Tag Archives: mike hickey

Despite Rockstar pushing Max Payne 3 into May from March yesterday, several analysts are of the belief the company will have Grand Theft Auto V released within Take Two FY2013.

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Analysts have Grand Theft Auto V pegged for a short by PR cycle, but a long string of numbers before the word “sales”.

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Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey has said it’s possible BioShock: Infinite could end up moving 4.9 million copies and amass $221 million in sales. In his latest note to investors, Hickey said should the game achieve such success, it could outpace BioShock 2 which shipped 3 million as of March 2010. Infinite is out next year on PC, PS3, and Xbox 360. Via Gamespot.

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The weekend is almost here – at least in the US. You UK folks are already drinking cider, and the like.  Instead of pouting and throwing ourselves to the floor in a bitter fit, we’ll be nice as post some small news bits.

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Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey expects Nintendo to ship over eight million 3DS to the western market during its first year at retail.

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With the announcement for NGP from Sony this morning, three industry analysts have weighed-in on the news: Mike Hickey of Janco Partners, Lazard Capital Markets’ Colin Sebastian, and Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter. So did John Carmack, technical director at id Software.

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Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey has predicted StarCraft II unit sales could reach 7 million during Blizzard’s current fiscal year, bringing in $350 million in sales and $171 million in operating profit.

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Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey has said that he believes Infinity Ward will be “essentially closed” once the next map pack for Modern Warfare 2 is released.

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EA’s forecast for FY10 revealed this week has been met with disappointment from investors, according to industry and investment analysts who feel that something “drastic” has to happen to turn things around for EA.

This lack of investor confidence has put CEO John Riccitiello in an unenviable position, causing Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey to state that Riccitiello’s “inability to execute on his performance objectives this year could put him at risk”.

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Not only is LA Noire not dead, but it’s also “innovative”. Take-Two CEO Ben Feder said so in the publisher’s Q3 earnings call last night.

“It’s in development,” he said in response to a direct question on the game’s status from Janco’s Mike Hickey.

“Nothing to announce today. When we have more to announce we will announce it. We’re continuing to develop it. We think it’s pretty exciting and innovative, and when we have more to share we’ll share it.”

Interestingly, when Hickey asked if Rockstar San Diego was working on the game, Feder emphatically answered:

“It’s handled by Rockstar.”

Wasn’t Rockstar’s Australian team doing this?

Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey believes that StarCraft II will not be released until 2010 due to lead designer Dustin Browder’s comments regarding “four to six months” worth of Beta testing.

With Blizzard stating that the game is set to be released during fall/holiday 2009, Hickey feels that this will be pushing it.

“We find it increasingly probably that the game will be released in [Activision's] fiscal ’10 period,” he told Gamasutra.

He also sees WoW’s way forward to be a bit rough due to the “looming competition in the West from new MMORPGs”.

More predictions through the links.

Via BigDownload.

Janco Partners’ Mike Hickey has predicted that Modern Warfare 2 will not only rake-in $338 million in sales it’s first day on the market, but that it will be the “largest videogame release of the year” by moving 11.1 million units by the close of 2009.

“We believe Modern Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for [calendar year] 2009,” wrote the analyst in an investor’s note. “For the Company’s fiscal Q409 period (Dec. ending), we anticipate the sell through to consumers of 11.1 million units for an estimated retail value of $803 million and sell-in approximating 12.4 million units, for an approximated sales value of $666 million (we assume demand is 90% of supply).

“We estimate the combined Xbox 360 and PS3 installed base for US and Europe has grown +125% and +200%, respectively since Modern Warfare’s November ’07 release, ushering in a remarkably larger market opportunity for Modern Warfare 2.”

More analysis and psychic readings over on Gamasutra.

Thanks to strong sales of Red Faction: Guerrilla and UFC 2009, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey says that things are looking up for THQ.

“We are increasingly more optimistic on [THQ's] near term financial prospects as our focus shifts from near term liquidity concerns to their upcoming game pipeline where buzz is beginning to build,” he said.

“Management continues to rebuild credibility through execution on planned cost cutting, increased financial transparency and recent / upcoming product releases including UFC 2009: Undisputed that meaningfully exceeded our initial expectations.”

Hickey figures that Marvel Super Hero Squad and MX vs. ATV Reflex will sell over 1 million units and Darksiders  will move  1.575 million.

