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PS4, 720: CES yields tech details, launch predictions

Monday, 14 January 2013 11:58 GMT By Patrick Garratt

Baird analyst Colin Sebastian, fresh from his round of CES meetings, has detailed features coming in the next console generation, and has regulated Nintendo to “niche” status for the coming round.

Speaking in an investor email today, the analyst said:

“E3 2013 will be the most important game conference since Y2K,” and that “we continue to expect both Sony and Microsoft to host dedicated events before E3 to announce their new platforms.”

He added: “New console hardware will borrow from high-end PC components, providing hybrid physical/digital distribution models, enhanced voice controls and motion sensing, broad multi-media capabilities and lower launch price points.”

It was rumoured this morning that next-gen machines will launch in the $400 region.

Sebastian said there could be “early production issues with Sony’s PS4, which, if accurate, could limit unit shipments or regions at launch.”

Nintendo he said, has now shifted “to niche category. Following a somewhat lackluster launch, Nintendo must bring to market major first-party releases and retain third-party support to limit market share losses.”

He also said that 2013 is the year Apple and Google take their mobile fight to the TV screen. Difficult financial conditions will affect the traditional market through the rest of this year, he added, but “we expect top-tier games to sell well (eg, GTA V, Call of Duty, Battlefield).”

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22 Comments

  1. burrsalem

    Probably meant “relegated” rather than “regulated” in the first paragraph. Just a heads up. :)

    #1 2 years ago
  2. Telepathic.Geometry

    This is gonna be a big year. We already know that we have two major hardware launches to be announced and detailed, one or two of them will probably happen around Thanksgiving or Christmas, and the Steambox details will gradually leak and give us a better idea of how much Linux development support Valve get from devs. Also, Apple are likely to do something with Apple TV and more tablet gaming…

    Exciting but also a little scary… You can be sure that even more devs and publishing houses will close doors. :(

    #2 2 years ago
  3. Erthazus

    Finally. New consoles, because old ones are absolutely shit in 2013 with their 2005 hardware limits and crappy visuals with 20 frames per second.
    Nothing to add.

    Next Gen starts right here.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. mistermogul

    tbh I think Nintendo have always been niche, nothing new there…

    #4 2 years ago
  5. monkeygourmet

    @3

    Which way you heading Erth..

    720 or PS4?

    You can’t be that excited surely,

    Your PC will still shit all over them?

    Or are you glad because you think PC games will start to look better?

    Answer me!!! :D

    #5 2 years ago
  6. Erthazus

    @5, which will have more exclusive games that I can’t get on my PC. That will be my console platform of choice.

    “Or are you glad because you think PC games will start to look better?”

    I’m glad that consoles will finally have decent Direct X11 visuals, with decent AA and other filters and stuff.
    More important here what games will be on the next gen systems.

    So far, I’m glad to see that PS3 and 360 era are over.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. bitsnark

    Man, I love this transitional period between cycles; all the guesswork and speculation on specs, games and so forth – it does a lot to get me excited for what is to come :)

    #7 2 years ago
  8. KAP

    @6

    So you say the reason for shit graphics and low frame rate is simply the hardware it’s on?
    *smh*

    Because god forbid we won’t get the same issues come next gen will we mate? I love that gamers who cry out for nex gen automatically assume games will evolve because of visuals.
    TWD, Journey, FTL, XCOM etc etc are just a testerment to “enjoyment” and saying something new running on a 7 year old tech. I, like yourself is excited for E3 but damn..

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Christopher Jack

    A new console generation is also good news for PC gamers. Mainly because of the next generation of gaming engines. Having a higher lowest common denominator always helps too. In saying this I think that many mainstream titles will skip the Wii U or be severely cut. It’ll be the Wii all over again.

