Will the xbox next be dead on arrival?

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Will the xbox next be dead on arrival?

(23 posts)

Started 3 months ago by Telepathic.Geometry
Latest reply from Telepathic.Geometry

Telepathic.Geometry
Member

Sorry for the deliberately provocative title, but I was just thinking about all the 360 games I really wanna play, (as I only have a Wii and a PS3), and it occurred to me that I can get most if not all of them on PC.

The next xbox will by all accounts be saddled with Kinect, a feature that not many people care enough to shell out for, and virtually all of the games on there will be available on PC or on Steam or whatever... How will they distinguish themselves?

Live is a pretty good service from what I've heard, but I don't think that it's enough to justify the existence of the console, especially if the Steambox becomes a reality.

The only thing that PS4 will have going for it will be exclusives and maybe a novel controller. Maybe that'll be enough, and maybe not, but factoring Steambox and PC gaming into the picture, xbox doesn't even have exclusives really. Doesn't anybody think this is a big problem for MS?

(I'm console agnostic, and owned and enjoyed a 360 once upon a time, so please don't take this as an attack on xbox. I'm just a dude who likes gaming wondering what'll happen to one of the big three, and wondering who "The Big Three" will be in 5 years...)

Posted 3 months ago #
Dragon246
Member

We can just wait for a year to find out cant we? :D

Posted 3 months ago #
Telepathic.Geometry
Member

Are you suggesting that we shouldn't discuss it?

Posted 3 months ago #
Ireland Michael
Moderator

The fact that people should have to so defensely explain their choice of console so as not to be lynched and verbally insulted by members of the site is a pretty sad sign of the state of the community here.

Anyway, it will likely start off as most generations do. A bunch of small exclusives titlles will come out at launch, which will attract some strong numbers of early adopters. This will be followed by months of people saying the console is dead due to the slow traction that every new console has, until some genuine new titles, that begin to take genuine advantage of the more powerful hardware, start to be released. Sales with increase. About two / three years in, most of us will have already relocated our obsolete "last gen" consoles to the closet, and everyone will be too busy bitching about whether it or the PS4 or the Wii U are better consoles to even remember them.

It will probably lack in decent exclusives beyond the initial launch period, because Microsoft suck at that kind of thing, but I expect the online, downloadable offerings will still be as solid as ever, and the infrastructure of the online service will be far and above the competitions... but likely at the expense of publishers and developers having to fork out ridiculous sums of cash for the priviledge of being on it.

So pretty much the same as the current generation.

The PC will sit quietly in its own little corner, slowly innovating away and itterating. It will continue to be a large "niche", as it always has been, and people will continue to prattle on about how the format is dying simply because they can't afford a decent rig, despite it consistently being the source of some of the industry's biggest cash cows.

Posted 3 months ago #
Telepathic.Geometry
Member

@Michael: But don't you think that PC gaming is going to break into mass market soon? I mean tablets are getting so much more powerful and ubiquitous, and the Steambox could - in the long-run - fill the gap that console gaming has for so long...

I dunno, I feel like the gaming industry is in for HUGE changes in 2014 or thereabouts...

Posted 3 months ago #
Dragon246
Member

@TG,
Oh no, but someone will again forget that we are discussing companies and not personally attacking others.

As for me, I don't think it will be dead, but the "winner" will pretty much be decided in first year. PS can regain its pole position if ps4 is priced exactly as 720, and more focused on hardware muscle than kinect like features. Since all signs are pointing to that, ms will definitely have stronger competition next-gen.
As for wiiu, I don't know. It definitely wont significantly impact ps4 and 720 as ninty consoles are generally for exclusives and most ninty owners have another consoles.
As for steambox, its difficult to mass produce a successful hardware. I dont think Valve is big enough to do that. Remember, ms spent double the total worth of valve right now just to get xbox running, and wasn't very successful too.

Posted 3 months ago #
Ireland Michael
Moderator

I don't understand why anyone would be under the assumption that the PC isn't already mass market. It has tonnes of core titles and a buttloads of exclusives, and many of them are raking in millions if not billions in revenue - World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Minecraft, etc.

