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Pachter picks Microsoft to win next console generation

Sunday, 10th March 2013 22:52 GMT By Brenna Hillier

In a presentation at SXSW this weekend, industry analyst Michael Pachter gave his forecast for the next generation, picking Microsoft as a big winner; proving optimistic on Sony’s behalf; and expressing doubst about Nintendo.

In a slide shared by Geoff Keighley, Pachter summarised his thoughts. Although Microsoft is yet to reveal its Xbox 360 successor, codenamed Durango, the analyst believes a couple of unconfirmed features will keep it at the top of the US console market.

“Microsoft wins the next generation. The TV tuner and Skype are killer apps,” he said.

Meanwhile, the PlayStation 4 will do quite well, Pachter said, but Nintendo’s on shakier ground.

“Sony thrives in the next generation. Still playing catch-up, but Gaikai and content are huge advantages,” he said.

“Nintendo software still king but console hardware sales will be challenged. Handheld hardware sales will lose share to smartphones and tablets.”

Pachter said we’re unlikely to see any more publisher bankruptcies in the coming generation, but some companies may consolidate.

“The PC as gaming device will make a comeback”, he added, which, given the upcoming launch of the first Steam box as well as the growing market for hardcore and indie games, seems pretty likely.

Thanks, woe.

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59 Comments

  1. HZSA

    Pachter is an idiot!

    #1 2 years ago
  2. sg1974

    Can you add “in the US” to that title. Just so, you know, it’s accurate.

    #2 2 years ago
  3. a7md1990

    If Microsoft wins next gen war.. I’ll cut my balls off and send them to your mail box. Address please.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. xXBraveShadowXx

    Really? Skype is a killer app? LOL TV Tuner? That’s sad. I guess if this is true Xbox Gamers aren’t really gamers if they buy a console for those “Killer Apps” LOL

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Jerykk

    I’m pretty sure PC already made a comeback this generation, thanks to the rise of digital distribution.

    #5 2 years ago
  6. Rafa_L

    I don’t get all the hate for Pachter. He’s arrogant and sometimes not likeable as a person, but I think professionally he’s mostly right, and even when wrong, I take it as mistakes with basis.

    I wouldn’t say I’m a fanboy, but I only own a PS3 and I’ve never regretted it for a second since purchase, I hope the best for PS4 and will stick to sony next generation.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. gomersoul

    what makes this guy any more qualified to analyse the industry better then any of us? even if he’s right about m$ winning, tv tuner and Skype will not win the next console war, GAMES will!

    #7 2 years ago
  8. Samuel

    Regardless it seems silly to make such a proclamation before Microsoft has even unveiled their console.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Fin

    This all sounds about right.

    Y’all are looking at it from a GAMER perspective. From the mainstream (ie where the money is), skype and a tv tuner are killer features.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. manamana

    Pachter predicts that this thread is going over 150.

    #10 2 years ago
  11. Hybridpsycho

    @6
    “professionally he’s mostly right”

    Are you kidding me? Pretty much everything he says is bullshit and complete guess work. He’s getting payed to “analyze” yet he’s just talking out of his ass.

    Quotes like “All future consoles will be portable” (ofc the definition of portable decides that one) really makes him come off like a complete idiot.

    I’ve seen this guys quotes everywhere over the past 5-6 years and they’re pretty much all stupid, apart from some obvious stuff that any kid who’s just picked up a 360 controller and played Call of Duty could figure out.

    The fact that he calls out the “winner” before any REAL information about the new Xbox has even been announced shows how dumb he is. It’s like people rating games before they are released (but worse!).

    @9 Just as much bullshit as Pachter. How is the money where skype and TV tuner are? It’s a GAMING console, no one will buy the new Xbox for skype just as no one would buy the PS3 just to play Blu-ray discs.

    I could ramble on forever about how wrong this guy is about almost everything (of course he gets a guess right now and then, nothing that me or you couldn’t do). But I’ll just end it by saying this one more time.

