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Analyst predicts Vita will sell 12.4 million units this year

Thursday, 23 February 2012 19:29 GMT By Stephany Nunneley

US marketing research firm Strategy Analytics predicts Vita will sell 12.4 million units in 2012, but only if given a price drop by Sony.

The firm figures Vita sales could hit somewhere around $2.2 billion but the firm’s senior analyst Jia Wu said the big number still wouldn’t be enough to dig Sony out of its current financial hole, despite the handheld being an all-in-one entertainment device – minus being a phone of course.

“The real value of the PlayStation Vita is its drive for content revenue growth and its strategic position in Sony’s entertainment ecosystem,” he told the Guardian. “The PlayStation Store will have a vital role in selling games, videos and other content through its online access.

“Crucially the cross-platform availability of content will also boost Sony’s position in competition with giants Apple, Samsung and Microsoft. Sony can leverage its console gaming business, which Apple and Samsung do not have, to build its online content cloud.

“Despite the popularity of Xbox 360, Microsoft lacks a serious portable console and mobile gaming device. So with PlayStation Vita, Sony further strengthens its brand, device competition and future content reach – even if the console hardware itself will not generate much profit.”

Wu said the biggest threat to Vita’s success are smartphones and in order for Sony “to survive the march of smartphone’s entering the casual gaming space,” the firm needs to “achieve the Holy Grail of inventing innovative new gameplay” while investing in exclusive content and dropping the price in order to move units – like Nintendo did with 3DS, a console which has shifted over 15 million units since February 2011.

Vita is now available worldwide.

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15 Comments

  1. Psychotext

    Seems very unlikely without a 3DS style price cut.

    #1 3 years ago
  2. Gama_888

    @1, While i dont always agree with what most analysts say (because 8/10 times i just think there stating the obvious)
    These guys are are in a better position to predict than you mate.

    Im eagerly anticipating the second weeks sales, i think in its first week it could sell about a mill worldwide, They were sold out in Australia and seems like there doing well in all the other territories.

    Only time will tell i guess :)

    #2 3 years ago
  3. Psychotext

    I’m actually pretty good at predicting… and trust me, they really aren’t any better placed than your average well informed armchair analyst… at least not at this stage in the life of a console.

    You’ve only got to look at their previous predictions to see that: http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Analyst_predictions

    Especially with gold such as…

    http://images.wikia.com/vgsales/images/9/93/ProjectedConsoleChart_v1_460x323.gif

    or

    http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20080416075349/vgsales/images/a/a5/Screen_digest_2011_forecast.gif

    or

    http://images2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20081215230512/vgsales/images/b/b9/Isuppli_feb_2008_forecast.jpg

    Not to mention things like Pachter and his Wii HD predictions and others stating that there would be no next gen after the 360 / PS3 / Wii etc etc etc.

    There are literally hundreds of them too choose from. Nostradamus had a better hit rate.

    #3 3 years ago
  4. Gama_888

    @3 Now that i like, backing up your comment with some articles, Good lad ;)

    Either way i am hopeful for Vita, Perhaps 12 mill is a little over the top, But i think it could sell between 6-8 mill. If all goes well

    Second week sales are the most important though, thats when we’ll find out if vita has consistency, If there’s a huge drop like there was in the Japanese market, no doubt Sony will rush to drop the price like Ninty did.

    #4 3 years ago
  5. Psychotext

    It’ll be interesting, that’s for sure… but they need to so something about Japan, and quickly because that’s where the PSP was strongest and they really can’t afford to do without it if they want Vita to be a success.

    #5 3 years ago
  6. poketrainer

    Yea, no way without a price drop. I’m calling 5-6 million worldwide tops.

    #6 3 years ago
  7. absolutezero

    HHHMMM I THINK IT WILL SELL NUMBERS. THAT NUMBER MIGHT BE POSITIVE IN COMPARISON TO SOMETHING AND NEGATIVE COMPARED TO SOMETHING ELSE.

    FASCINATING.

    #7 3 years ago
  8. Dannybuoy

    I’m buying 7 just to do my bit

    #8 3 years ago
  9. Dragon246

    Price cut will certainly sell more units but it would definitely be the last option sony will look to only if all other options fail.
    Also price cut IS NOT necessary for a surge in sales. People ALWAYS buy things that offer good value for money, vita does that. It clearly deserves the price tag.
    Believe me ,there is ONLY one sure shot way of selling more console hardware that is MORE GAMES. There is no reason why it cannot do 3DS numbers without price cut if games are available.
    WHO DOES NOT WANT TO PLAY BIOSHOCK VITA? It cannot happen on 3DS and it still sold 15 million in 1 year.
    @Poketrainer, It will definitely sell MORE THAN 5-6 million units. You can take my word on that for sure.

    #9 3 years ago
  10. Psychotext

    “WHO DOES NOT WANT TO PLAY BIOSHOCK VITA?”

    Me? I have a perfectly good home console for that sort of thing. I like my portable games to be bitesize, and certainly not story driven.

    #10 3 years ago
  11. Dragon246

    @Psychotext, my problem is that even though I have a ps3 most of the times I am not in front of a tv . So I miss playing story driven gameplay. That is why I want vita. It is something that no other handheld provides. Sony is also targeting gamers like me with vita, so I like it.