Fiscal year 2011′s Homefront, Warhammer 40K: Space Marines, and a possible Saints Row 3 should help get the company back in the mix, and he estimates that Q1 2010 revenues will hit $219 million.

More on Gamasutra.

Janco’s Mike Hickey has predicted that The Sims 3 could sell up to 4 million units in 2009.

Sims 2 sold an estimated 3.5 units in calendar 2004. Sims 3 releases in June.

Hickey also said he expects the upcoming Harry Potter game to sell about 3.2 million units sold-in.

More on Gama.

Janco’s Mike Hickey’s prediction that a Blu-ray-less PS3 may be in the works suffered something of a blow today when Sony, unsurprisingly, said that there isn’t.

“That would pretty much destroy the PS3′s backbone,” Sony marketing manager Kim Nguyen told SAI.

“Our games were built on Blu-ray. Quote that: Blu-ray will always be part of PS3.”

Hickey also said he expected a PS3 price cut to be announced within days, in a note at the end of February.

Still waiting, Mike.

Janco’s Mike Hickey has told the LA Business Journal that THQ has a 50-50 chance of going bankrupt, based on “mediocre product”.

THQ recently announced 600 lay-offs in an effort to trim costs after dropping nearly $200 million in ’08′s final quarter.

CEO Brian Farrell has shrugged off Hickey’s opinion. From the piece:

“You have mediocre product and you’re running out of cash,” said Michael Hickey, an analyst with Janco Partners Inc. in Denver, who put the odds of THQ going bankrupt at 50-50. “Not the situation they want to be in right now.”

THQ executives are scrambling. Chief Executive Brian Farrell last month launched an aggressive turnaround plan, slashing costs for next year by $220 million and laying off almost 600 employees.

Farrell dismissed talk of takeovers and bankruptcy as gossip.

“I know that makes for good print and sells newspapers, but those aren’t the kind of things we focus on right now,” Farrell told the Business Journal. “When the stock price is depressed, the naysayers can have their day in the sunshine. But we have a plan that we’re very confident will give us cash and return the company to profitability.”

Plenty more through there.

Janco’s Mike Hickey has speculated that Sony may be on the verge of announcing a hefty PS3 price cut.

“Recent channel checks indicate increased speculation for a PS3 price cut announcement from Sony in the next couple of days,” said the analyst.

“We think the company needs to reduce the current price by USD 100 to effectively restart unit velocity at retail. We believe the market is expecting a PS3 price cut in April or by June at the latest.”

Fingers crossed. We’re checking with Sony now.

Janco Mike Hickey has forecasted that US video game sales will reach $20 billion in 2009, growing 6.7 percent over 2008′s $18.8 billion.

The figure is minus accessories.

“We continue to believe video games offer an exceedingly strong value proposition for consumers in the current economic malaise, and should continue to over index other forms of entertainment,” said the analyst.

Software sales will account for $12.6 billion of the figure, said Hickey, up 15.3 percent over $10.96 billion in 2008.

More on Gamasutra.

Janco’s Mike Hickey has predicted that WoW expansion Wrath of the Lich King will sell through around 5 million copies in its opening month.

The add-on goes on sale next week.

“We expect the upcoming release of WoW’s expansion pack… would yield a sell-through of roughly 5 million units in the first month,” he said, as reported by Gamasutra.

“We believe current product sales performance and pre-order activity at key retailers like GameStop has likely illuminated sufficient predictability to the ultimate performance from key game releases to maintain performance projections and articulated conviction,” he added, talking of other Activision big shots such as Guitar Hero World Tour.

The analyst was also “impressed,” he said, at the increase in WoW’s subs based to 11 million users amid economic anxieties and two recent major releases, Age of Conan and Warhammer Online, neither of which have appeared to slow the game’s momentum.

More through there.

Speaking to The Deal, Janco’s Mike Hickey has predicted that Activision Blizzard will take a look at buying Take-Two, for no better reason that to piss EA off.

“We absolutely believe Activision will take a look at Take-Two,” said the analyst. “If a competitor is for sale, you take a look, and if EA is your real rival, why wouldn’t you stir the pot a little bit?”

UBS’ Ben Schachter, however, isn’t so sure anything could ever happen between Acti-Blizz and the GTA-owner.

“It is highly unlikely that Activision would try to outbid EA,” Schachter said. “They have enough on their plate at the moment.”

More through there.