    Pachter is a jackass and you shouldn never take anything he says seriously.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. noamlol2

    skype is pretty awesome sure, but the company who delivers the GAMING expeirnce will win

    i never bought a console just to play netflix
    i bought a console to play and that’s that

    #12 2 years ago
  13. Erthazus

    Skype is actually a killer app. It is much better then Xbox Live Voice shit or PSN garbage.

    Skype is a really big deal. On the PC’s side I play with Skype with my friends and I have a TON of choice like RaidCall or Ventrillo or TeamSpeak 1,2,3.

    but TV tunner is shitty feature. I had that on the PC since 2001. TV Tunner was in my PC. Retarded feature that I never used.

    In my opinion the one who will win console war will have better games. That’s it.

    #13 2 years ago
  14. Christopher Jack

    @11, I know many who did buy the PS3 as a blu ray player with little or no intention to play games.

    It will still depend on how MS will implement Skype into XBL & if the past is any guess, they won’t be able to combine their existing services greatly enough to save their own lives.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. Mr Sparkle

    How that guy’s ass must be sore as he keeps pulling things out of it.

    #15 2 years ago
  16. Hybridpsycho

    @13

    Been using skype for about 6-8 years (can’t really remember when I first started using it).

    Skype SUCKS. Only this year did I finally find a replacement for it. Dolby Axon, the only part that is any worse than skype is the normal chat function. Which I just don’t give a rats ass about.

    Best voice software ever, no matter if you’re a guild in WoW, just a few friends playing a game, having a voice-conference.

    It’s is THE best, crisp-clear quality means no more stupid fucking noise all the time.

    Am I happy that I rarely ever use skype anymore? Yes.

    I just wish some of my conservative friends would swap over to Axon.

    #16 2 years ago
  17. mkotechno

    A TV tuner in the generation of Netflix and IP delivered media, Skype app fixed in a living room when everybody has a Skype compatible smartphone in the pocket…

    Yeah, killers apps… killing MS business.

    #17 2 years ago
  18. Francis O

    LOL! A Console that won’t even sell in Japan will win the console race!? LOLOLOLOLLLLLL!

    WHAT A FUCKING IDIOT! Unless he means America only.

    #18 2 years ago
  19. Kabby

    Sony has already won.

    #19 2 years ago
  20. ps3fanboy

    …and all the dumb fat american swallowed up this news as candy on a stick. in the rest of the world that is bigger than the u.s. fucking a. the playstation are the winner.

    #20 2 years ago
  21. woe

    @Francis Even without Japan the 360 still leads over the PS3 Worldwide.

    #21 2 years ago
  22. salarta

    Pfft haha.

    If Pachter is basing his remarks on the TV tuner and Skype primarily, then his assessment is dead wrong. Neither the average person nor hardcore gamers are going nuts over TV tuners, and Skype is largely seen as a mix of office and personal/webcam use, not something you pull into the living room for entertainment purposes.

    Unless Microsoft has some other features on the horizon set to blow people away, or there’s a significant price difference between the PS4 and XBox 720, Sony is going to win the next generation.

    #22 2 years ago
  23. Francis O

    @21 Woe

    There actually about even. And Micorsoft’s worldwide numbers are skewed. Many of those sales are the same people buying the Xbox 360 because of the RROD. I’ve bought 3 myself. But I’ll be skipping out on the Xbox 720. PS4, Wii U, and PC for me.

    #23 2 years ago
  24. G1GAHURTZ

    This guy is nothing more than a professional troll.

    Seriously!? Microsoft wins, and they haven’t unveiled a single thing!?

    Skype!!? A killer app!!?

    It’s time to put this clown in the bin, right next to Jack Thompson.

    #24 2 years ago
  25. xxJPRACERxx

    Why would I need a TV tuner? I already have IPTV with a DVR…

    Skype… meh…

    PC will do a comeback? Stupid fucker, it’s easy saying that when the PC already started the comeback last year…

    So far for me it’s PC and PS4. Still can’t wait to see what GAMES MS have in store for Durango.

