Tag Archives: npd data

NPD sales estimates have been released for America, and Xbox 360 has emerged as the victor of a busy November, the same month that saw Black Friday sales and the launch of Wii U. Microsoft’s console sold an estimated 1,400,000 units in November alone, trumping last year’s thanksgiving sales. See where everyone else placed below.

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It has not – for obvious reasons – been an enjoyable 24 hours for the gaming industry. But hey, it’s not quite all doom and gloom, seeing as October swung in and finally saved software sales from their six-month downward tumble. Also, Microsoft’s looking pretty pleased with itself on both the software and hardware fronts. Everyone else, though? Not so much.

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When you hear the word “April,” what do you think of? Chocolate rabbits? Practical jokes? Finally taking down your Christmas lights?

Well, we think of videogame sales. That’s all we think of. Ever.

See inside our minds after the break.

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Nintendo may not have put in a vintage performance for August’s NPD top-ten software sales, but numbers 11-20 are another story entirely. Mainstays like New Super Mario Bros. and Mario Kart DS were joined – but not surpassed – by Ninty newcomers like Professor Layton and Madden NFL 10.

The full list is after the break. Thanks, GoNintendo.

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The NPD numbers are in for the month of August, and the industry saw its sixth consecutive month-over-month decline, what with the 16 percent slip year-on-year.

While this is an improvement over the past few month, the decline can only be combated by climbing 14 percent aggregate for 2009 to “come in flat in comparison to 2008 sales,” says NPD Group’s Anita Frazier.

Combined sales of accessories, hardware, and software, and accessories totaled $908.72 million, which compared to $848.9 million in July, shows improvement, if only slight.

Accessories were only category to experience an increase over last year’s sales, and this surge in sales of peripherals and controllers owes thanks in part to the upward trend in hardware sales.

With the price cuts for PS3 and Xbox 360 just getting started, next month’s figures should prove to be more interesting, indeed.

Doublefine daddy Tim Schafer thinks you should stop studying the NPDs until you’re bloody and broken and get on with your life. His rationale: Publishers don’t give two flips about sales so long as you make great games.

“Fans worry too much about sales, to tell you the truth,” he told MTV Multiplayer. “As long as you make a cool game, publishers want to talk to you… [They say] ‘We liked Psychonauts and we think we could have sold it better’.”

Schafer doesn’t plan on breaking too many marketing teams, though. Speaking of his upcoming title, Brutal Legend, he said:

“[It is] a game that naturally has more commercial hooks, like hot babes and Jack Black.”

The man’s cracked the code, clearly. Brutal Legend will hit the Xbox 360 and PS3 later this year.

It’s NPD week! Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian just issued a note saying the firm expects Wii sales to have dropped in the US last month, although the doomsayer may have to wait for their “I told you so” moment for a while yet.

“We believe a sequential decline in Wii sales is possible in July, and would indicate a pre-holiday inventory build rather than a demand issue,” said the analyst. “We also note that the console appears to be in stock at many overseas retail locations.”

Sebastian went on to predict that we can expect hardware “enhancements” to both PSP and DS this year.

“We expect a number of meaningful hardware announcements this fall, likely to include price cuts on the Xbox 360 and enhancements to handheld systems from Sony (PSP) and Nintendo (DS),” he said.

NPD results are out this Thursday, August 14.

In the wake of May’s NPD release Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has warned that focusing on the struggle between 360 and PS3 in the US is missing the point. The real story is about Nintendo.

“I don’t really think that Microsoft and Sony are doing badly – just doing badly in comparison to Nintendo,” he told Kotaku.

“It makes sense that PS3 and 360 are doing about the same… instead of saying ‘what’s wrong with Sony and Microsoft,’ we should be looking at Nintendo and saying, ‘how the hell do they keep doing this?’”

More through the link.

Lazard Capital and Wedbush Morgan have both put out bullish growth figure for the US games market this morning, ahead of the release of May NPD data this week.

The former is predicting 30 percent growth year-on-year for the month, with Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter pushing the boat out a little further to 39 percent.

“We expect May US retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, June 12,” said the games analysis superstar. “We forecast sales of $530 million, +39% compared to last year’s $381 million.”

NPD day’s out favourite day in the entire month. It’s what gets us out of bed in the morning, every morning. God bless you, growth.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter just issued a research note saying he expects that Xbox 360 outsold PS3 in the US last month.

“We estimate sell-through of 750,000 Wii, 250,000 Xbox 360 and 225,000 PS3 consoles. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 744,000 Wii, 216,000 Xbox 360 and 228,000 PS3 consoles sold, while VGChartz forecasts 645,327 Wii, 191,992 Xbox 360 and 177,989 PS3 consoles sold.

“Our console sell-through forecasts reflect our belief that supplies for Wii hardware were steady this month, and our belief that Xbox 360 and PS3 hardware sales grew early in the month due to higher attach rates to GTA IV.”

Pachter’s comments come ahead of this week’s May NPD data.

Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian said this morning that while he expects a 360 price drop this year in the $50 region, a PS3 cut is not expected.

“We continue to expect Xbox 360 price cuts this year (~$50 reduction), while Sony appears content to focus on achieving PlayStation profitability at the current PS3 price points,” the analyst said in a note ahead of May NPD data this week.

Sebastian said last month that he didn’t expect to see a drop on PS3 in the US in 2008, this new statement being a reiteration of the message a month previous.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael has issued a research note exclaiming “surprise” at sluggish 360 and PS3 console sales in April. Both machines came in well under his previous estimates.

“We were surprised by relatively weak PS3 and Xbox 360 sales, especially given the launch of Grand Theft Auto IV late in the month,” he said. “We had expected sales of both consoles to increase month over month, as we thought that many potential console owners were waiting for the game to launch before purchasing a console.”

