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Analyst: Wii bubble "deflating," PS3 to dominate this holiday season


Speaking with Gamasutra, Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz turned his crystal ball on the upcoming holiday scuffle between Sony, Nintendo, and Microsoft. The bottom line? If you're a game publisher placing your bets, move your Nintendo money into the PS3's corner.

According to Creutz, Wii gamers are holding off on game purchases this year - at least, in comparison to last year. Thus, he concluded, core games will keep publishers' stockings stuffed this winter, while "the Wii bubble could be deflating."

"While we believe the Wii is likely to be a drag on overall software sales through the holiday, the impact should be limited to those publishers which have invested significantly in Wii development, with the biggest negative impact likely to be felt by Electronic Arts, which (unwisely in our view) heavily invested in Wii development for [calendar 2009]," he added.

The PS3's fortunes, said Creutz, are also turning around. But in a good way. According to a survey he conducted, 21 percent of respondents plan to purchase a PS3. The Xbox 360, meanwhile, only claimed 12 percent of purchase intent. Granted, the Wii's holding strong with 26 percent, but that's still a far cry from the prior two holiday seasons' almost perpetually barren Wii shelf spaces.

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