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‘Industry decline will continue until Microsoft or Sony launch new console’ – Pachter

Monday, 8th October 2012 16:39 GMT By Dave Cook

Xbox 720 or PS4 could be the key to stimulating the declining video game market, according to Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter. His statements come ahead of the NPD releasing yearly market figures that are expected to make for grim reading.

GI.biz reports that a preview to the NPD’s full report – due on Thursday – includes a note fro Pachter who says the typically strong Christmas season will not reverse the industry’s poor sales health.

“We expect October – December to be relatively flat,” Pachter stated, “and expect a return to negative territory again next year, at least until the launch of a next-generation console from Microsoft or Sony.”

“A new console cycle is likely to reverse the negative sales trends of the last several years,” Pachter continued, “with next-generation consoles expected from each of the three manufacturers over the next 18 months.2

“Nintendo will launch the Wii U on November 18, and, while neither Sony nor Microsoft has yet announced new hardware, we expect a PS4 no later than November 2013, and a next Xbox no later than March 2014.”

“We believe that the publishers plan an unprecedented number of new games for launch in the first two years of the next generation, providing relief from the gamer fatigue we’ve seen over the last three years.”

So that’s interesting – Pachter expects PS4 to launch before Xbox 720. What do you make of that? Let us know below.

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26 Comments

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  1. Fin

    Makes sense.

    The man is a legend.

    #1 2 years ago
  2. G1GAHURTZ

    So he’s expecting absolutely nothing from the WiiU, then…

    #2 2 years ago
  3. Dave Cook

    @2 I wouldn’t say that necessarily man. I think maybe he thinks true next-gen gaming is what will re-energise people. It’s that leap in power that fickle people want.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. G1GAHURTZ

    “fickle people”…

    Ha ha!

    That literally did make me laugh out loud.

    #4 2 years ago
  5. DSB

    I just don’t think he knows.

    The Wii was poison for third parties, it just couldn’t move games unless it said Nintendo on the box. So until the Wii U proves otherwise, I reckon it’s virtually irrelevant for the industry as a whole.

    I don’t know about gamer fatigue. It seems to me like people are just as bored with the games as they are with the consoles. No doubt a new launch will boost numbers, but by how much, and for how long?

    #5 2 years ago
  6. YoungZer0

    @5: The only thing that gets me excited about the new consoles is the potential for new franchises.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. OlderGamer

    What DSB said.

    I think unless games change in a meaningful and fundimental way, the boon from new consoles will be smaller then needed and temperary.

    #7 2 years ago
  8. DSB

    @6 Totally. It’s just kinda hard to picture major publishers suddenly throwing confetti around going “Yaaaay, time to innovate!” after standing virtually still for so long.

    I get the sense that they’re too defeatist and too apathetic to really move games forward.

    I fear that those new franchise bids are going to be utterly predictable and utterly safe.

    Battlefield of Duty: Halo of War.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Erthazus

    New consoles = new possibilities and new ip ofc.

    but this gen sucked a lot, I hope that next gen will be 5 years or 6 years at best. 10 years life cycle is too much in my opinion.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. GrimRita

    Do we really need ‘next gen’? Publishers and developers already cant even afford to publish on the current gen – can consumers afford next gen? Maybe gamers are bored to their teeth of the same old rehashed shit offered year in year out?

    Maybe if some publishers showed some balls and delivered some new IP or revisited long forgotten genres, things may improve.

    #10 2 years ago
  11. NiceFellow

    So the Wii sold more consoles and software than either PS3 or 360 yet he basically ignores Wii U?

    I mean I barely used my Wii and most games aren’t to my taste – but it seems he’s allowing the usual HD/Western bias to colour his views. The Wii sold the most and had the most normal lifecycle curve – now it’s fading fast but a replacement is due and it’s already generating interest in a pretty big launch library yet it’s successor is thought incapable of revitalizing things?

    I guess he’s focusing on 3rd party sales dipping which are primarily on PS3/360 as the negative trend – unless Nintendo mess up Wii U should sell well and no doubt will shift oddles of Mario software as usual.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. Lord Gremlin

    PS4 will indeed launch earlier. Major retailers have been notified. I don’t know why new xbox is delayed. Rumors are some troubles with production of CPU, but those are rumors.

    #12 2 years ago
  13. G1GAHURTZ

    ^ Source?

    #13 2 years ago
  14. Dragon246

    Would be interesting if ps4 launches ahead of 720. One of the reasons cited for 360 success is that it was first to the party, although I doubt that they would want to lose that advantage. Or they have started taking things for granted like sony did in early ps3 era.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. OlderGamer

    “It’s just kinda hard to picture major publishers suddenly throwing confetti around going “Yaaaay, time to innovate!” after standing virtually still for so long.