The NPD figures for last month showed that 188,000 360s were sold in the US, compared to Pachter’s 275,000 estimate; and 187,000 PS3s were sold, compared to a predicted 290,000 from the analyst.

For all our April NPD coverage, hit this.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has released a research note saying that he expects PS3 to have outsold Xbox 360 in the US in April.

Here are his estimates, according to Next-Gen (simExchange predictions):

Wii: 600,000 (734,000)
PS3: 290,000 (363,000)
Xbox 360: 275,000 (381,000)
PS2: 160,000 (n/a)
DS: 550,000 (609,000)
PSP: 235,000 (282,000)

We asked Michael whether or not he believed 360 outsold PS3 in April this morning, to which he replied, “Yes.” Not sure what happened there, but there we go.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has just told videogaming247 that he expects the Xbox 360 version of GTA IV outsold the PS3 version in America last month, ahead of NPD data to be released this week.

The analyst said that his research note on the figures is to be released in approximately 35 minutes. Stay tuned, stat fans.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has just told videogaming247 that he expects Xbox 360 to have outsold PS3 in America last month, ahead of NPD data to be released this week.

The analyst said that his research note on the figures is to be released in approximately 45 minutes. Stay tuned, stat fans.

Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian has predicted a 35 percent increase in March US sales year-on-year ahead of tomorrow’s NPD data.

“We estimate video game software sales increased 35%+ in March. NPD is scheduled to release video game sell-through data tomorrow afternoon,” he said in a research note. “Based on our retail and industry checks, we expect software growth to meet, and perhaps exceed, our original 35% estimate with the Easter/spring break shift boosting a solid release schedule, which included Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Nintendo), Rainbow Six: Vegas 2 (UbiSoft) and Army of Two (ERTS).”

Sebastian’s prediction follows Michael Pachter’s note yesterday that he expects a 47 percent increase for March.

According to a research note just issued by Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter, NPD data issued this week is likely to show that the US market grew by 47 percent year on year in March.

Pachter predicted that total US sales hit $850 million, compared to $579 million in 2007.

More from the note below. NPD figures are expected on Thursday, April 17, after close of market. Round about the same time as the Take-Two AGM, hilariously.

• We expect March U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday,
  April 17. We forecast sales of $850 million, +47% compared to last year’s $579 million.
• Our estimate reflects $705 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current
  generation software sales of $145 million. We estimate sell-through of 700,000 Wii, 310,000 Xbox 360 and 365,000 PS3
  consoles. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 581,000 Wii, 296,000 Xbox 360
  and 301,000 PS3 consoles sold. Our console sell-through forecasts reflect our belief that supplies for Wii and DS
  hardware improved during the month.
• Console software sales growth in 2007 was a robust 34%. In 2008, software sales have remained strong, +11% in
  January and +47% in February. We expect the February sales trend to continue in March, and even greater growth in
  April (with Nintendo’s Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time/Darkness (DS) and Mario Kart Wii, and Take-
  Two’s highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto IV (360, PS3)), with the sector appearing highly recession-resistant.
• We expect 19% overall software sales growth in 2008, with continued momentum over the next two months from a
  very strong new release line-up, giving way to more modest growth later in the year. We recommend that investors
  accumulate Activision, Electronic Arts, Nintendo, THQ, and Ubisoft shares at current levels.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has just issued a research note that predicts PS3 outsold Xbox 360 in the US last month.

The analyst said that he expects PS3 to have sold 365,000 units to Xbox 360′s 310,000.

He said that PS2 is expected to have sold 320,000 machines, and that PSP moved 300,000 consoles.

Wii and DS, Pachter said, will have sold around 700,000 units a piece.

Lazard Capital’s Colin Sebastian just published a note saying he expects next week’s March NDP data to show a heavy sales rise for the month.

“We estimate 35 percent growth in March software data,” he said. “Next week, NPD is scheduled to release industry sell-through data for the month of March. We believe software sales benefited from several strong new title releases, catalog sales of titles such as Call of Duty (ATVI) and Rock Band (MTV/ERTS), the shift of the Easter holiday into March (from April last year), earlier spring breaks, and improving PS3 hardware sales.”

He added: “Industry sales trends remain positive into Spring. Our retail and industry channel checks indicate that video game selling trends remain positive through early April. Specifically, we believe there is little spillover into the video game market from overall consumer spending weakness, and that key software releases have sold well, including Super Smash Brawl (Nintendo), Rainbow Six: Vegas 2 (UbiSoft), and Army of Two (ERTS).”

We love NPD data. It’s our favourite time of the month. Give us some American sales figures, right now.

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has told videogaming247 that his firm expects that PS3 outsold Xbox 360 in February, ahead of the release of NPD data on Thursday. PS3′s lead over the Microsoft machine, Pachter reasoned, was due to continuing supply issues for Xbox 360.

His view is in contradiction to The simExchange’s prediction that 360 had moved ahead of PS3 in February.

“We expect February U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, March 13. We forecast sales of $575 million, 27% compared to last year’s $454 million. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts overall software sales of $592 million,” he said.

“Our estimate reflects $485 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $90 million. We estimate sell-through of 300,000 Wii, 250,000 Xbox 360 and 260,000 PS3 consoles. For purposes of comparison, The simExchange prediction market forecasts 450,000 Wii, 285,000 Xbox 360 and 270,000 PS3
consoles sold in February. Our console sell-through forecasts reflect our belief that Wii, DS and Xbox 360 hardware continued to be supply constrained during the month. With the launch of several high-profile games in March, we expect supplies for the consoles to increase.”

Pachter is predicting that 360 and PS3 will remain fairly closely matched in the US for the rest of this year, with PS3 pulling ahead as we move into 2009.