Tag Archives: webush morgan

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 may have set a new record for the biggest entertainment launch in history, but a decline in ongoing sales has caused the title to be overtaken in life-to-date sales for the same period by series’ predecessor Call of Duty: Black Ops.

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Michael Pachter has said that the next generation of consoles will not launch until 2013, if at all.

In a recent industry newsletter he sent to our in-boxes, Pachter reiterated what he told us at GDC that this current console generation is that last, and if not – it’s going to be a while.

“We do not expect a “new” console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” he wrote. “We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all.

“We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.

“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6–10 percent for another five years.

“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”

Place your bets now.

Rockstar may not have released download numbers for The Lost and Damned yet, but that hasn’t stopped Michael Patcher from throwing around a “1 million” figure.

The analyst has estimated that Rockstar’s DLC has sold into seven digits so far, and will reach 2 million by the end of the year.

While he was peeking into his crystal ball, he also predicted that the second GTA IV episode is “likely” to arrive towards the end of Rockstar’s October 31 fiscal year.

Even more, he said today that a new console title in the GTA series will arrive by the end of 2010, and is likely to generate 50 percent more profits than previous installments, due to the growth in general console installed base.

“We don’t think it is reasonable to estimate that sales of GTA will double the prior version, but we think that a 25 – 30 per cent penetration is reasonable, suggesting 15 – 18 million units sold,” said Pachter.

“That means that Take-Two’s profits from the next iteration should be approximately 50 percent greater than from the last version.”

He reached this conclusion because in 2010 consoles are expected to be in 60 million homes in the US and Europe, with 30 percent of those owners likely to pick up a new GTA game.

We have put a call into Rockstar for comment.