Thu, Aug 30, 2012 | 17:48 BST

Industry analyst voices concern over Wii U momentum with Xbox 720 and PS4 “arriving in 2013″

Industry analyst Colin Sebastian has voiced concern over whether Wii U will have enough momentum at retail with a new Xbox and PS4 “arriving in 2013.”

According to his industry note, the Robert W. Baird & Co. analyst believes Nintendo is “missing an opportunity,” to build greater mindshare “ahead of the Wii-U launch on November 18.”

“While initial strong sales are likely given the Nintendo fan base, we believe there may be a narrow window of opportunity to generate broad consumer interest before next-gen Microsoft and Sony platforms are announced in 1H-2013 and launch in Q4 2013,” said Sebastian. “We expect Nintendo to announce Wii-U pricing on September 13, likely in the $249-$299 range.

“We note that next-gen platforms are expected to support physical disks and used game sales.”

As far as key title releases are concerned, Sebastian feels the slate is “shaping up well,” with key holiday video games such as Black Ops 2, Assassin’s Creed 3 and Borderlands 2 “on track,” and feels several titles “could be sleeper hits” with consumers such as Hitman: Absolution and Dishonored.

69 comments

#1

Fin
30/08/12, 4:24 pm

Yup, Wii U’s fucked.

#2

xino
30/08/12, 4:38 pm

they are retarded

#3

ps3fanboy
30/08/12, 4:58 pm

the wiiu is a toy and will be 20 years behind, you want a proper game console buy an ps4 or x720.

#4

Deacon
30/08/12, 5:05 pm

but are Black Ops 2, AC3, Borderlands 2, Hitman & Dishonoured really going to have features worthy of buying a WiiU for? as opposed to buying them for the console you already have (assuming you have one)?
They’re not system sellers. Not unless you’re a virgin to the home console game.

As I’ve said before, Nintendo will spam the airwaves with their vomit-inducing celebrity advertisements, and people will buy into it. They’re not bad at all with their marketing.

But, yeah, when Sony and Microsoft ‘unleash the beast’ in 2013, Nintendo are going to find themselves in a pretty hard spot. With little to no USP. There’s nothing stopping Sony or MS from bringing a very similar tablet controller to market (is there?). And when/if that happens, the only card Nintendo will have left to play is their exclusive IP.

I reckon maybe two years into the next Sony and MS consoles, third parties will begin to develop only for PC and PS4/Xbox, cutting their cost of having to downscale specifically for a WiiU release. I could be way off base with that, but I could see it happening.

#5

ManuOtaku
30/08/12, 5:13 pm

#4 i think the only games that will use in a different way the gamepad on WiiU are Colonial Marines, Rayman and project p-100, from third parties of course, the rest i think it will not have an specific gamepad advantage, but maybe this notion is wrong and those games you mentioned will have an especial added feature for the gamepad, but that in my opinion is not the point, and avid gamer will get the WiiU for the nintendo tittles, some exclusives, and the more casual market will get it for the games and the price point, therefore i think it will do well, especially if they can assure games, good price and a good online offering.

Regarding third parties not developing for the WiiU at a later point in its lifecycle, thats a fare question, the wii suffer from this, now i think if those games due scalable principles will come to IOS and other mobile devices, chances are it will come to the WiiU too, in scalable form, but it is a fair and interesting question, time will tell.

#6

xxJPRACERxx
30/08/12, 5:15 pm

This gen Nintendo fooled a lot of people with the Wii. I’m sure those people won’t make the same mistake twice. I think Nintendo will be in trouble next-gen.

#7

wishdokta
30/08/12, 5:23 pm

I’m not sure about that. Wii was obviously weaker than PS360 and kept selling.
It’s Nintendo and there will be a new round between those contestants.

#8

Joe Musashi
30/08/12, 5:23 pm

@6 It’ll be about the games.

The Wii, in my opinion, often sacrificed gameplay for the sake of pushing the hardware’s USP – motion controls. Many games simply didn’t need or benefit from it.

Conversely, with the 3DS – Nintendo have appeared to scale right back on pushing the hardware USP above the quality of available gameplay. That said, the USP on the 3DS was never going to be that integral to any game.

