Analyst: “it’s too early to predict” whether Xbox One or PS4 will have the biggest market share

Tuesday, 21 May 2013 19:38 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Jesse Divnich, industry analyst for EEDAR has weighed in on Xbox One’s reveal by providing his thought on the new console in an industry letter.

A look at Xbox One

Speaking in his note, Divnich called Xbox One an “evolutionary step in the entertainment consumption experience,” citing Microsoft’s constant battle of late for control of the living room space, and calling the firm’s commitments to first-party content “important”.

“Microsoft has proven they’ve seen eye-to-eye with how their audience consumes entertainment content,” said Divnich. “The Xbox One stands to provide the total living room experience for the entire family, while at the same time not alienating the core gaming consumer or the core gaming experience. It’s an impressive leap forward and one that will resonate well with the North American audience.

“Our communication with Microsoft has indicated that they plan on investing more resources into first-party content than they’ve ever had before. This is important. It’s clear that Microsoft is trying to deliver the total entertainment experience to consumers across all demographics and all entertainment verticals, but it’s important that Microsoft not forget the core gaming consumer.

“Microsoft’s dedication to continue to support those core gamers with exclusive new intellectual properties is a reassurance to all us gamers that the company comprehends the important role we play in driving the Xbox One’s success.”

EEDAR is “most impressed with the Xbox One ability to integrate the television cable experience into the console,” said Divnich, stating that the firm didn’t notice any lag between communication using Xbox One, cable boxes, and the television.

The industry firm said it is “specifically excited about the application market” that could boom from this integration as it would be available to “integrate custom applications, social communication overlays, and an overall sense of providing a personal experience.”

“While Microsoft is still building their install base on their own second screen devices, the fact that they haven’t ignored the popularity of the Android and iOS is a clear sign that Microsoft “gets” the consumer and their openness to work on other non-Microsoft devices is a humbling,” Divnish added regarding apps and the firm’s use of a second screen via SmartGlass.

According to Divnich, the firm has been “skeptical” of Kinect or any motion control device when it comes to driving long-term usage. Calling the peripherals “fads”, the analyst said his opinion on the tech has changed, at least with Kinect and how it integrates with Xbox One.

“The inclusion of the Kinect into every Xbox One platform as a positive, even if not all consumer utilize it,” he said. “We were impressed with the Kinect’s upgrades and its ability to quickly identify people and link them to their online profiles. For less tech-savvy consumers, this helps remove friction barriers.

“The Kinect’s upgrades are as expected.Better facial recognition, a wider view, and digit identification is what we would expect from a next-generation Kinect. How developers chose to integrate this into the gaming experience will be the ultimate determination of the Kinect’s role in the gaming experience. For casual gaming experience, we continue to expect large usage rates.”

Microsoft vs. Sony in the 2013 launch

EEDAR expects Xbox One and PS4 to “launch relatively close to each other,” around holiday 2013, which is a win-win for the industry as a whole, and the launch timing relatively close to each other will “provide a benefit to the overall traditional home come market.:”

“The two marketing campaigns combined will act as an amplifier to why traditional home gaming is still relevant and an overall deeper immersive experience compared to other gaming technologies,” said Divnich. “While the market has witnessed some stumbling in the traditional space over the last 12 months, we believe confidence in traditional HD gaming will rise to pre-2010 hypes coming out of the 2013 holiday season.”

As far as who will win and who will lose the console race was concerned, Divnich said it was too close to call at the moment, especially considering all that has been shown are “highly choreographed presentations.”

“It is too close of a call to say one presentation was better than the other, but from EEDAR’s view point, both were successful in demonstrating their platform’s core experience and we believe that both Microsoft and Sony will realize market success at launch and through 2017,” he said.

“It’s too early to predict who will have a larger market share, but we are confident in saying that both will be profitable and viable platforms for third-party developers.”

Xbox One was announced earlier today and you can get caught up on everything in this one handy post.

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