The PC doesn't need it's bridge gapped. It's a bit like Iceland, really. Off in its own little corner, but doing perfectly fine for itself while the rest of the industry is imploding all over the place.

The Steam Box will be a nice idea with some decent backing, but I don't believe it will change anything in any huge way. I think tablets will continue to grow as a convenience item for media consumption, but not as any sort of dedicated gaming platform.

Posted 3 months ago #
Vice
Member

I'm thinking about same thing alot recently. I just wonder how are they going to make me buy their overpriced console with insanely expensive games, when I can just get by far most of it on my PC and the only thing that will allow or not allow me to get it for free is my own conscience, which I have absolute control of.
Kinect? Don't give a damn about this kiddie toy. Live? Not interested at all. I like single player games, I hate playing with people. So what they gonna do? How they gonna make me waste so much money on barely couple (at best) exclusive games with, yet again as usual, barely 5 hours single player content and rest wasted on multiplayer I'm not even gonna touch?
I don't know. I don't think they can.

Btw same goes to next playstation. They also have nothing of interest. Xbox at least has Halo and Gears of War, both series I love very much, especially Halo. Ps has what? Uncharted? God of War? HAH!

Posted 3 months ago #
Ireland Michael
Moderator

@Vice You'll do what most people do and wait two or three years until it actually has a decent lineup of titles and has been reduced to a genuinely affordable price.

What runs games on PC now will be outdated in two years. What then? Upgrade your PC constantly, or stick to a new fixed format? Most will pick the latter, once it's had some time to settle in and the old hardware has become obsolete.

Posted 3 months ago #
Telepathic.Geometry
Member

It's funny, I could never understand how so many people stayed playing their PS2s well into the PS3 life-cycle, but now I get it. I can easily see myself continuing to play my PS3 and Wii deep into 2014 or maybe even 2015. I have such a dearth of unfinished games on there, and they're such high quality, I'll need a compelling reason to move me on to the next gen...

Posted 3 months ago #
DrDamn
Member

It's going to be interesting. After the initial splurge of the early adopters which will give all platforms a decent enough start the consoles will then battle it out based on services.

Online MS have the infrastructure, knowledge and experience. I can't see anyone going better on that side. Sony I think will come up with some interesting extensions of the PS+ service - possibly using GaiKai to get around the tricky issue of backwards compatibility.

Steambox Dragon makes a good point on, are Valve really going to be able to manufacture and support a standard Linux based box for the masses? It's a grand idea, but I'm not sure it will fly. You also have to ask what will attract the masses? The consoles have big exclusives with broad appeal to bring people in, and whilst the PC games scene is thriving does it have that broad appeal? Will the majority of people these games appeal to simply stick with a more regular PC? Is the SteamBox going to be simple enough for the masses too?

Then we have the possibility of another player entering the arena. Apple - maybe even Samsung?

I'm normally Mr. Early Adopter, I got a 360, PS3, Wii, Wii-U, 3DS and Vita more or less on launch. For the 720/PS4/SteamBox face off I'm thinking one or at a push two will do me and only one in 2013 early 2014. I'll base my decision on services and cost.

Posted 3 months ago #
OlderGamer
Moderator

I just upgraded my PC. So, I am pretty much playing Next Gen level games right now. The only thing I am really looking at with next gen consoles is the games themself.

What changes?

My guess is that Mike is prolly right with a lot of that above.

But I would like to add that I don't think anything changes. I doubt we are looking at many exclusives or even new IP. I bet when transitioning a couple companies will see an opertunity to bring new IP(like UBI with ZombiU), but most will just bring their estanblished franchises(like Actis CoD and EAs sports). I think less risks by the established pubs.

Where I hope to see at least something is in the possibility of indie and digital only titles. But alot of that stuff is also going to be on Steam.

After playing WiiU, I changed my list of important things. I don't need high end graphics. The truth is the graphics we have now are nice enough. Plus my PC will still be the graphics king. But I am telling you, for me(and for most of us) graphics shouldn't be the primary thing.

How will the games play? What will the game experience be like? What can I do with this game?

I do not like Kinect, mostly because it just doesn't work as acuratly as it should. And the game selection is pretty unappealing. I don't like Move. And I don't like Wii Motes. What I do like, alot is the WiiU GamePad. It changes the way I play in a meaningfull and worthy way.