The WiiU’s USP – that’s a far closer knit with gameplay. For better or worse remains to be seen.

JM

#9

polygem
30/08/12, 8:58 pm

it´s about games. nintendo games are – most of the time – truly amazing. multiplat dev./ports will be so much easier this time too…there´s no need to worry. not at all. it´s a cash maschine.
@6: huh…who has been fooled by the wii? some of the best games this gen have been on that thing…i have been fooled by the psp go, by xbl gold, a fifa12 xbox hack and modern warfare 3…but thats about it this gen.

#10

Clupula
30/08/12, 11:04 pm

Oh dear. Here we go again.

#11

OlderGamer
30/08/12, 11:13 pm

“huh…who has been fooled by the wii? some of the best games this gen have been on that thing”

Spot on.

#12

absolutezero
30/08/12, 11:14 pm

STOP IT

JUST FUCKING STOP.

BEFORE IT EVEN STARTS.

You know you can walk away, just look the other direction. Just take a little glance to one side, breathe and click away!

#13

manamana
31/08/12, 1:19 pm

I think Nintendo would’ve been in a far better position, if they had launched the WiiU a year ago. Anyhow, it will sell. But they will get into trouble once the “real” next-gen arrives. Only thing left will be the standard Nintendo games. Nobody who has an PS360 is going to buy Blackops2 on the WiiU.

#14

YoungZer0
31/08/12, 1:28 pm

@7: Because they fooled everyone into thinking that the Wiimote would actually deliver what it promised. It didn’t. What also didn’t help was the fact that third party developer pretty much abandoned the console as soon as they realized its limitations. The same will happen to the WiiU and there is no reason to believe that the people are stupid enough to fall for a new gadget.

I mean even the most hardcore Nintendo Fans have to admit that Nintendo stopped releasing good games a long time ago and is just throwing out soulless shovelware now.

Fact is the controls were the only reason why people bought that dust catcher. They are familiar with it now, they can better, more precise controls on the new consols and their developers actually deliver new games. How about that?

#15

Deacon
31/08/12, 1:30 pm

I think people are also discounting the power of the achievement too. I’m no trophy whore, but there are many people IMO – especially in the lower age bracket – who wouldn’t consider changing format and abandoning their Gamerscore / PSN level.

Nintendo may go on about having Black Ops 2 and the like on their system, but as #13 said, is that enough to entice those who play a lot of FPS’ onto WiiU?

I honestly wish them the best (despite not liking the dual-screen, eyes-up-and-down premise), and were it not for the stupidity of the average consumer and willingness to buy into anything that is advertised, I’d be worried for their future.

#16

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 1:44 pm

#14 said “Because they fooled everyone into thinking that the Wiimote would actually deliver what it promised”

The wiimote did work, especially for adventure games, sport games, on rail shooters, and many more games, like zack and wiki, red steel 2, madworld, punch out, both no more heroes, the last legend of zelda, pro evolution soccer, metroid prime, mario kart etc, demostrated that it worked fine, and for me they did deliver it, maybe the other consoles have better motion controls now, but i have yet to find a better game than skysword on the other consoles, i mean in the motion control department, therefore in my eyes the wii mote is not have been bested yet by the other two, maybe the gunstringer is the closest one.

“I mean even the most hardcore Nintendo Fans have to admit that Nintendo stopped releasing good games a long time ago and is just throwing out soulless shovelware now”

2010 and 2011 were the best years in the wii lifecycle, we received the best wii titles, from nintendo and even in the third party front (monster hunter tri, red steel 2, sin and punishment,etc), 2007 and 2008 were pretty good too, heck even this year, that it can be considered the only lacking year in the wii lifecycle alongside with 2006, we had xenoblade, last story, and the posibility of pandoras tower with the dragon quest MMO, is having a decent number of exclusive tittles for a soon to be replaced console,i have yet to found a year that i didnt bought at least 4 worthy nintendo tittles in the least, for me it was way better than the gamecube before it, therefore like i said it was a great generation for the wii, in the titles front, i dont have any complain at all in that regard.

p.s Why in every new nintendo thread we keep recycling terms like kiddy, not new ips, and now dust catcher again, man theres two options for the wii to catch dust, one you dont like nintendo games or nintendo for that matter, so why it was bought it in the first place?, and two because it was broken and you couldnt repair it, and thats it , thats the only two reasons for the wii collecting dust, neither of them hasnt anything to do with the lack of great games.

