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Report – Average SWTOR server has 344 players online at a given time

Thursday, 24th May 2012 20:58 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

Over on the SWTOR forums, a player going by the name Scorpienne has complied a report which features population estimates on the MMO’s servers. According to his estimates, some servers only have, on average, 344 players online at a given time.

His figures also show that the “Total Estimated Worldwide Population of all servers” for the last two weeks stood at 73,693 people logged in at a given time – not how many have logged in during the period. ”

The game has 214 active servers, and The Fatman server in the US, which seems to be the most popular, averaged 2006 players at any given time, while the least populated server Kaas City (PvE US East) had on average 410.

It’s worth noting though, that the figure averages “underestimate the peak population and overestimates the off-peak population.”

Thanks, Shack.

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10 Comments

  1. ManuOtaku

    I wonder how this fares against other big MMO, i mean they are good numbers, or instead bad numbers?

    #1 2 years ago
  2. jdfoster00

    Go free 2 play, or do what Guild Wars does and I may try it… Would boost sales if it took that model

    #2 2 years ago
  3. GrimRita

    Ive just looked at Eve, as I thought about trying it and that has 37k on atm. Eve, runs from just 1 large server, as I understand it.

    Although its all but impossible to tell just how low the populations are, looking at the forums, there are so many threads about mergers and low populations – coming from a triple A game released only in December.

    EA can fart around with the word ‘active’ subs as much as they want because probably 1/4 of those must have purchased the 6 month sub out right thinking they would hang around, then got bored and havent logged in to play but EA still count these in their numbers.

    I think everyone will see just how bad things are at their next conference call since for many the ‘free’ 30 days is running out and the 6 month subs are coming to an end.

    By the time it celebrates its first birthday, I will be amazed if it has more than 500k left playing.Sure, they could survive on that but its far from the WoW beater EA wanted it to be.

    You can check server status here http://www.swtor.com/server-status

    Not a single ‘heavy’ but lots of light for Europe(peak hours now) and only a handful of ‘standards’.

    Fanbois claim that Bioware increased server capacity so this is why we dont see many ‘standards’ or heavy servers any more, which is bull shit.

    Players who pvp struggle to even put together an 8v8 team – the largest pvp group size. Others spend hours trying to put together a group to do the dull flashpoints/raids.

    This is going to sink right to the bottom of the ocean where it belongs because its pure shit

    #3 2 years ago
  4. DSB

    I’d say they’re absolutely horrific numbers. An average raiding guild in WoW would have like 50-100 individual members, and a social guild might be five or six times as big.

    Then again, SWTORs raids are smaller from what I understand, but still, 300 people sounds abysmal.

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Kabby

    At this point in time I’m not sure the average WoW server is much more populated either.

    #5 2 years ago
  6. GrimRita

    @5 How old is WoW now? This game is like only 5 months old and it already requires life support.

    If Bioware wasnt so stupid when designing this game, having x-server support from day 1 could have avoided such a rapid decline. People dont want to play on empty servers.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. Erthazus

    Raids in SWTOR are smaller because of the CRAPPY engine.

    I still remember a demo of this engine, when it suddenly turned off. Lol.

    #7 2 years ago
  8. TheWulf

    Those are tiny numbers. Sub-Champions Online numbers.

    See, Champions Online has an instancing thing where it has 100 people per instance, and if you go to all the popular locations, you could get an idea of how many people were on at any time just by counting. 344 per server is abysmal even by those standards.

    It’s important to keep in mind that Champions Online was and is a very obscure game (they didn’t market it well, and some of their management decisions have been odd to say the least), and the numbers were never that great, really. I liked it, I had fun in it, but it was never a mainstream game.

    What I’m getting at is that if this is true (IF this is true), then that means that TOR is doing worse than Champions Online did.

    Let me repeat that.

    Their 8bn game is doing worse than Champions Online did.

    Ouch.

    :|

    Yeah, I can see EA raping the talent out of Bioware and closing the studio any day, now.

    You also realise that if this is true, it’s going to make EA’s stock plummet too, right? I mean… really plummet. This might even take them partially out of the game.

    They were idiotic to spend 8bn on a Star Wars MMORPG anyway.

    #8 2 years ago
  9. TheWulf

    On a related topic, I guess this is what they get for cloning WoW.

    The problem with cloning WoW is that the people who play WoW are always going to play WoW, they’re going to play WoW forever, whenever they can, as often as they can. Something may pull them away for a month, maybe, but then they’ll be back and as obsessive as ever.

    I couldn’t see anything in WoW that appealed to me, personally as a good game. It just seemed to be a control-freakish grind fest that would ruin your life if you let it. It just doesn’t appeal to me, I don’t like it. But apparently Blizzard is pressing a button in the brains of those people that’s causing a hard addiction.

    WoW players will never stop playing WoW.

    The only way to create an MMORPG these days is to go so far away from WoW that you’re a completely different beast, that you do really nothing like WoW. GW2 scrapped quests, it has dynamic events, and the combat is more like Monster Hunter. It isn’t a grind or gear oriented game. It’s designed so you can reach max level in 120 hours.

    That’s the polar opposite of WoW. That’s what you have to do. The only people who’ll buy your MMO product now fall into one of two groups:

    Group #1: Those who are sick of WoW and want something new (very small).
    Group #2: Those who never liked what WoW was to begin with (very big).

    You have to do it in such a way that it just doesn’t feel like WoW at all, so when you sit down to play it, it’s just a completely different experience. You’re appealing to a different demographic, and that’s how you find success. Because you can’t pull WoW fans away from WoW, they’re attached at the hip.

