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Nintendo’s predictions “highly unrealistic”, says Pachter

Thursday, 25th October 2012 01:39 GMT By Brenna Hillier

Nintendo’s expectation of selling four games per Wii U console this financial year is a bit ambitious, according to industry analyst Michael Pachter.

“Guidance for 24 million Wii U software units in FY:13 implies an attach rate of over four games, which we view as highly unrealistic given pricing and release slate,” Pachter said in a note reacting to Nintendo’s updated fiscal outlook, as reported by GameIndustry.

The analyst said the Wii U has a tough holiday season ahead because it’s going up against the triple-A lineups of other consoles, the iPad Mini and new Kindle Fire HD, but did note that the new console’s software looks good.

“The launch schedule is better than we had initially expected, with notable launch day titles including Activision Blizzard’s Call of Duty: Black Ops II, EA Sports’ FIFA Soccer 13, Nintendo’s New Super Mario Bros. U and Nintendo Land, and Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed III and ZombiU,” he said.

“However, demand will probably wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 5 – 6 million units, negatively impacting long-term hardware and software sales as well.”

On the back of a poor quarter, Nintendo expects to shift 5.5 million Wii U consoles before March 31; the new console launches in November.

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9 Comments

  1. Clupula

    I actually agree with Pachter on this…which means I’m probably wrong, because Pachter is never right.

    #1 2 years ago
  2. Dragon246

    Who knows? Sales are a mysterious thing. If someone predicted it correctly always , he would be one the richest blokes on earth. My prediction is 4m tops.
    About software, I don’t know. But 15m is a good bet. Attach rate of 3.
    They will make a loss this year too, albeit a small one.

    #2 2 years ago
  3. helios

    Even a 10-year old kid can do what pachter does i.e, citing the obvious and calls it as ‘prediction’.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. DrDamn

    @1
    Arse me too. I even posted in the other thread the attach rate was a bit ambitious. I reckon Nintendoland (which will be bundled with lots) and smaller digital releases are factored in.

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Gadzooks!

    Including downloadables it doesn’t seem unreasonable, but 4 retail games in 3-4 months could be a bit of a stretch considering they likely won’t have dropped in price much, if any, by that time.

    #4

    Arse me too? :D

    #5 2 years ago
  6. DrDamn

    @5
    Arse, I agreed with Pachter too :) – not something you want to be doing that often.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. Da Man

    Well, Pachter was right on with the Vita, but then he was being a Captain Obvious too.

    #7 2 years ago
  8. mistermogul

    “However, demand will probably wane once Nintendo’s core fan base has purchased the first 5 – 6 million units”

    I can see this happening as I’m not sure the Wii U is going to appeal to the masses like Wii did.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. monkeygourmet

    Remember things like Wii pads aswell.

    Nintendo have been pretty clever, Wii remotes Prob cost about £5.00 forNintendo to make now, if not less…

    But as their compatible with Wii U, they can still sell the old tech at £29.99…

    Lots a ways for them to recycle old Wii stuff and sell it as new.

    #9 2 years ago

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