#17

Da Man
31/08/12, 1:46 pm

Out of morbid curiosity, #15, do you have any evidence that ‘the average consumer’ was dissatisfied with their Wii purchase and bought it solely and/or largely due to their ‘stupidity’ and ‘advertisements’? Other than your hopeless angst against popular entertainment and imaginary interpretations of corporate attitudes? (both of which aren’t exactly signs of high intelligence, but I digress)

#18

Deacon
31/08/12, 2:04 pm

I didn’t say anything about anyone being dissatisfied with their Wii purchase.

Out of morbid curiosity, do you come into these articles with the intention of commenting on the subject at hand? or just to challenge other peoples opinions in an attempt to promote your own bigotry?

I was simply trying to imply that Nintendo will shift units, regardless of the fact that the concept may or may not prove to have lasting value. People buy anything that is advertised these days, especially if it’s deemed ‘popular’. We love to consume.

Stating the obvious perhaps, but then I never claimed to be of vast intellect. That’s your remit! :)

#19

YoungZer0
31/08/12, 2:11 pm

@16:

Or three:

The Wii had little to no games. Yep, that’s sounds more plausible.

#20

Da Man
31/08/12, 2:18 pm

Yep, I happen to pay particular attention to people who enjoy describing massive amounts of others as being ‘stupid’ based on that those enjoy another kind of entertainment. Unless you do have evidence that people bought Wii solely due to it being advertised that is.

I bought some tomatoes yesterday at the most popular store, love to consume. Stupid, isn’t it? Why would I buy tomatoes instead of some anime for 13 year olds?

But, hey buddy whatever. I can as well just post my opinion on others’ moms.

#21

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 2:23 pm

#19 thats funny because in the thread of milking mario you agree with the notion that is overmilk, therefore that hints a lot of mario games, so what is it then?, there is milking and for that lot of games, or is collecting dust for the lack of games, you cannot have both ways here, it will be quite a paradox.

#22

YoungZer0
31/08/12, 2:35 pm

@21: Okay, scratch that, the Wii didn’t have enough GOOD Games. And if you take away Nintendos shovelware, there is really not much left. As i said before, the Wii was quickly abandoned when other developers figured out just how limited the controls and the power of the console was.

That is already happening to the WiiU.

Just admit to yourself that there is no way the WiiU will survive. A gimmick can only hold you for so long.

#23

OrbitMonkey
31/08/12, 2:36 pm

@20, Y’see I look at comment number 3 and figure that’s you ” describing massive amounts of others as being ‘immature’ based on that those enjoy another kind of entertainment”.

http://www.vg247.com/2012/08/31/final-fantasy-versus-13-please-wait-a-little-longer-says-wada/#comments

Still keep on trolling and then trying to call others out on it. Mature :-P

#24

Deacon
31/08/12, 2:36 pm

The Wii exploded and almost singlehandedly launched the ‘casual gamer’ label. Families, adults, grandparents, all invested (and I’m guessing here – if that’s allowed) primarily due to word of mouth, having tried one at a relatives house, or having seen how much damn fun the families were having in the Nintendo adverts.

I choose to label people stupid because I don’t like what they buy. Yeah that’s a fair statement. I guess I’m the bigot!

So you’ve never thought anyone ‘stupid’ for spending their hard-earned on something you don’t personally like? or succumbing to advertising for a shitty product?

If I don’t think something’s worth the money, and I see people buying it in droves, then I should probably just go about my business and respect their decision, right? Where’s the damn fun in that???!

#25

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 2:42 pm

#22 then we enter personal opinions what is good for me is not for you and viceversa with bad games, therefore thats your personal opinion, and like i said theres two options for you to say it collected dust or is full of shovelware (like the ps2 didnt), 1.-because you dont like nintendo or their games2.- because is broken and you cannot repair it, and if its the first one why you did bought it in the first place?, is not the faults of the machine or the lack of quality games, is your perception of them, which i do respect, although i dont agree, but what i dont respect is the label you put on the console from your perception, just say is not for you, which will be more fitting.

