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Analyst predicts Vita will sell 12.4 million units this year

Thursday, 23rd February 2012 19:29 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

US marketing research firm Strategy Analytics predicts Vita will sell 12.4 million units in 2012, but only if given a price drop by Sony.

The firm figures Vita sales could hit somewhere around $2.2 billion but the firm’s senior analyst Jia Wu said the big number still wouldn’t be enough to dig Sony out of its current financial hole, despite the handheld being an all-in-one entertainment device – minus being a phone of course.

“The real value of the PlayStation Vita is its drive for content revenue growth and its strategic position in Sony’s entertainment ecosystem,” he told the Guardian. “The PlayStation Store will have a vital role in selling games, videos and other content through its online access.

“Crucially the cross-platform availability of content will also boost Sony’s position in competition with giants Apple, Samsung and Microsoft. Sony can leverage its console gaming business, which Apple and Samsung do not have, to build its online content cloud.

“Despite the popularity of Xbox 360, Microsoft lacks a serious portable console and mobile gaming device. So with PlayStation Vita, Sony further strengthens its brand, device competition and future content reach – even if the console hardware itself will not generate much profit.”

Wu said the biggest threat to Vita’s success are smartphones and in order for Sony “to survive the march of smartphone’s entering the casual gaming space,” the firm needs to “achieve the Holy Grail of inventing innovative new gameplay” while investing in exclusive content and dropping the price in order to move units – like Nintendo did with 3DS, a console which has shifted over 15 million units since February 2011.

Vita is now available worldwide.

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15 Comments

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  1. Psychotext

    Seems very unlikely without a 3DS style price cut.

    #1 2 years ago
  2. Gama_888

    @1, While i dont always agree with what most analysts say (because 8/10 times i just think there stating the obvious)
    These guys are are in a better position to predict than you mate.

    Im eagerly anticipating the second weeks sales, i think in its first week it could sell about a mill worldwide, They were sold out in Australia and seems like there doing well in all the other territories.

    Only time will tell i guess :)

    #2 2 years ago
  3. Psychotext

    I’m actually pretty good at predicting… and trust me, they really aren’t any better placed than your average well informed armchair analyst… at least not at this stage in the life of a console.

    You’ve only got to look at their previous predictions to see that: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Analyst_predictions

    Especially with gold such as…

    http://images.wikia.com/vgsales/images/9/93/ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif

    or

    http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20080416075349/vgsales/images/a/a5/Screen_digest_2011_forecast.gif

    or

    http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20081215230512/vgsales/images/b/b9/Isuppli_feb_2008_forecast.jpg

    Not to mention things like Pachter and his Wii HD predictions and others stating that there would be no next gen after the 360 / PS3 / Wii etc etc etc.

    There are literally hundreds of them too choose from. Nostradamus had a better hit rate.

    #3 2 years ago
  4. Gama_888

    @3 Now that i like, backing up your comment with some articles, Good lad ;)

    Either way i am hopeful for Vita, Perhaps 12 mill is a little over the top, But i think it could sell between 6-8 mill. If all goes well

    Second week sales are the most important though, thats when we’ll find out if vita has consistency, If there’s a huge drop like there was in the Japanese market, no doubt Sony will rush to drop the price like Ninty did.

    #4 2 years ago
  5. Psychotext

    It’ll be interesting, that’s for sure… but they need to so something about Japan, and quickly because that’s where the PSP was strongest and they really can’t afford to do without it if they want Vita to be a success.

    #5 2 years ago
  6. poketrainer

    Yea, no way without a price drop. I’m calling 5-6 million worldwide tops.

    #6 2 years ago
  7. absolutezero

    HHHMMM I THINK IT WILL SELL NUMBERS. THAT NUMBER MIGHT BE POSITIVE IN COMPARISON TO SOMETHING AND NEGATIVE COMPARED TO SOMETHING ELSE.

    FASCINATING.

