Tag Archives: michael patcher

We met up with Michael Pachter at GDC yesterday. In return for us showing him where to pick up his badge and sneaking him into the Luminaries Lunch, he told us why he thought Rockstar and Microsoft have yet to release any concrete download numbers for GTA IV DLC, The Lost and Damned.

The Wedbush Morgan analyst reckoned the content has so far failed to meet expectations for either company.

“It’s not like The Lost and Damned sucked, because it didn’t, and it’s not because [they] did not market it well,” he said.

“I just don’t think it has met their expectations, and it would have been better if they had set their expectations realistically.”

Pachter opined that the Live attach rate is one of the reasons The Lost and Damned hadn’t hit the intended mark.

“The main reason is because not too many Xbox 360 owners are hooked up to Xbox Live,” he said.

“100 percent of GTA IV owners are not hooked up to XBL. Therefore by definition, not every single person who owns GTA IV has Xbox Live. Because of this, I don’t think the numbers were as high as they had hoped for.

“When I personally look at DLC, I wait until the second one is released, that way I have over 40 hours of extra content instead of 20. It’s like playing a whole other game,” he added. “And I think a lot of people feel the same way.

He also added that he expects Rockstar to eventually offer a special edition of GTA IV to include both The Lost and Damned and the second, in-the-works piece of DLC.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Patcher said today that while the February NPD looks good on paper, he expects “limited market reaction” to the figures.

While most publishers met or exceeded expectations – THQ not being one of them – Patcher said the figures would not effect stock buying options in a note today.

“We expect limited market reaction to the sales data”, he said. “While overall sales growth was quite respectable, Activision, Electronic Arts, THQ, Take-Two, and Ubisoft all delivered negative or flat sales compared to last year, with the month’s upside generated by solid performances from Nintendo, Sony and Capcom.

“Additionally, many publishers have adopted conservative views about the year, and we think that concerns about the economy are likely to limit share price appreciation.

“We think that this negativism could provide an opportunity, as solid hardware sales imply continued software sales strength well into 2009, and we continue to believe that the video game software sector remains highly recession-resistant”.

While he did admit that the strong software performance is “sustainable well into 2009″, he said software sales are likely to level out in August.

Rockstar may not have released download numbers for The Lost and Damned yet, but that hasn’t stopped Michael Patcher from throwing around a “1 million” figure.

The analyst has estimated that Rockstar’s DLC has sold into seven digits so far, and will reach 2 million by the end of the year.

While he was peeking into his crystal ball, he also predicted that the second GTA IV episode is “likely” to arrive towards the end of Rockstar’s October 31 fiscal year.

Even more, he said today that a new console title in the GTA series will arrive by the end of 2010, and is likely to generate 50 percent more profits than previous installments, due to the growth in general console installed base.

“We don’t think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25 – 30 per cent penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15 – 18 million units sold,” said Pachter.

“That means that Take-Two’s profits from the next iteration should be approximately 50 percent greater than from the last version.”

He reached this conclusion because in 2010 consoles are expected to be in 60 million homes in the US and Europe, with 30 percent of those owners likely to pick up a new GTA game.

We have put a call into Rockstar for comment.

During the annual company town hall meeting this week, EA’s John Riccitiello assured employees that despite Q3 losses announced on Tuesday, the company still plans to take risks with both new and proven franchises.

Comms boss Jeff Brown reiterated this when he told Kotaku: “We can take risks because we are pretty sure our blockbusters are going to generate good revenue that allow us some cushion. So we’re not living hand to mouth.”

With EA releasing more proven IPs to retail this year, Brown said this does not mean that there will be a lack of new titles.

“We are working on Dante’s Inferno, Dragon Age, things like that, new games, either announced or about to be announced,” he said.

“You will not be able to see a dramatic drop off original IP.”

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter does not agree, though, and feels that developers can’t afford to take such risks, referring to financial pickles both EA and THQ got themselves into last year.

“If you take too many in a row you end up with no money and no franchises,” he said.

“Even EA got in trouble last year doing way too much. The right idea is to have your core franchises and then take measured risks.

“It’s easier to sell a (bad) Iron Man game or a 50 Cent game with the right license and it’s hard to create a new Dead Space. The cost of potential failure (on a new idea) is too high.

“I think you’re going to see moving forward one new game a year from a publisher, not five.”

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Patcher has said that the absence of Dark Knight videogame would have cost Warner Bros roughly $100 million in sales, the AP writes.

“Based on the record-breaking success of the movie, Wedbush Morgan video game industry analyst Michael Pachter believes a Dark Knight game released at the same time as the blockbuster film last month could have sold 4 million units and banked $100 million — with $70 million going to the game’s publisher and $30 million going to Warner Bros,” says the piece.

Actor Gary Oldman has confirmed that a game is in the works but it is nowhere to be seen in EA’s Q1 09 release schedule.

By Mike Bowden