And i do believe the Wiiu will do good, just seeing the situation of the Ds with the 3Ds, which makes me have a precedent for this thinking, but i might grant it will not be as succesfull as the wii, but it will do good numbers nontheless, time will tell.

#26

Da Man
31/08/12, 2:53 pm

You’re mistaken, #24. PSX did it. When Ninety were struggling, hopelessly trying to attract more people playing nerdy video games with N64, Sony were too busy with attracting new demographics and people who wouldn’t even look at those silly 2d sprites running around the dungeons.

As for sad, cynical, sarcastic try-hard, let me point you out the obvious: I showed my distaste towards content, whereas others showed distaste for customers (that’s why ‘unless’ was in there). I apologize, next time I’ll want to comment on Rapelay, I’ll be sure not to describe it as something aimed at retards. Not that it should stop you from trying harder.

#27

YoungZer0
31/08/12, 2:59 pm

@25: Sure the PS2 had shovelware, but the embarrassing part about the Wii is that the main developer is the one who produces most of the shovelware.

I mean seriously, you can’t tell me that New Super Mario Bros Wii was a good game, or Skyward Sword. New Super Mario Bros Wii is just a loveless map pack, with a few new sprites.

Skyward Sword? I don’t understand why so many reviewer gave it a good rating. I like how so many of them praised Nintendo for doing nothing new, while criticising Naughty Dog for doing nothing new with Uncharted 3.

I mean, i think i do understand. There are two factors here:

1. The last Zelda title is 5 years old, so i guess you’re going to love it, no matter what.

2. Nintendo is known to be a bully, they’ll probably fuck you up if you give them a bad review.

Anyway, if Darksiders 2 and Batman Arkham City have proven anything it’s that Zelda games are outdated and lost a lot of their appeal.

Bringing me back to the point which will always rise when we talk about Nintendo: They don’t evolve. Remember what happens when you don’t evolve?

#28

Ireland Michael
31/08/12, 3:00 pm

@24 “So you’ve never thought anyone ‘stupid’ for spending their hard-earned on something you don’t personally like? or succumbing to advertising for a shitty product?”

Uuuuh… I would hope anyone over the age of 20 doesn’t do any of things.

Why would you call someone stupid for buying something you don’t like? I hate Call of Duty, but some of my closest friends play it. I regularly ask them out, and I disagree wholeheartedly with their assessment of the franchise, but someone having a difference of opinion to you doesn’t make them “stupid”. A stupid person is one who ignores facts. Opinions aren’t fact.

I’m never “succumbed to advertising for a shitty product”, and I don’t know many people my age (30) who do. It’s this cool little ability called “thinking for yourself”. That and most of us don’t even bother with television channels.

Da Man is right about one thing. Showing distaste towards consumers as opposed to products is a pretty moronic and self-absorbed approach to to things.

#29

stretch215
31/08/12, 3:04 pm

Hardware limitations are what caused third party developers to abandon the wii. The wiiu will probably have a successful launch, but I see the same thing happening again when the ps4/720 systems are released. Sure, the engines may be able to scale, but at what cost? Edit: someone has already basically said that. Oh well

#30

Clupula
31/08/12, 3:06 pm

The Wii U has nothing to attract the hardcore gamer right now. The Nintendo fanboys will flock to it as they would anything with the Nintendo logo on it, but they have done nothing to make people who already own PS3/360′s come to the table. The Wii’s success was 90% marketing to families and casuals who didn’t play games previously (and who stopped after they bought one or two games for the Wii). Those people will not be there this time. Therefore, the Wii U is going to get slaughtered once the PS4 and 720 come out, unless Nintendo does something pretty drastic.

#31

Ireland Michael
31/08/12, 3:06 pm

@29 Countless shovelware and the lack of decent sales for anything that wasn’t an officially developed Nintendo product is what causes third party developers to abandon the Wii. Nintendo at terrible at counting third parties, no matter how much they may claim otherwise.

