go(heck run) to the store and bring that game home. Unless your 15-25 yr old, male, and get off on head shots, then go play yet another round of your fav FPS flavor. If your gaming tatses go beyond that. If your looking for fun. Do yourself a favor go get NSMBWii. We tried it in a store and two days later(for my wifes bday) we own it. Amazingly fun.
    I hate the SD after playing the spiffy PS360 stuff. But we have the upgraded wii cables. And on a 32inch hd tv, at 480p, its not too bad at all. After your first course clear, you forget all about it. Trust me. If words gets out this holiday season. This single game could be the biggest seller this year. Yes, I think it could out do MW2 on a single system for sales. That might be a streach, but who knows. Also as for the arogance(and that is what it is) that one system has “real” gamers vs another system? Gimmie a break. No doubt that different demographics exist. But I know of people that are 50plus and own a PS3 for blurays. They don’t buy alot of games either. I also know a 50plus couple that owns a xb360, and they are avid Halo fans, playing online most weekends. So go figure.
    I don’t see the Wii as a fad. It is a game system. Period. And nintendo has made a killing off of it. Props to them. Play what you want but get off your soap box, and stop bitching about the evils of the wii, you sound like a fool.

    #31 5 years ago
  32. OrbitMonkey

    @OlderGamer: Could not agree more.

    #32 5 years ago
  33. TotalBiscuit

    @Mike – I’m glad you took the time to read the article, though I must say I find your nebulous remarks about ‘poor grammar and syntax’ perplexing. Perhaps if you pointed to some specific instances? The same applies to your assertion that the comment buries the argument. On what grounds? Merely waving a magic wand doesn’t make it true.

    If we look at his points, firstly he views Extraction as a ‘cut-down railshooter’. I would suggest that he hasn’t played it. Having beaten both I can safely say that they are two very different experiences and in terms of innovation, Extraction is the biggest leap forward in light-gun shooters since Time Crisis, sporting several unique mechanics. It also looks great and is fantastically atmospheric.

    His point about ports is invalid, since the research also stated that the Wii has more platform exclusives than any other current generation console. No-one is suggesting buying Ghostbusters on Wii when you can get it on PS3, unless you’re a real fan of the control method. He also didn’t read the entire article, that much is clear, because he is arguing that ‘some of those good games are Gamecube ports’. Yeah, well I also stated that I did not count those in the exclusives tally.

    In fact, reading the rest of his comment, I’m pretty convinced he didn’t read the entire thing. A shame really, it would have saved him some time, those points were refuted before he even wrote them.

    May I also point out that his point about Okami is moot because it also didn’t sell particularly well on the PS2 either. He ignored the Zak and Wiki statistic, since I assume it was convenient to do so. After all, his logic crumbles when confronted with that, which was a platform exclusive.

    Regardless, thanks for taking the time to read the article. I would appreciate some tips on the writing style, if you are commenting from a position of authority on the matter :)

    #33 5 years ago