    #25 2 years ago
  26. Joe_Gamer

    Pachter gives advice that benefits him and his clients financially, he neither understands gaming nor cares about gaming. In short…fuck Pachter

    #26 2 years ago
  27. Digital Bamboo

    Pachter is often wrong, but he’s not stupid. The man is highly educated, and more likely deliberately manipulating gaming news for his own gain than simply pulling things out of his ass. Well, maybe he is still pulling things out of his ass, but he’s doing it for a very specific reason, to attain a certain result.

    I truly respect VG24/7 & it’s staff, but I’d respect it even more if they stopped printing stories based on anything that comes out of Pachter’s various holes.

    #27 2 years ago
  28. Clupula

    And Borderlands is being sent out to die…

    #28 2 years ago
  29. NightCrawler1970

    WHAHAHAHAHAHAHA what a joke… let’s see what happens, Sony didn’t reveal the console yet, just the controlers…

    All i can say is Microsoft is very good in copying stuff that other console had….

    #29 2 years ago
  30. Da Man

    Pachter also predicted many angry, passionate essays and one-liners from socially isolated people.

    #30 2 years ago
  31. Shuklar

    This guy makes weather men look good.

    #31 2 years ago
  32. Lengendaryboss

    Oh thank god i needed a laugh :) after hearing what this guy think are killer apps. Winning next gen with the focus of Entertainment rather than gaming if microsoft do win next gen i would be shocked. This gen has shown many things Sony rules EU, Microsoft rule US and Both Nintendo and Sony share massive appeal in JP while microsoft ceases to exist. Is having a strangehold on the US really proves who wins next gen and i can see why Sony is focusing on US.

    #32 2 years ago
  33. Dragon246

    This story has a fair bit missing. Here are some slides from that same event/show/whatever-
    http://i.imgur.com/1TUeJgy.jpg
    http://i.imgur.com/F25tZ93.jpg

    He expects BOTH SONY AND MS to sell 85-95 million consoles LT . So I wonder in which department MS “wins” then.
    And he expects WiiU to sell 30-50 million LT.

    Now the problem is that he also predicts “NEXT GEN IS LAST GEN” which is complete bollocks. Why would Sony and MS leave hardware biz if PS4 and 720 sells 95 million?

    But I agree, TV tuner can be a major game changer. It would be a glaring omission if PS4 doesn’t have it and 720 does, as it would truly make it an all-in-one device.

    #33 2 years ago
  34. gomersoul

    ps3 had playtv in the UK, not sure if US got the same but it was actually really good as a freeview recorder, Sony didn’t give it much support but I figured they were preparing to do a deal with Google tv or something… I’m sure they’ll make ps4 do everything but have the games as the main focus, which for me is an excellent decision that brings relief to us gamers.

    #34 2 years ago
  35. The_Red

    In the wake of SimCity debacle, I’m curious to see whether or not those “always-online” rumors about Xbox 720 turn out to be true. Without that, MS has a good chance to win via their focus on TV and non-gaming crap which sadly, many non-gamers will probably like. With the always online, we could see this type of disaster (SimCity’s launch) with every big new release. Imagine the launch of next Skyrim, Fallout, Tomb Raider, Batman Arkham and more on an always-online Xbox.

    #35 2 years ago
  36. DrDamn

    Been thinking about the TV Tuner thing. A lot of people will have PVR boxes, or actually focus on ondemand services (Netflix, LoveFilm, iPlayer etc). However, what if MS does a deal with Sky/Virgin in the UK and the big cable TV providers in the US. So that the next Sky+/V+ box you get from them is actually a NextBox? That would be pretty big wouldn’t it? Just become the de facto standard PVR box that service providers supply. That would get the boxes in a lot of homes.

    Bit pie in the sky, but it’s one way a “TV Tuner” would work in a more killer way. If I could get rid of my FreeSat PVR and replace it with a NextBox I’m much more likely to get one.

    There is a lot of TV tuner types out there to cover though – satellite, cable, aerial etc.

    #36 2 years ago
  37. Fin

    God ye really have no fucking clue do ye.

    The big money isn’t with core gamers. It’s getting people who’ve never bought a games console to buy one – with the PS3, it was BluRay (and later, Netflix). Same with the 360 (Kinect, Sky, Netflix).