@30 The PS3 and Xbox 360 are not going to disappear overnight. It takes a good two years for new console hardware to supersede the current grn consoles, due to the significantly smaller userbase of the new machines. It would cannibalise software sales. Don’t expect much in the way of genuinely “next gen” games until well into the second or third year of the new years. The Wii U will have plenty of years of current gen titles to run off.

#32

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 3:11 pm

#27 Do you really think the Ds And wii, werent not a form of evolution?, good or bad, that can be discussed and will depend on the preferences of the beholder, but they were clearly an experiment for evolution, they did changed the way we play games, for good or bad, like i said will depend on the opinion of each individual, but they were clearly a nintendo move or attempt in order to try to evolve their business and gaming

“Sure the PS2 had shovelware, but the embarrassing part about the Wii is that the main developer is the one who produces most of the shovelware”.

That is your opinion, i respected it, but i dont agree and i believe a lot of gamers wont neither, there is a reason why the other two consoles gamers want nintendo becoming the next SEGA, hint it is not for the shovelware they create, that i can assure you.

#33

DrDamn
31/08/12, 3:15 pm

Don’t think it’s a big issue given the machine offers something different, be it through *standard* control experiences or the Nintendo first party titles. However in terms of competing for cash they may have an issue in Europe if they don’t launch this year – as has been suggested. Purely from a money, and getting it past the missus, perspective I’d like a WiiU this year and consider my options next year for the successors for Sony and MS.

As it stands Nintendo has a clear run at the holiday market in the US and Japan at least. They will sell as many as they can make and that will give them enough momentum. In Europe they may lose out on a lot of that and launch could be spoiled for some potential purchasers if Sony and MS can release some more concrete info by that time.

I think they’d be better off trying a near global launch and drip feed of stock to maintain a sold-out hype factor. Don’t know how far off the stock and maintenance of stock levels they are though.

#34

Ireland Michael
31/08/12, 3:15 pm

@32 Nintendo developed a shittonne of shovelware for the Wii. However many great games they might have released on the console, this is simply undeniable. They were pretty much single handedly responsible for the insane amount of shovelware that appeared on the machine, due to their constant promotion of all these “non-game” games.

#35

Deacon
31/08/12, 3:25 pm

Well I’ve learnt two things today. (1) I’m a huge bigot (I already kinda knew that) and (2) y’all are whiter than white. I’m not trying to build rep here, just being honest.

#36

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 3:31 pm

#34, i agree, but i can guarantee you that the great games outweights the bad, and even the games that you can consider shovelware on their part, like wii music, wii sports, etc are with better quality and/or at least work properly compare to the third party shovelware IMHO, and for that i think third parties are the only responsible for the wii shovelware not nintendo, they have no excuse for broken shovelware games, they at the least would developed them in order to play properly.

#37

DrDamn
31/08/12, 3:37 pm

@36
I would never consider Wii Sports as shovelware. It offered great gameplay and sold the machine. What was disappointing is that not many titles lived up to the promise Wii Sports showed. It helped define what was shovelware in a sense.

#38

OrbitMonkey
31/08/12, 3:39 pm

@26, Yes, you have certainly never shown distaste to others, who happen to have a different opinion over a videogame… Not you, no sir.

#39

Ireland Michael
31/08/12, 3:39 pm

@36 It doesn’t change the fact that the shovelware exists, and there was a shittonne of it. You’re being way too much of a fanboy right now. You can’t even admit that Nintendo did do something good.

“even the games that you can consider shovelware on their part, like wii music, wii sports, etc are with better quality and/or at least work properly compare to the third party shovelware IMHO,”

Polished or not, a turd is still a turd.

@38 He doesn’t show disdain for people based on person taste in video games. He has just a raging, out of control, berserker raging superiority complex.

#40

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 3:43 pm

#37 i agree with you, for me did had solid gameplay and demostrated what the machine was about, but like you said it did define to third party what shovelware was, the sad thing is neither of those games came close to wii sports, and in my eyes the third parties did play a big role on that, they have they share of responsability not only nintendo.

