PS4 sales to hit 49 million sales by end of 2017, Xbox One at 38 million, says analyst firm

Tuesday, 12 November 2013 13:03 GMT By Dave Cook

Sony will sell 49 million PlayStation 4 consoles worldwide in the next five years, trumping Microsoft’s predicted 38 million Xbox One consoles. That’s the prediction of analyst firm IHS.

In a press release sent to VG247 today, analyst firm IHS stated that Microsoft has the bigger community and install base towards the end of the Xbox 360’s life-span, and added, “The installed base of Xbox 360 users is significantly bigger than the original Xbox generation and this factor alone means IHS expects significantly stronger launch sales for Xbox One compared to the last generation. In 2005, Xbox 360 launched at the end of the year with sales of 1.2 million.”

The firm also reckons that it’ll be harder to persuade gamers to switch formats in the next generation, and predicted there to be, “only be a small amount of defections between Sony and Microsoft, ” and in terms of, “assessing geographical performance we believe history is a strong indicator of forward adoption.”

So what that means from IHS’s point of view is that PS4 will perform stronger than Xbox One in Europe, the UK and Japan, while Microsoft will continue its dominance in the US.

IHS continued, praising Sony’s competitive PS4 pricing, and conceded that Japan’s “obsession with handheld consoles,” could be a factor in Sony’s decision to move the console’s Japanese launch to 2014.

Addressing the marketing strategies of both sides, the report added, “Sony’s PS4 positioning since its announcement has been heavily centred on the gamer, while Microsoft has attempted to implement a mixed and broader entertainment and gaming message.

“This different approach will influence the choice of some early adopters. The strength of exclusives will also be key to consumer adoption; at this time IHS believes that Xbox One’s exclusives are more formidable for a wider set of gamers, especially in the opening launch period.”

Based on the above and a myriad of other factors, IHS concluded that Sony will shift 2.4 million PS4 units by the end of 2013, and that Microsoft will hit 2.2 million Xbox One consoles.

The firm’s five-year projection places global PS4 sales at 49 million, and Xbox One at 38 million. It concluded, “IHS believes that Sony’s wider geographical brand allegiance – especially across continental Europe and Japan – will be decisive in allowing PS4 to outsell Xbox One on a global basis by the end of 2017.

“We also believe that both Sony and Microsoft will continue to benefit from Nintendo’s Wii U weak sales, with some past Wii users adopting the latest consoles instead of upgrading to Wii U. IHS forecasts that Sony will sell-through 49 million PS4 consoles by the end of 2017, with Microsoft managing a smaller, but significant, amount of 38 million Xbox One consoles in the same time frame.”

PS4 is out November 15 in the states and November 29 in the UK/Europe.

Xbox One is out November 22 in several territories.