    “Winning” the nextgen doesn’t mean “who will make the best games”, it means “who can convince the average consumer to buy their console”. With Skype and a TV tuner, people might see the 720 as a consumer box with some games built in. That’s why they’ve a good chance of winning.

    #37 2 years ago
  38. Samoan Spider

    ^ this. I’m clapping right now.

    #38 2 years ago
  39. orakaa

    Yeah… well, a TV Tuner or TV service could be successful… but probably ONLY in the US.
    I’ve yet to see Netflix (or a similar service) offered in Europe on Xbox or Playstation.

    Nowadays (at least here), if someone wants to have a video on demand service, they can get it either through Smart TV, or Internet service providers. It’s ALREADY there. Non-gamers won’t buy 300-400 dollars for a box “just” for this. And gamers won’t care much.

    When you see WiiU sales being lower than expected, you can see that “casual” gamers attachment rates are quite low and being driven towards tablets and smartphones. Microsoft seems to be “casualizing” their gaming brand even more than before, keeping its focus on Kinect, TV services, etc.
    It’s a risky strategy. A strategy that could not be followed by the public.

    In the end, the hardcore gamers are a lower target/public… but it’s a safer one, that puts a lot more money in games and services than casual market. This is why I think Sony could take the lead for next gen.
    Nintendo could change things as well when they release great first party titles… but they’ve already lost third party support (WiiU is definitely going down the Wii road regarding 3rd party support)

    #39 2 years ago
  40. Fin

    @39

    Both PS3 and 360 have a lot of video content providers in Europe (granted, my experience is just Ireland & UK) – iPlayer, RTE Player, Netflix, Lovefilm, NowTV, 4oD.

    I don’t know anyone with a TV that has Netflix built in – everyone who watches Netflix on TV watches it through a console.

    #40 2 years ago
  41. freedoms_stain

    @33, Sony did a TV Tuner for the PS3 as an external accessory, it didn’t do particularly well. On top of that, I don’t think many people are all that fucked about broadcast TV any more.

    Do you really want your gaming console recording OTA tv when you want to be gaming on it? Can it do both at once? How much slower does that make HD access for games? How much system resource has to be set aside for that possibility?

    #41 2 years ago
  42. Dragon246

    @freedom,
    I know. They still have it in Japan, even launched a new DVR version called Nasne previous year that works witha multitude of devices, including vita. And TV tuners are cheap.
    About me? I don’t give a DAMN about Netflix/Hulu/Amazon/HBO/TV Tuner Bullshit. I only use PS3 and Vita to play games, the reason I bought them.
    I was just talking about from a biz perspective. I like the way Sony is treating gamers first and foremost with PS4, and I certainly don’t want mediaboxes to overshadow “traditional” consoles.
    But it may happen. We need to see MS cards to get a clear picture. I am sure Pachter is just guess-working like we are doing here.

    #42 2 years ago
  43. DrDamn

    @41
    Well I presume yes, that’s the idea, it’ll do both at once. I think to be a global differentiator there is a lot of different systems, channels, options that this idea as we are thinking of it is going to be tricky. Maybe it’s something different?

    #43 2 years ago
  44. orakaa

    @40 : I should have been more precise, but when I was talking about Europe, I wasn’t including UK.
    Here in France, for instance, we have MUBI and… not much more actually (no Hulu, no Netflix, no Lovefilms, etc.). I love MUBI’s catalog… except that the one provided in France is utterly different from the US or UK ones (much poorer and most titles available are not interesting, at least not enough to justify a subscription).

    So, for us, Microsoft (or Sony)’s partnerships don’t mean much and are definitely not a game changer. People who were interested in those kind of services have either found alternatives elsewhere, or the services are not there yet because of licensing/publishing issues.

    Netflix and Lovefilms should be available for the rest of Europe this year (and it’s a good thing… if they keep the same catalog). But these offers will be available on many devices. You won’t mandatory need to buy the new Xbox to use these.