#41

DrDamn
31/08/12, 3:43 pm

@39
Everyone knows you can’t polish a turd … but you can roll it in glitter :)

#42

OlderGamer
31/08/12, 3:45 pm

“Yep, I happen to pay particular attention to people who enjoy describing massive amounts of others as being ‘stupid’ based on that those enjoy another kind of entertainment.”

Coming from you DM, that is rich ;)

#43

Da Man
31/08/12, 3:48 pm

TryhardMonkey and Old man, I question intelligence of people choosing obviously inferior things over freely available alternatives.. Surely saying that you’re an idiot for seeking soul in Dom and Maria scene is quite contrary to saying that you’re an idiot for playing Gears of War.

I don’t have to have a superiority complex with people like O’Conner around. They create it themselves.

#44

ManuOtaku
31/08/12, 3:49 pm

#39 Ireland those games do have a target, people that like them and enjoy them, therefore being a shovelware, is in the eyes of the more avid gamers, that people, even if we consider them shovelware, deserve at least playable sholveware tittles, and thats what nintendo did comparing with the third parties that did do not

And If this thinking makes me a fanboy ok, i dont have qualms with that, i think that was a certainty right now, but at least you dont see me constantly attacking the other two consoles, dimishing their values, like most other fanboys do.

#45

OlderGamer
31/08/12, 3:50 pm

“Hardware limitations are what caused third party developers to abandon the wii”

I disagree Stretch. The Gamecube, for example was far better tech wise then the PS2. And thrid parties avoided it like the plague. I think it comes down to trying to outsell Nintendo on its own platform, near imposible.

I would expect the same type of thing this time around. Lite 3rd party support from the mega 3rd party pubs like Acti and EA. And as time moves forward that lite support will likly fade away to no support.

Unless the new MS/Sony systems hit a dead end in unit sales, I doubt the WiiU will get anything except ports using Xb360 game engines.

#46

Deacon
31/08/12, 3:54 pm

If hypocrisy killed, most of you would be PROPER DEADED.

#47

Da Man
31/08/12, 4:01 pm

Agreed on hypocrisy being widespread, that’s something we can clearly see with Apple topics.

Still not keen on the idea that putting people seeking for soul in computer software and people seeking entertainment in them is the same.

#48

YoungZer0
31/08/12, 4:03 pm

@32:

“Do you really think the Ds And wii, werent not a form of evolution?”

Really, you think a touchpad is revolutionary? And i’m not talking about back then, i’m talking about NOW. Because it is now that Nintendo is having a problem. It is now that the WiiU is not turning anybody’s head. Fool me once and all that.

“but they were clearly an experiment for evolution”

A failed experiment. The casual gamers did catch on, only to leave it later. But the hardcore gamer, the ones Nintendo abandoned, they still want a proper Controller in their hand. WiiU doesn’t even have that.

… oh wait, they have, it’s called Pro Controller and looks an awful lot like the 360 Controller.

Disaster. This really shows just how little respect they have for their hardcore audience. Get it? You are the miniority now. They wouldn’t have made that controller if they thought it would suit anybody. Or, they just want to make more money again. After all this is the reason why we get so many gameboy/DS/3DS Versions. Release the shitty stuff first, make more money.

“they did changed the way we play games”

Not even close. I’m still playing with a controller.

“That is your opinion, i respected it”

No, that’s really not an opinion. It is a fact that Nintendo released a huge amount of shovelware for their console, instead of, you know, proper games.

#49

OrbitMonkey
31/08/12, 4:15 pm

@43, “I question the intelligence of people of people choosing what I believe to be obviously inferior things over freely available alternatives. *fixed*

P.s. Isn’t that what Deacon was doing? Guess it’s not ok for him though eh?

@ OG, you know your pressing his buttons when he invents new names for you ;-)

#50

OlderGamer
31/08/12, 4:20 pm

@OM ;)

YoungZ

“No, that’s really not an opinion. It is a fact that Nintendo released a huge amount of shovelware for their console, instead of, you know, proper games.”

Not so much that Nintendo put out shovelware, but much as 3rd parties did. But that practice isn’t unique to Nintendo, all platforms from xbox to app stores have garbage releases. Also keep in mind one person trash can be another persons gem.

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