    Then we also have to consider Android & iOS, surely Google & Apple will be aiming at taking over the living room soon- further enhancing smart phones as the perfect all in one device & gaming is just too big to ignore.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. sh4dow

    Personally, after this generation, I won’t make the same mistake again. For most big budget games I find it makes more sense to buy and sell a decent graphics card every two years or so. That’s like ~$150 every two years for the upgrade (I don’t buy highest end, currently I’d get a 7970).

    Considering I bought two 360s for ~$250 (E74… or E47? Thank you very much), I would have been much better off with PC…

    #10 2 years ago
  11. osric90

    I hope they come out around 2016 with a decent “generation jump”.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. OlderGamer

    I have to pretty much agree with that Sh4dow.

    At this point, I am done buying new hardware at launch. Waiting for bugs/glitches to be worked out, price drops, larger libaries of games just makes more sense.

    I could have a damn super PC for a quater of what I spent on consoles this past gen. Plus the games are cheaper too. Very few games out there that I honestly would miss, a small handfull of exclusives. But I am getting tired of MS and Sony exclusives.

    I already own the WiiU so I am covered with Nintendo exclusives. But even that I haven’t played in over a week. I just spend most of my time on a PC. So why not spend my gaming budget on that instead?

    #12 2 years ago
  13. polygem

    @shadow/og:
    that´s where i´m heading to. haven´t decided anything yet, need more infos about the next machines first, but my thoughts are going there more and more for sure—pc
    i actually even think it´s a great statement to make. i feel like ms didn´t do much for me. my account got hacked, i payed for online, then they throwed ads at me, ads…in a paid service. my xbl gold expires in march, haven´t turned the 360 on for a month or so, will prolly just let gold expire. i bought 3 360´s (i think, stopped counting). sony had a controller that i never liked, a shit online shop for far too long and i couldn´t play my psp games on the overpriced vita i bought.
    exclusives become more and more sequelclusives anyway. feel like been there done that.
    it wasn´t all bad though! i enjoyed the ps3 and i played the hell out of my 360. they delivered countless hours of gaming fun. question is, isn´t the pc just doing the same, while being a better deal? i don´t care about keeping my gamerscore or trophies., i really couldn´t care less about these achievement systems and i am glad wiiu is lacking that…i just want to have a reliable and affordable system where i can play great games on.

    #13 2 years ago
  14. OlderGamer

    Poly I think the jump from Console to PC should be more of a gradual slide then one big move.

    I have a decent PC, nothing great. I have always had lower end PCs with outdated video cards. My aim wasn’t to play brand new PC realeases or console ports on PC. My goal was to play lsightly older and very cheap games on PC that I couldn’t get anywhere else.

    However as this gen went on, I found myself spending more and more time not only playing, but wanting PC games. So I upgraded my PC from Poor to decent(middle range). I enoyed a lot of games that I couldn’t find anywhere else. Then I started getting into xbla style games. And alot of them are also on Steam(for less money). Instead of playing console OMP fps, I started spending my pvp focus on MMOrpgs like Guild Wars, Rift, and ofc World Of Warcraft. Instead of a narrow scope of classes that all played mostly the same, I now had an abundance of classes that could be dramiticly different. Instead of teams of 4 to 12, I was playing Wintergrasp battles where the players counts where in the hundreds. I just enjoyed it more. I am starting to look at Tribes and Planetside2 right now, both games are masive in scope. And both are free 2 play. Both are a lot more exciting to me then Halo, CoD, BF, or anything else I have tried on a console.

    But I don’t think you can just jump from one to the other. I think you would have withdraw symptoms lol. Esp you, because you are going to get that Halo itch.

    Mine was a slow conversion. But at this point I am seeing things different. I just don’t use the consoles beyond Netflix. I do play the ocasional game too. But nothing I can’t live without.

    When you get to that point, I would consider a switch. But if I were you Poly, I would wait and see where the dust settles. See if MS/Sony can excite you with their new systems. See if any new games are coming out you want(on console). See what Steambox is actualy going to offer. It might be just what you are looking for.