MS nor Sony, at this point in time seem to have that type of thing lined up. And no Smart Glass and Vita are not the same thing, any one but a fanboy should be able to see that.

I don't think MS will fail. Honestly I think MS will outsell both Sony and Nintendo.

The truth is...I just don't care anymore.

I am a PC gamer. Consoles are just something I tinker with here and there. Nice they are, for same room couch coop. And the unique gameplay experience that they can sometimes offer.

Posted 3 months ago #
DrDamn
Member

@OG
"MS nor Sony, at this point in time seem to have that type of thing lined up."

Seems MS are persisting with Kinect but Sony are going for an evolved controller of some sort. Based on descriptions this will at least have a touch pad, though without a screen I'm not sure on the full use. It could be used like a decent laptop touchpad/apple magic pad.

Posted 3 months ago #
Dragon246
Member

Console gaming has persisted almost as long as pc gaming, its absurd imo to suggest anyone of them will cannibalize other.

Posted 3 months ago #
Anonymous
Unregistered

of course.....Not. Don't be silly once they announce it people including me will get a raging hard one. But T.G. you're pretty much right. They need exclusive power titles beyond Halo,Forza,and Fable. SONY and Nintendo already have strong alternatives to those games. The trick with next gen is they have to compete with phones and tablets because in a few years time they'll be more powerful than the next gen eventually and people are heavily swaying to phones and tablets for games.

Eventually even Nintendo will start to have a problem selling a new gameboy next to the smartphone market. I saw three little kids yesterday (7-9) in the supermarket playing games on a phone rather than a DS. Its so uncertain whats going to happen that I'm actually worried for the next gen.

Posted 3 months ago #
stretch215
Member

No way. I'm trying to figure out if you're serious. Edit: I don't think it's about exclusives. I think most console gamers have zero interest in pc gaming. I don't know a single person (not already on pc) that would even think about it.

Posted 3 months ago #
daytripper
Member

Based on rumours, the next Playstation seems more appealing at the moment than Xbox, it seems Microsoft are trying to get the right balance in strategy for media, family games and more of the Halos etc in the one box while Playstation 4 seems to be a bit more controller based game centric first and media/app box second but of course this is all based on rumours.

I had a interesting chat with SuperDae who was the guy with the supposed Durango dev kit, he was saying the tools for MS's machine are great, he didn't seem to rate the next Playstation much, I am not convinced by him to be honest. Bring on E3

Posted 3 months ago #
monkeygourmet
Member

The way I see it are MS are ready to try and do what Sony did with DVD (PS2) and Bluray (PS3), but from a streaming perspective.

I think the Xbox was always intended to be a media box and I think next gen we will really see that come together.

They have almost exclusivley focussed on this area the last few years of the 360 life span at the expense of adding exclusive titles or securing new franchises.

For better or worse, they have saved a lot of cash by taking this stance (not great for the gamer obviously).

Now, to me that means on of 2 things:

1. MS have got to a point they don't care so much for new franchises aslong as they have games like COD with timed exclusive deals.

2. They have new IP's but are saving them for 720.

I think it's maybe a bit of both. I think MS has bargined a lot on trying to control your media, either thay have timed it just right or it may come back to bite them.

If this is the main focus, I think they have done a pretty good job of building infrastructure and not completly ignoring Kinect like Sony have done with move.

I think as much as I hate it, Kinect will be loved by the advertising companies, especially if it's linked into the media features of Next Box and Smartglass.

Now, wether gamers like the sound of this or not, you have to remember, we are not the core demographic anymore from a marketting perspective.

At home, i'm currently using an XBMC media PC linked up wirelessly linked to my iPad. It is a a perfect media streaming device, basically doing what Smartglass and next box is hoping to do.

If this gets into the mainstream, MS will kill next gen as it's such a nice way to use and organise media. It provides film posters, links to actor's info, trailers, youtube. It really ties it altogether.

Unfortunatly, games don't really focus in that approach so maybe Sony and Nintendo can clean up there.

Question is, will it be too late? Has the landscape changed too much for Uncharted 4 etc to be relevant or be so popular it carries the brand on it's own.

