Research firm DFC Intelligence has issued a sales forecast for Nintendo Switch, and according its estimates, the console hybrid is slated to out sell its predecessor by 26 million units by 2020.
According to an analysis by DFC head David Cole (thanks, GI.biz), sales are expected to be limited at first due to the launch lineup and lack of stock. But by 2020, the firm expects Nintendo Switch to have sold 40 million units.
While that is a large figure, especially when compared to lifetime sales of Wii U as of September 2016, DFC remains guarding in its forecast.
“Demand is expected to be strong and the major issue will be whether the system can attract a broad audience starting in the holiday sales season of 2017, said Cole. “Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market.
“However given the limited software and Nintendo’s poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.”
Wii U was released in late 2012, and as noted above, only managed to sell approximately 13.34 million units over the last four years.
In contrast, as of September 20, 2016, Wii has moved 101.6 million units over the last ten years. That’s close to 10.2 million units per year.
Nintendo Switch will launch on March 3.