    This was Bioware’s fatal mistake. They said that ‘if you disobey any of the rules set down by WoW, then you’re an idiot,’ and look where that got them. They were chasing the money of WoW but never did they stop to ask whether it would work, whether they should, and even if they could think of competing. They didn’t realise how rabidly loyal Blizzard’s players are.

    And that was their failure.

    I don’t blame them for it since I’m sure that EA had a hand in this. Greedy old EA. I’m sure there was some suit that demanded that Bioware make it ever more and more like WoW – WoW aesthetically and in regards to the mechanics. So the WoW players come over to have a quick look (for a month), then they all rush back.

    it just doesn’t work.

    I want developers to please realise this. When developers start understanding that Blizzard fans will only play WoW, WoW and only WoW, then you begin to see the state of the market. You need to look at the people who don’t play WoW. They’re looking for the MMORPG for them. Targeting them will bring you in money.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. Scorpienne

    Hi guys. I heard you went over some of my population estimates. For the record, the data is here…

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodFJ2OWN5U0hwaVFBYWdqUUh1WmdZUFE

    You’re welcome to take a look at it firsthand. If you’d like the guided tour, email me and I can walk you through it.

    The shorter version is that this guy…

    http://inquisitive-myths.blogspot.com/2012/05/population-numbers-behind-server-status.html

    ….wrote a program that alerted him when a server changed status. He then went in and /who-ed that server by level band to get an idea of the number of people on the server. So if a server went from light to standard, he’d /who the server, and found out that the number of people on that server was X. Wash, rinse, repeat, and then he can say with some confidence that the # of people on a just-turned-standard server was between 500 and 1,500. The spread may come from a few different things…

    1) People logging on and off as he takes the time to census the server.

    2) Different servers may have different (BW-determined) values for standard, (500 is standard on X server, 1,500 is standard on Y server.)

    3) BW may have changed the capacity of the servers (500 is standard on X server last month, 1,500 is standard on X server this month.)

    So if you look at his data, you might estimate that…

    Light is less than 500 logins.

    Medium is from about 500 to 1,500 logins.

    Standard is from about 1500 to 2,250-2,500 logins (let’s call that 2,375).

    Heavy is from about 2,250-2,500 (let’s call that 2,375) to 3,000 logins.

    Full is greater than 3,000 logins.

    We know and love http://www.torstatus.net, right? They report a value they call ø, which is the 2 week average population index, sampled every hour, where 1 is light, 2 is standard and so on.

    So we know what the population levels mean in terms of logins… and we know the average population levels for all servers… combine in a spreadsheet, and there you go! :-)

    For my analysis, I assume that…
    Light = 250 logins (average of 0 and 500)
    Medium = 1000 logins (average of 500 and 1,500)
    Standard = 1937.5 logins (average of 1,500 and 2,375)
    Heavy = 2687.5 logins (average of 2,375 and 3,000)

    If a server has ø less than 1, it’s that ø value x 250. So for The Defenestrator with a phi of 0.99, I can say that the average number of simultaneous concurrent logins is probably a hair under 250 logins.

    If a server has ø between 1 and 2, it gets 250 logins PLUS (ø-1)x 1,000 logins. For my server, Sanctum of the Exalted with a ø of 1.09, that’s 250 + (0.09×1000) logins or about 340 logins.

    If a server has ø between 2 and 3, it gets 250 logins PLUS 1000 logins PLUS (ø-2)x 1,937.5 logins. For the Fatman with a ø of 2.47, that’s 250 + 1000 + (0.47×1,937.5) logins or about 2,160 logins.

    The trick here is realizing that this is based on a 14 day average status, so that’s dead slack times and peak times. It also doesn’t get at subscriber numbers. For instance, a measurement at noon might only count the stay-at-home parents, a few folks taking a sick day, and some retired folks. A measurement at 3 in the morning might only count the people that work 2nd shift, and the real late night crowd. The average number of logins might be the same at the two measurement times, but it’s two *completely different* groups of people, so it underestimates the number of subscribers by 50%. However, it still gives you an idea of how many people might be around to group with, PVP with, or buy auctions on the GTN.

    It’s sort of like taking a picture of a stadium every day for a month and counting the number of people in the stadium. Some days it’s just a cleaning crew. Some days it’s a few people for practice. Some days it’s packed full for the championship game. Maybe you have some people that are there for every game. Maybe some folks only come once or twice a season to watch their favorite out of town team. Maybe some folks only come to day games because they work third shift. You might know the average number of people in the stadium, but that’s a small fraction of the total number of people who’ve been in the stadium. It’s imperfect information, but it does allow you to compare stadiums so you can choose where to set up your beer stand.

    As a further analysis, I keep careful info on my own server.
    Survey here… http://www.thethirteenthlegion.torportal.com/ click SURVEY on the top right
    Data here… https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aregkvys5QFodDlvU05lQ3o2S3ZrYU9SYjRwM29OSnc#gid=0
    Analysis here… http://i1204.photobucket.com/albums/bb420/scorpienne/General%20SWTOR%20Screenshots/rep_imp_ratio_1to50unpaired.jpg

    So I can say with a fair degree of certainty that Sanctum might have an average pop of 340 people as a 24hr average over the last two weeks, but that there are 600-1,000 people on during peak hours.

    The only real way to get at these demographics is for BW to release their data, but I don’t know if they are willing or able to do so. The next best way is go in and /who the server a bunch, but I don’t have time for that. This analysis is a shortcut to get at that data without nearly as much work. I hope I’ve been clear where I’m making assumptions and what those assumptions are. If you’ve got a better analysis, or a way to refine some of these assumptions, I’d love to know about it.

    Paige

    aka Scorpienne

    #10 2 years ago

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