    I get the sense that they’re too defeatist and too apathetic to really move games forward.

    I fear that those new franchise bids are going to be utterly predictable and utterly safe.

    Battlefield of Duty: Halo of War.”

    Taking your inner Eeyore for a walk, DSB? ;)

    #15 2 years ago
  16. OlderGamer

    Dragon246, I don’t think being first has anything to do with it the single biggest reason 360 beat PS3 out of the gate was the high price of PS3. And Sony did the same damn thing when launching Vita vs 3DS.

    Coming late to the party allows some advantages too, like slightly newer tech, perhaps cheaper manufacturing costs…but that is throw out the window if you out price your market.

    If I were Sony, I would wait and see what type of system/strategy MS was doing. I would think I could compete with PS3 against WiiU, and maybe even counter an expensive new MS system with lower prices and PSN+. I believe that the PS3 system is capible of countering any service that MS is going to offer. And if Sony can’t compete in that dept, a new piece of hardware won’t mean much. Services win next gen, not hardware power imo.

    #16 2 years ago
  17. DSB

    @15 LOL. Oh snap :D

    I can’t imagine how gratifying that must have been for you.

    Really hope they prove me wrong though. The last launch was definitely an anti-climax for me.

    #17 2 years ago
  18. OlderGamer

    I loved every word DSB ;)

    It was like you were in my head!

    #18 2 years ago
  19. DSB

    I just get the sense that the only major execs who seem even remotely aware of what they’re actually making for a living are Kaz Hirai and Jason Rubin.

    That’s obviously being rash, there are more out there.

    But listening to people like Gibeau, Ricitiello, Guillemot, Fils-Aime, Hirschberg, Zelnick and all the other empty suits, it’s easy to take a pessimistic view about the people who decide where gaming goes from here.

    Very few of those are running healthy businesses, and very few seem to have a clue.

    #19 2 years ago
  20. Levester

    this guy is seriously fucking retarded

    #20 2 years ago
  21. zinc

    I’m more optimistic. I see the videogame industry following the movie industry model. 3-4 blockbusters a year, with smaller indie orientated games to fill the gaps.

    #21 2 years ago
  22. G1GAHURTZ

    I also don’t think that there’s any reason to doubt that growth will return. I think MMOs are going to move from PC to console next gen, including a new load of MMOFPS’s.

    I’ve got a feeling that this will probably be more than enough to reinvigorate the industry, and see more and more growth.

    On top of that, I think that the 720 and PS4′s upcoming augmented reality controllers are going to be huge sellers.

    #22 2 years ago
  23. brotherhoodofthewolf

    i hope this guy isn’t too well paid – talk about captain obvious!

    #23 2 years ago
  24. polygem

    i am with G1GA here regarding mmofps becoming the next big thing, with bungies “destiny” becoming the first true masterpiece in this genre. i know there are games going that route already on the pc but i really think we will see the next step here, technically, quality- and creativitywise. i am having the highest hopes for bungies next thing. it´s just the logical next step for them and done right it could be really fantastic.

    new consoles will definiteley help sales but the question really is for how long. i think ms will really come around with this 99$ console subscription model that was rumored – having a lot of services besides gaming. it will be interesting how sony will counter that. wiiu seems strong to me too. sony atm is: great exclusives and overpriced hardware. i doubt they can win anything with that strategy. they need to drasticaly change it. i hope they will surprise me with something really cool, i really do. this gen out of all the consoles the ps ones have been my least favourite i must say. it had some truly amazing games and that´s the most important thing, but as consoles they felt soulless and boring to me. most of all i liked that fat ol´launch psp probably. wii sufered from that console unsexyness too though. there have been many things that the 360 did right. it was a proper console. probably my fave this gen. when the current gen consoles launched i was very hyped, with hd and all that. this time around….not so much. i love halo and many other “old” ip´s but i definiteley crave some new gaming experiences.

    #24 2 years ago
  25. blackdreamhunk

    The Industry will decline because game devs have become too greedy honest I amhappy with my Guildwars steam and MMO’s. I don’t think I will ever buy a $60 or $100 game again. Unless it is GW2,mass effect or maybe even battle field I have been playing less and less games.

    #25 2 years ago
  26. powerbuoy

    I really hope Sony teams up with Google for the PS4. A GoogleTV/Android powered system that would immediately have access to apps such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube (how long did it take for that to come to the PS3??), not to mention the vast library of Android games that are out there.

    It would also work terribly well with smartphones out of the box if it ran Android. Obviously it shouldn’t be a new Ouya but still have AAA titles etc. Android wouldn’t power the games themselves, just the underlying system.

    On a side note, what I look forward to the most with new consoles is having more accurate physics in games. I hope more developers start prioritizing that.

    #26 2 years ago