    You know one of my fav things about PC? Obviosly Steam rocks(go browse see what peaks your interest, scope it out), but what I like is that pretty much every game is BC. Sometimes really old games go out of support, but someone somewhere is just as likly to offer patches and fixes to keep older games running on new OS systems. I am currently playing some games that are over 15 years old, in 1080p+ and 60+ fps. That is pretty cool. It means that a great game never has to die or be shelved.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. Dragon246

    Xboxes and PSes are only as close walled as app store. But obviously they have a large barrier of entry because it prevents them from being a graveyard of shovelware that mobile gaming platforms. I can easily see psn and xbox existing as online ecosystem like googles and apples, albeit with much higher quality. They can allow third party hardware companies to license out their store. Although it has a very great disadvantage as it will make gaming costly.
    Lets face it, consoles BECAUSE they stay relevant for at least 5 years or so. You can buy them and then free yourself from hardware worries. Most people who own consoles don’t care if the game is 720p or 1080p native. Present system is awesome in that way.
    Most of the problems right now stems from physical retail market. PSN and xbl will obviously become the dominant way to buy games, overtaking physical. Its for the good.
    Frankly, systems are already in place (shift from physical to retail being the case in proof). Console gaming is not dying, its evolving. This gen has withered all the “disruptive” forces like mobile, apple, and so on, and yet this is the highest selling console gen ever, and its not over yet.
    Also, most of these “doomsayers” are from mobile industry. They think what iphone wasn’t able to do till now would happen in the future. They are just consoling themselves since they aren’t capable enough to make console games. Jetpack is certainly fun on vita/iphone/android, but not something that I will play on my ps3. Its the same for millions.
    Exclusive content will drive the preference of people, so first party will become important. What I don’t see in the picture is ninty. I don’t think their games will work great on multiple platforms as their dev cycle is really long. But I also don’t see them in this changing hardware biz since their online structure is nonexistent.
    Well, at least we have one more gen like this, so we can buy ps4/720/wiiu without worrying about this.

    #15 2 years ago
  16. OlderGamer

    Warning – TL:DR to most readers.

    To my friend Dragon:

    You really think Nintendo will bow out the market before Sony?

    Personaly I hope neither do. But really? Look at the top selling games charts for the XB360/PS3/Wii gen. Now factor in DS. The top sellers are dominated by Nintendo games. Even if you remove the DS figures, the charts are litered with Nintendo games.

    Nintendo exclusives outsold Sony. Why would they stop making hardware when clearly they can sell software on it? That just doesn’t make sense.

    I could see Nintendo shifting to multiplatforms if their games were underselling on their own platforms. But they aren’t.

    I think MS and Sony will do fine this next gen. I think Nintendo will too, but I doubt they repeat the numbers of the Wii. Infact I bet they don’t get half way there. But I bet they still make good money.

    Tructh be told of the established big three, Sony is in the worse financal shape. Sure they do more then games, but their games ain’t rocking it either.

    Btw, pointing out that is not trolling(despite the probable redness in your face right now – j/k). Those are accepted facts pretty much industry wide. Sony has had a very hard past few years. Companies flucuate, it happens, maybe they can bounce back. Maybe they can’t, maybe their other biz ventures pull the Playstation brand down the drian. I don’t know time will tell.

    But you honestly can’t see they aren’t in the same position finacialy/game marketwise that they were in before the start of this gen? That is where the crux, I think, of what other posters call you out on. Plus:

    “Exclusive content will drive the preference of people, so first party will become important. What I don’t see in the picture is ninty. I don’t think their games will work great on multiple platforms as their dev cycle is really long. But I also don’t see them in this changing hardware biz since their online structure is nonexistent.”

    Not only does this statement reinforce what I have said above, but I don’t see you post much w/o taking shots at Nintendo.

