Michael Pachter has taken to NeoGAF to shed more light on his keynote during the fourth annual Ayzenberg A-List Summit 2012 where he said he felt “Nintendo is in disarray,” and that the firm has “completely blown the Wii U by not telling people what the price is going to be.”
During his speech he also said: “It’s going to launch at $249 because it has to. I think they’re dead anyway because Xbox with Kinect will be priced below that by the time they launch. Wii was a bubble and that the Wii bubble has burst.”
“My speech was about the potential for growth of social gaming,” he said. “The Wii U comment was in response to a question about the potential for the Wii U.
“I believe that a large portion of the Wii audience comprised casual gamers – those who bought one or two games a year the first two years, then put the Wii aside – and that those casual gamers moved on to another platform. The “other” platform may have been Facebook games, smart phone games, tablet games, or one of the other consoles, but once they moved on, they are not likely to come back.
“At the same time, I believe that the growth of smart phones and tablets has attracted many potential dedicated handheld game customers, and these people also are unlikely to come back to either 3DS or PS Vita.”
Because of this, Pachter feels the market for the Wii U will consist of “half of the market for the Wii” with Microsoft and Sony competing for a portion of that if Wii U “is priced too high.”
“I think that the dedicated handheld market is permanently impacted by smart phones and tablets, and think that Nintendo’s addressable market is probably also half of its former market,” he continued.
“Nintendo is in disarray because they waited too long to launch the Wii U. I know that this sounds like sour grapes because they didn’t launch the Wii HD in 2009 or 2010 as I ‘predicted’ – they should have, and because they didn’t, the decline in Wii and DS hardware and software sales drove them into generating losses.”
Pachter said when a company reports losses, its worth drops in the market’s eyes and a prime example of this is the share price in Nintendo falling by 80% in the last few years, while the market has” appreciated over the same period.”
“I’m paid to advise investors, and none have made a profit owning Nintendo stock,” he said. “I don’t think that many will make a profit over the next few years, because I don’t think Nintendo’s strategy will return them to profitability.
“If the context above infuriates you, go back to school and pay attention, then read it again,” he concluded – but with a smiley face attached.
You can read the entire thread through the link.
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