Im not sure about this, Sony clearly has the most exclusives in the last 2 years, but is it absolutly killing the competition? The answer is no.

Saying this, im sure Sony are looking into an all in one media solution, and various patents and leaks suggest they are just as happy seeking advertising and other forms of revenue, again, it's business.

The question is, have they been focussing on games and exclusives (sounds crazy to be saying this as it's great for gamers), over building a very strong online and media infrastructure?

I think Miiverse is incredibly clever as I noticed the other day, by posting certain things on Miiverse or drawing pictures, im effectivaly doing 'free' advertising for Nintendo! ;)

It's very subliminal but advertising none the less. Once Miiverse is linked in with youtube etc... I think it'll maybe strike the best balance of corperate advertising and personnal contributions.

Genius really...

If for example Sony and MS both go balls in with their own all in one package (which one can only assume they will), Nintendo again is left nicely in the open with a cheap console while offering great selling exclusives. Again, they may come off better by not taking part in a battle they can not win.

This leaves Sony and MS to battle it out for your living room and only one can come out on top in that respect. At the moment, i'm inclined to go with MS over Sony based on how hard it's tried to tie in:

Kinect 2
Smartglass
Windows Phone / Tablets
Streaming tech
Subscriptions based business models

Mind you, I haven't factored Apple or Steam into this, although I would think they would again prove difficult times by splitting the market!

Fun times are ahead, may well just stick with Wii U! ;)

Posted 3 months ago #
hives
Member

I only know that I will buy one of next-gen consoles when first big exclusive will debut. I guess it will be next Xbox with Halo 5... Cause I'm also looking at the multiplayer. Actually, Halo multiplayer is the only multiplayer I enjoyed on consoles, even though I really like PS3 and it's exclusives and overall I play on PC most of the time.

BTW, do you really think that next-gens will be overpriced and games will be much more expensive? Because I don't think so. Maybe prices of games will increase about 5-10$.

Posted 3 months ago #
fearmonkey
Member

I have always bought one console at launch per generation since the Playstation. This time may be different however. I find I love Steam and getting games for a decent price and then playing that. I have a nice library of games that look amazing on the PC on my 1440p monitor and I barely touch my Xbox anymore.

It really depends on features, performance ability, launch titles, and how much its dependent on gadgets. If I get a launch title that just wows and amazes me then I may get an Xbox at launch. If its pretty much a gadget fest, I might wait awhile. If its launch titles are uninspiring then I will doubtfully get one until something decent comes along.

I figure that Fable 4 will be a launch title, and if its spectacular, I may have to get it since I love the series. Besides a possible Killer Instinct, I cant think of anything other than Watch Dogs that might wow me.

I guess I am mostly excited about how the new performance enhancements will trickle to PC games, as every game will be Directx11 finally, use more tesselation, etc, etc. Then I can pick up those games for PC on Steam on a sale and have a great next gen time.

I havent owned a Sony console since the original playstation, and I am more curious about their console than the next xbox. MS is copying Nintendo with a tablet controller and Will have Kinect 2 in a box, that just doest really interest me that much at the moment. They will have to prove to me why that is so awesome. If I wanted a tablet controller id buy a Wiiu.

Posted 3 months ago #
Anonymous
Unregistered

2. "They have new IP's but are saving them for 720".

This is probably 100% true and I have a feeling they're going to be clones of everything SONY has but more edgy with Kinect features built in some way or form. It will be interesting next gen for sure.

The anticipation is becoming depressing to be honest. I'm looking forward to next gen but I also see all the negativity that will come with it.

Posted 3 months ago #
hives
Member

And I was also wondering about online play... Do you guys think that Microsoft will take paid multiplayer away on their next-gen console? I think they will do something similiar to current PlayStation Plus, but access to demos and playing online will be free...

...or I just hope so :P

Posted 3 months ago #
Telepathic.Geometry
Member

Well, all the gaming press are saying that this next gen will be all about services, so I guess it's possible that MS might take a bit of a hit on online services prices in order to snag the customers. They already have the best service in that regard, so if they made it cheaper, they'd have a strong selling point...

Posted 3 months ago #

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