    #44 2 years ago
  45. G1GAHURTZ

    The Skype claim makes absolutely no sense, because you can get it for almost any platform, from a cheap smartphone, to a high end ultrabook.

    I have it on my mobile, my ipad, and 2 laptops, so why is someone going to spend $100s on a console for something that they probably already own, and is probably going to be in most smart TVs within a year or two, anyway?

    The TV tuner claim is just as poorly thought out.

    #45 2 years ago
  46. ysleiro

    I know us gamers buy these machines for games.

    However one has to keep in mind that the mainstream crowd can be swayed to purchase these machines by other things not just games.

    If you follow the source for this post (a screenshot) there is a bullet that is not mentioned in this post. Patcher believes that Skype and TV Tuner abilities lend themselves well to subsidization of the hardware by ISPs and MSOs. That could be significant when analyzing how many homes these devices could end up being in.

    #46 2 years ago
  47. Gheritt White

    @33: Next gen *is* the last gen. After that, AAA gaming will be delivered via the cloud.

    #47 2 years ago
  48. deathm00n

    @47 And in the future cars will fly. We all heard it before.

    #48 2 years ago
  49. fearmonkey

    How does a TV tuner help me if my cable provider doesn’t support it?
    Time Warner hasn’t been too agreeable so far regarding having their TV app on devices other than android or IOS or the Web, there is no PS3 or 360 app. Even then its their app, they control it and all the broadcasts. If MS could get all the major TV providers thats great, but only having some of them makes it kind of useless as a mass market thing. TW loves those rental fees, Im not sure they want to give those up.

    Having Skype access is a cool idea as then the console can be used for video conferencing with people outside of xbox, that is kind of a big deal. Its not however, something that I am personally clamoring for, but its nice.

    #49 2 years ago
  50. TD_Monstrous69

    OK, I’m with some of the people in this forum in saying I don’t get the flack Michael Pachter gets. He’s an analyst (and a good one at that), giving his predictions on the industry going into the next generation. Do I agree with his prediction on the next gen winner, no, I don’t. I think it’s too early to even predict the next-gen winner, considering Microsoft hasn’t even unveiled their new console yet, and the longer they take to do it, the more ground their competition gains, as they’re now driving the next-gen conversation going forward, until they finally choose to uncork the lid on their plans for the next generation (which it’d be a stupid idea for them to wait until E3 to unveil it).

    #50 2 years ago
  51. LordDjinn

    How did microsoft win this gen?? Because one, its not over yet, and two sony has more games and more consoles, so maybe im missing something.

    #51 1 year ago
  52. ChunkyLover112

    #51: How they won? Are you serious? How the fuck did they not win???

    #52 1 year ago
  53. LordDjinn

    @ChunkyLover112 well the reasons i just stated kinda says they didnt so that would be why im asking, how they won, and since its still this gen..

    #53 1 year ago
  54. Smart Apps

    Sony won this generation, and it looks like they are poised to win next generation. I haven’t met or heard of a single person who is moving from the PS3 to the Xbox One. But I have heard countless people (myself included) who are moving from Xbox 360 to the PS4. Its fine if Xbox wants to be an all in one device. But it looks like Sony is doing the same , with the added benefit of being a better gaming platform.

    #54 1 year ago
  55. Clupula

    Has Patcher ever rooted for anyone besides Microsoft?

    #55 1 year ago
  56. Clupula

    @51 – Don’t you know? America = the world.

    Microsoft won America, so people like ChunkyLover can completely pretend the rest of the planet doesn’t exist.

    Nevermind Sony’s Japanese and European sales. Nevermind how well the Wii sold.

    Microsoft are the kings of one territory, so obviously they won.

    #56 1 year ago
  57. Clupula

    Whoa! Didn’t realize this thread had been necroed.

    #57 1 year ago
  58. Dragon246

    @Clupula,
    Old thread btw :P

    #58 1 year ago
  59. Legion

    @LordDjinn & Clupula

    Old thread but still needs to be said. MS earned more profit off their Xbox 360 then Sony and PS3. Simple as that.

    #59 12 months ago

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