    And before you start fanboying me, everyone has a fav system. Even those of us that own multisystems likly have a fav. I know I do. It is Sega! Or NEC! Err NEO GEO! Well lately I have been big on Nintendo, ofc.

    It is just that it doesn’t really mean anything. I am not going to put you down for being a PS3 fan. Anymore then I wanna be put down for making the game choices I do either.

    But opinions aside, gaming tatses aside there are certian facts involved. Like the fact that Nintendo exlclusives sold EXTREMLY well. Hint, Nintendos top sellers out sold Sonys top sellers(I think they outsold MSs too, but I haven’t checked in a few months). And while many companies are struggling Sony as a company is in very poor shape. Their debt value is now Junk Bond level, for example. That isn’t healthy.

    I guess my over all point isn’t to make you feel bad, but to perhaps point out what myself and others keep getting hung up on. You are really only seing a narrow scope of the over all picture.

    You can like Sony. Enjoy their games. They don’t need to be world wide dominate for you to do that. My fav software company of all time was Sega before the death of dreamcast. My all time fav hardware was TurboDuo. Neither of those guys where ever the pinicle of any sales chart. But while I enjoyed those guys it wouldn’t have been cool for me to constantly slam someone else for enjoying Nintendo over Sega or for not even knowing what a TD system was or who Bonk is. To like one you don’t have to bash another.

    This is going to be a long year lol. I just have been getting tired of arguing with you in seemingly every thread. Maybe this post helps, maybe it just fuels the flames. Here is my plan. Live and let live. Or post and let post lol ;) Feel free to rply, tell me where I am wrong. I will read it. I may not agree, but I will read it.

    So long as it always stays classy, and I think we do a good job of that, it is all good.

    #16 2 years ago
  17. polygem

    @og: i played on pc in the mid/late nintys a lot, living with 4 friends in a flat in berlin kreuzberg, making music, playing shows and playing unreal tournamrent and need for speed all night. good times. i also had an awesome gaming notebook for a while in the mid 00′s. i like steam. i will definiteley wait and see what nextgen will offer. i don’t feel like rushing things. i certainly don’t feel that loyal to either ms or sony to blindly buy into their next thing. it’s a good position for me. relaxed. you got a point with halo. but i prefered bungies take anyway. destiny goes multiplat. so does insomniac…
    yes, i think the steambox could be exactly what i am looking for. this year will be interesting indeed.

    #17 2 years ago
  18. Dragon246

    @OG,
    No time to read now, maybe later. But no, I don’t think they will bow out. Their exclusives will work best on their hardware only. But in an increasingly online market, they are behind the curve. Even the best games wont sell if not backed up by marketing and a proper distribution system.
    And where did I use the word fanboy? Looks like “poly” virus is infecting you too.
    Point is, retail will be dead and online infrastructure will sustain sales. Does eshop even compare to psn and xbl of yesteryears?
    Food for thought.

    #18 2 years ago
  19. fearmonkey

    The end of this console generation places me in a interesting position.
    For the first time, i wonder if a next gen system is going to really excite me.

    When the Dreamcast came out I had a Voodoo 3 that couldn’t render 32bit colors. Quake 3 on the Dreamcast looked far better than my PC, and I didnt better that until I got a Geforce 2 card.

    When the Xbox launched, I had a Geforce 3 Ti200 which was about what the Xbox had with its NV2A chip, but console games had the better controls and it was a great experience.

    When the 360 released it had a better GPU than I had in my PC at the time, a Geforce 6600. PC games and controllers were still hit and miss, and I preferred a controller for most games.

    Now at the end of the 360 and the beginning of a next gen launch, I have a AMD 7870 2GB, and a GTX480, most console games are ported to the PC and use the xbox controller, and even non console PC games use it too. The console and PC experience has blurred, its not that separate anymore.