    #7 2 years ago
  8. Dannybuoy

    I’m buying 7 just to do my bit

    #8 2 years ago
  9. Dragon246

    Price cut will certainly sell more units but it would definitely be the last option sony will look to only if all other options fail.
    Also price cut IS NOT necessary for a surge in sales. People ALWAYS buy things that offer good value for money, vita does that. It clearly deserves the price tag.
    Believe me ,there is ONLY one sure shot way of selling more console hardware that is MORE GAMES. There is no reason why it cannot do 3DS numbers without price cut if games are available.
    WHO DOES NOT WANT TO PLAY BIOSHOCK VITA? It cannot happen on 3DS and it still sold 15 million in 1 year.
    @Poketrainer, It will definitely sell MORE THAN 5-6 million units. You can take my word on that for sure.

    #9 2 years ago
  10. Psychotext

    “WHO DOES NOT WANT TO PLAY BIOSHOCK VITA?”

    Me? I have a perfectly good home console for that sort of thing. I like my portable games to be bitesize, and certainly not story driven.

    #10 2 years ago
  11. Dragon246

    @Psychotext, my problem is that even though I have a ps3 most of the times I am not in front of a tv . So I miss playing story driven gameplay. That is why I want vita. It is something that no other handheld provides. Sony is also targeting gamers like me with vita, so I like it.

    #11 2 years ago
  12. OlderGamer

    Not to beat a dead horse, but PT just hit the nail on the head. Well, several different nails, but still .

    And Dragon, you have to ask yourself, do you think there are more people like you that want full fledge console style gaming on the go or are there more people that aren’t on the go to play games and as such they are perfectly happy with smaller bitesized pick up and forget about them games while killing a few mins somewhere?

    Liking Vita doesn’t make you foolish, not at all. But thinking that something like Vita is going to changes the way other people do things would be. And I know your not saying that. But some folks are acting like the PS4 just launched.

    Vita is a handheld in an already very crowded market. Its expensive, its games are expensive. It doesn’t send/recieve phone calls. It doesn’t text like a smart phone does. For most people it won’t be able to replace what they currently use because it is a different kind of device.

    #12 2 years ago
  13. Dragon246

    @OlderGamer, exactly. The one feature I miss most is call feature. If vita had that then not only it could have attracted more people but also had a better place in the market. My needs are peculiar and of course many do not share the same needs. I sure hope it sells well not because its a sony product but because it fulfills my needs and if it does not succeed then there very well be no successor to vita.

    #13 2 years ago
  14. polygem

    i don´t play games on the go often. i find that stressfull. i prefer reading a newspaper or listen to music when in the bus or the train. sometimes i play on really long train rides but if i do i prefer smaller games with no real story, games i can save and quit and start again just where i left them.
    i love to play handhelds at home though, or when i am in a hotel. so the vita is kinda tempting but atm i really do not need it, the 3ds is a pretty nice device too. i can understand dragons argument. there is something very cool in playing full blown aaa story driven games in your bed on a handheld, but then again: in just a few months there will be the wiiu which will let you do just that and more…..then it´s face to face handheld only competition again. i really wish sony all the best with the vita (though i hate sonys general marketing atm), but in the long run i think they WONT fail with the vita like they kinda did with the psp. it was awesome in the launch year but then it felt to sleep while the ds train went faster and faster. let´s just hope this wont happen to the vita again. nintendo will have the upper hand in the handheld biz again in the long run though anway i believe. i personally will wait and see. if there will be a drastic pricedrop for the vita itself and the memory cards, or some decent bundles i might join. i don´t think it´s a bad device, not at all, sony makes some great hardware stuff, and maybe i can finally enjoy sony branded games more, because i can get rid of the ds controller which i always personally hated. but atm i can´t see a huge market for it after the hype of new tech calmed down. i think the japanese sales are a good indicator for it. sony is targeting the western market with the vita more agressiveley obviously and a cod go will prolly sell insaneley….but that´s not for me…ah speculation….we´ll see.

    #14 2 years ago
  15. mojo

    12 million would be a rather success i guess.
    not sold on zthese figures as of yet, although it certainly has the potential.
    Im also intrigued to get the vita sooner or later..

    about the call feature:
    isnt Skype on the pipeline for vita?
    u can use skype like a normal phone number, call and be called from any real phone aout there. so i guess that does the trick.

    #15 2 years ago