According to some industry insiders, it looks as though consumers will have to wait until 2014 for a new PlayStation or Xbox console.
Nintendo will be the first out of the gate
Various sources speaking with Kotau, claim both firm’s are waiting out the current gen consoles, in order to reap the most benefit from each, which would give Nintendo at the very least, two full years ahead should rumors of Project Cafe’s 2012 release prove true.
“Both MS and Sony are telegraphing to each other that they’re delaying, to milk the current [generation] and fill in previous craters better,” said one insider who worked with first-party companies told Kotkau.
Other sources who are under strict lip zipping from Microsoft and Sony agree with the 2014 target, but told Kotaku either could push for a 2013 should one or the other feel pressured.
According to the main source of this information, Microsoft will release a different Xbox SKU in 2013, but itwill not be the oft-rumored Xbox 720, only a Kinect-upgraded 360. Supposedly, Microsoft “is wrestling with whether to be profitable on day one,” or launch a new console at a loss as usual.
What the analysts think
“I think we’ll see a game of chicken between Sony and Microsoft,” M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon told Kotaku. “Sony definitely isn’t launching a successor before 2014 and could stand to benefit by having Microsoft launch first as PS3 builds in to North America and builds a strong position in Europe.
“Microsoft claims there’s a lot more room in Xbox 360 for developers to max out, but here PS3 could have a strong advantage.”
Pigeon said Sony will continue to capitalize on PS3 in order to make the most of the “headroom” still available to developers.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes the slow economy is the main reason Sony and Microsoft will not be releasing a new system any time soon.
“I don’t think either Sony or Microsoft are interested in a new console till they can advance the technology, and they certainly don’t want to launch at a $600 price point,” he said. “It may take till 2014 to get 2TB hard drives, uber fast CPUs and state-of-the art graphics and sell at $400.”
This will allow Nintendo plenty of space in the market should it announce its rumored console during E3, as industry sources have claimed, and may in turn cause Microsoft and Sony to “quickly get a lot more serious about next generation,” added Pidgeon.