Tag Archives: Colin Sebastian

Industry analysts have expressed confidence in the Sony’s decision to release a Wi-Fi version Vita, and feel that it will be a much bigger hit in the US than the 3G version, which could end up collecting dust on retail shelves.

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Sony will get the jump on Microsoft and release PlayStation 4 before the next Xbox in 2014, according to one US analyst.

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Analysts are convinced Nintendo has aggressively lowered the price of its 3DS handheld in order to best Sony’s Vita when it hits the market.

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In a Baird Equity Research report, analyst Colin Sebastian said the firm expects GameStop’s digital business to hit $1.5 billion annually by 2014.

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Analysts have predicted that 500,000 3DS consoles were sold in the handhelds first five days on sale in the US, but also that sales have dropped off markedly.

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Lovely, small, bite-sized news for the win. Click onward adventurers.

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Lizard Capital’s Colin Sebastian has stood firm by his prediction that Homefront will shift 1.5 million units by the end of the month.

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Lazard Capital analyst Colin Sebastian has said he expects 1.5 million units of Kaos shooter Homefront to ship at launch next week.

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With the announcement for NGP from Sony this morning, three industry analysts have weighed-in on the news: Mike Hickey of Janco Partners, Lazard Capital Markets’ Colin Sebastian, and Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter. So did John Carmack, technical director at id Software.

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Think Kinect’s going to bomb when it releases? One analyst reckons you’re all naysayers.

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Industry analysts are predicting an 8-15 percent decline in US hardware and software sales ahead of June’s NPD figures.

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Due to some job postings over on Amazon, Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian believes the online retailer is planning to expand it’s online digital game download service to be a bit more like Steam’s.

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Colin Sebastian, analyst for Lazard Capital Markets, has revealed in the firm’s latest note to investors that sales of New Super Mario Bros Wii are “off to a good start after three days at retail”.

This information was obtained through a meeting with Nintendo yesterday, and while sales for the game are moving in a positive direction, Sebastian is unsure if the title has make a dent in “incremental hardware sales”.

The analyst feels that the next 12-months are integral for Nintendo, and positive sales will depend on the software line-up for the next year. However, he claims that the gaming giant remains “upbeat” regarding 2010 and that the company plans to be “more vigilant” in the fight against piracy.

More through GI.biz.

Best Buy now has trial kiosks set up in some of its US stores full of used games.

The stores are also allowing customers to trade used games for store credit.

Analysts predict this could result in the used game market earning $3 billion annually combined with GameStop and other stores that sell used games.

“While we believe that Best Buy’s entry into the used video game market will create a new overhang on shares of GameStop,” wrote Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets. “We expect Best Buy’s initiative to expand the used videogame market rather than take significant share from the specialty channel.

“We estimate the size of the commercial used videogame market in the USD 2.5 billion range worldwide, continuing to grow, driven by major players including GameStop, Game Group, Game Crazy, and Internet marketplaces such as eBay and Amazon.”

Via GI.biz.

Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian reckons that online games will generate upwards of $11 billion of revenue this year, thereby making up 25 per cent of total industry earnings.

“We estimate that online video games will generate more than $11 billion in revenues this year, up from $3 billion in 2005, and account for roughly 25% of industry game sales worldwide,” said Sebastian.

“In this respect, we continue to believe that the Internet is emerging as an important growth driver and content platform, weaving together communication, information, commerce and entertainment.

“In addition, 2009 may be remembered as the year in which the pace of change in media consumption accelerated, while 2010 and 2011 may bring improved monetization and mass market adoption of web-based applications and digital content, in particular interactive entertainment.”

Thanks, Gama.

In other analyst news: Webush Morgan’s Michael Pachter said earlier today that he believes the US will see a 50% decline in hardware sales for May. NPD results are in this Thursday.

Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian says that the PS3 could get a $100 price cut between E3 and the end summer.

Putting the console at $299 would not only be good for business, but the purse strings as well. Anything less “would likely be perceived negatively by the market,” Sebastian told Gamasutra.

“In addition to a $100 price reduction, which would put the PS3 in easier reach of a mass market audience, we note that Sony has a healthy lineup of upcoming first-party video games planned over the next year, including inFAMOUS, God of War III, Heavy Rain, Uncharted 2 and Gran Turismo 5,” said Sebastian.

“For Sony PlayStation, we believe the next 12 months are critical to regain market share, particularly with Nintendo losing some momentum near- term, and with Microsoft likely introducing a new gesture-based user interface.”

More through the link.

Lazard analyst Colin Sebastian said the the research firm expects US software sales to round the $10 billion mark “for the first time.”

On the whole, the US market was up from five to ten percent in spite of the current economic crisis.

What won’t really come as a surprise to anyone is that Lazard says Nintendo dominated the market for the month, saying the family friendly Wii sold over 3 million units.

Of the other two, Sebastian added:

“”We also believe Xbox 360 sales benefited from the fall price reductions, particularly with the Arcade console now at a $199 value price point.”

“While the PS3 continues to lose market share, we note that publishers and retailers alike are anticipating a price reduction on the platform this year,” he said.

The official NPD numbers are released tomorrow evening at circa 0030 CET. Make sure you’re right here to get them when they arrive.

Thanks, Edge.

By Mike Bowden

Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian issued a research note today saying that a new Princess Peach title and, wait for it, a brand new Zelda title would help game sales grow 5 percent in 2009.

That was the good news. The bad news is that the new Zelda title is pure guesswork in his part. The Princess Peach adventure isn’t.

GTA V was also included in his research: “Looking ahead to 2009, we expect mid-single-digit growth in software sales on a tough growth comparison and potentially fewer hit titles (eg, no GTA V until 2010),” he wrote.

However, when Gamespot quizzed him on that, “Sebastian said he wasn’t so much specifying 2010 as a release window for the game as telling investors that it would definitely not be coming out in 2009.”

So a huge non-event really. Sorry about that. More through the link, though.

By Mike Bowden

Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian’s significantly dropped his outlook on EA, saying several holiday franchises are tracking lowere than expected and that more cost-cutting is likely to be announced in the coming quarters.

“Specifically,” he said in a note this afternoon, “we believe several EA titles are tracking below plan at retail this holiday, including Need for Speed Undercover (with disappointing reviews), new franchise Mirror’s Edge, and Rock Band 2. Solid sales of Dead Space, FIFA 09, and Left4Dead are helping to offset the weaker titles, in our view.”

The analyst reduced his Q3 revenue estimate from $2.07 billion to $1.23 billion.

“We believe further cost and franchise reductions are likely,” he added.

“Importantly, we believe EA is continuing to review its cost structure and franchise base, and it is possible that management will announce further cuts in headcount and the development pipeline (including existing franchises) over the coming quarters.”

It’s NPD week! Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian just issued a note saying the firm expects Wii sales to have dropped in the US last month, although the doomsayer may have to wait for their “I told you so” moment for a while yet.

“We believe a sequential decline in Wii sales is possible in July, and would indicate a pre-holiday inventory build rather than a demand issue,” said the analyst. “We also note that the console appears to be in stock at many overseas retail locations.”

Sebastian went on to predict that we can expect hardware “enhancements” to both PSP and DS this year.

“We expect a number of meaningful hardware announcements this fall, likely to include price cuts on the Xbox 360 and enhancements to handheld systems from Sony (PSP) and Nintendo (DS),” he said.

NPD results are out this Thursday, August 14.