Analyst - SWTOR could lose 450K subs by end of fiscal year

Cowen and Company analyst Doug Creutz has estimated player subscriptions for Star Wars: The Old Republic will have dropped from 1.7 million at the beginning of 2012 to 1.25 million by the end of EA's current fiscal year in March 2013.

Creutz also believes the reason EA started heavily promoting the MMO could be in direct response to declining subscribers.

"We believe that the apparent decline in subscribers is most likely due to a lack of 'end-game' content for the title, meaning that players who hit the level cap have few compelling options in terms of ongoing game play," he said. "While the game got off to a good start, the relatively light amount of end-game content does appear to be taking a toll.

"We believe EA is attempting to address the end-game content issue, including a recent major game update, but momentum appears to have stalled and we believe it is prudent to adopt a more conservative forecast on subscribers at this time."

Despite a suspected decline in subs, Creutz said EA's "highly predictable" sports franchises and continued success in the digital sector will contribute to a positive outlook for the company's fiscal year-end.

Thanks, Gamasutra.