    Consoles are focusing on gadgets like tablet controllers, motion controls and non traditional gameplay ideas. The question remains to be seen if that becomes the big difference between console and pc gaming, gadgets. I imagine that the tablet controller will be available for PC someday even so.

    So, will the next gen consoles still have a better GPU than my PC currently, or lose performance for gadgetry that “enhances” gameplay? I may sit out awhile if its the later, and may bite on a new console at launch if its the former.

    #19 2 years ago
  20. OlderGamer

    While I think a couple of your points are valid Dragon, esp about the online network features/structures, I am not sure it matters.

    Wii couldn’t compete graphicly or online. But it held its own.

    As for the eShop it isn’t bad. Good even. It offers almost all of the retail games day and date and at the same price point for download. That is pretty good. They just came out ofc, but have a few indie games. I think growth along that line is something Nintendo may struggle with. But so far so good.

    I think one spot where Nintendo did well in the digital download area is allowing pretty much any old extrenal HDD to work. And it uses a couple of TB of storage. That makes storing a libary of games easy and cheap.

    But I doubt the death of retail is gonna happen this gen. I think Nintendo needs retail, I think the bulk of their buyers need retail, and I know retail surly needs Nintendo(MS and Sony). I think that keeps buying games from a store alive for a gen longer.

    The online play of the actual games has been hit and miss. I think it is down to the game title and not really the fault of the network as run by Nintendo. Somes games are silky smooth, some games are not. But prolly a bit of the growing pains type things all the way around.

    What I am waiting for is the eventual Nintendo Network hacked news. Maybe it won’t happen, but I have a feeling…

    #20 2 years ago
  21. Dragon246

    Scratch my previous post. Half it was eaten alive by my net connection. Lazarus saved my ass from writing it again.
    @OG,
    But no, I don’t think they will bow out (at least not this gen). Their exclusives will work best on their hardware only. But in an increasingly online market, they are behind the curve. Even the best games wont sell if not backed up by marketing and a proper distribution system.
    And where did I use the word fanboy? Looks like “poly” virus is infecting you too.
    Point is, retail will be dead and online infrastructure will sustain sales. Does eshop even compare to psn and xbl of yesteryears?
    Food for thought.
    The main pie in gaming has always been 3rd party devs and pubs. Ninty has the highest selling 1st party devs, but that’s it. Its a console for exclusives. Even ninty realized years ago what its fans cant even understand now, its too small to fight off sony and ms. Hence the wii, now wiiu. Whats next? 3 screens? How long can they chase a migrating market. Thats why they are trying to woo existing ps3/360 customers, because they are sustainable market to sell games.
    Also, something of note, latest entries of most ninty franchises are selling less than its predecessors, whether pokemon, animal crossing, mario.
    Miyamoto also said they are planning to venture into other biz like films etc. I hope they do that sooner.
    Btw, the best blue chip cos right now is google. They have the most sustainable products and biz model out of all . Unfortunately they aren’t interested in gaming in particular.

    #21 2 years ago
  22. OlderGamer

    Ok well last I looked Wii Mario Kart sold over 44million copies. That is a lot more then Gamecube, N64, or Snes MK. I don’t know about the rest of the lot, but you said most so fair enough.

    Nintendo has already done things other then gaming. Cartoons for example. Retail toys. Trading Card games. And other such game relaited tie ins.

    As far as them not being big enough to fight against Sony and MS…I really don’t think they are see it that way. Sure those other companies are competiters sharing the same industry. But Nintendo doesn’t have to steal away from the MS market share in order to survive. They are Niche but not in a negitive way. We hear it all of the time, Nintendo just does their own thing. That is one of their strong points.

    You can own a MS/Sony system and yet Nintendo system still offer games and game types you can get from those systems. I think that is why MS went after Kinect and Sony developed Move(as well as LBPK and PSAS). Nintendo opperates outside of the other two to some degree, and because of that it has allowed them to thrive inspite of the other guys instead of going head to head against them.

    #22 2 years ago

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