    #11 3 years ago
  12. OlderGamer

    Not to beat a dead horse, but PT just hit the nail on the head. Well, several different nails, but still .

    And Dragon, you have to ask yourself, do you think there are more people like you that want full fledge console style gaming on the go or are there more people that aren’t on the go to play games and as such they are perfectly happy with smaller bitesized pick up and forget about them games while killing a few mins somewhere?

    Liking Vita doesn’t make you foolish, not at all. But thinking that something like Vita is going to changes the way other people do things would be. And I know your not saying that. But some folks are acting like the PS4 just launched.

    Vita is a handheld in an already very crowded market. Its expensive, its games are expensive. It doesn’t send/recieve phone calls. It doesn’t text like a smart phone does. For most people it won’t be able to replace what they currently use because it is a different kind of device.

    #12 3 years ago
  13. Dragon246

    @OlderGamer, exactly. The one feature I miss most is call feature. If vita had that then not only it could have attracted more people but also had a better place in the market. My needs are peculiar and of course many do not share the same needs. I sure hope it sells well not because its a sony product but because it fulfills my needs and if it does not succeed then there very well be no successor to vita.

    #13 3 years ago
  14. polygem

    i don´t play games on the go often. i find that stressfull. i prefer reading a newspaper or listen to music when in the bus or the train. sometimes i play on really long train rides but if i do i prefer smaller games with no real story, games i can save and quit and start again just where i left them.
    i love to play handhelds at home though, or when i am in a hotel. so the vita is kinda tempting but atm i really do not need it, the 3ds is a pretty nice device too. i can understand dragons argument. there is something very cool in playing full blown aaa story driven games in your bed on a handheld, but then again: in just a few months there will be the wiiu which will let you do just that and more…..then it´s face to face handheld only competition again. i really wish sony all the best with the vita (though i hate sonys general marketing atm), but in the long run i think they WONT fail with the vita like they kinda did with the psp. it was awesome in the launch year but then it felt to sleep while the ds train went faster and faster. let´s just hope this wont happen to the vita again. nintendo will have the upper hand in the handheld biz again in the long run though anway i believe. i personally will wait and see. if there will be a drastic pricedrop for the vita itself and the memory cards, or some decent bundles i might join. i don´t think it´s a bad device, not at all, sony makes some great hardware stuff, and maybe i can finally enjoy sony branded games more, because i can get rid of the ds controller which i always personally hated. but atm i can´t see a huge market for it after the hype of new tech calmed down. i think the japanese sales are a good indicator for it. sony is targeting the western market with the vita more agressiveley obviously and a cod go will prolly sell insaneley….but that´s not for me…ah speculation….we´ll see.

    #14 3 years ago
  15. mojo

    12 million would be a rather success i guess.
    not sold on zthese figures as of yet, although it certainly has the potential.
    Im also intrigued to get the vita sooner or later..

    about the call feature:
    isnt Skype on the pipeline for vita?
    u can use skype like a normal phone number, call and be called from any real phone aout there. so i guess that does the trick.

    #15 3 years ago

Comments are now closed on this article.

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  • Visual upgrade for Wasteland 2, improved modding tools in the works

    A visual upgrade and improved mod tools are in the works for Wasteland 2, according to a blog post from inXile Entertainment. The upgrades will come about as the game’s codebase is migrated from Unity 4.5 to Unity 5. “A major benefit of moving to Unity 5 is that 5 will include many of the […]

  • Battlefield Hardline brings “Hollywood crime drama” to single-player campaign

    In the fifth developer diary for Battlefield Hardline, the team discusses how it’s bringing “Hollywood crime drama” to the shooter’s single-player campaign. The video was released a couple of days ago, so apologies are in order if this has been posted already, but I promise I searched the site and never found it. Visceral Games […]

  • Masquerada: Songs and Shadows is a pause for tactics isometric RPG coming in 2016

    Masquerada: Songs and Shadows is a 2.5D isometric RPG, built in the vein of Baldur’s Gate and Dragon Age in the works at Withing Hour Studios. The game allows the player to pause combat to plan party tactics. “Set in the Venetian-inspired fantasy city of Ombre where rare masks are the key to casting magic, […]

  • Underworld Ascendant surpasses Kickstarter goal

    Underworld Ascendant which was launched on Kickstarter earlier this month, has met its  $600,000 funding goal. With six days left 10,786 backers pledged $610,541 In light of being funded, the team has also switched up the stretch goals as bit, as you can see in the image below. The studio, OtherSide Entertainment, is fronted by Paul Neurath, […]

  • Latest Evolve patch fixes progress and save game data loss on Xbox One

    A patch for Evolve has been released on Xbox One which fixes lost progress and save game data users had reported. The patch also fixes an issue with shadows and flashlight, makes incremental improvements to matchmaking, invites, and rejoining, and there were progressions balance changes. “The issue with lost progress and saved games was mostly […]

  • Online servers for Ridge Racer Unbounded shut down in Europe

    Online functionality for Ridge Racer Unbounded is no longer available, Namco Bandai Europe has announced. Solo mode and the track editor are still playable, minus the sharing options. Ridge Racer Unbounded was released on PC, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 in March 2013. Thanks, MCV.

  • OlliOlli will be a cross-buy title on 3DS and Wii U

    Curve Digital has announced OlliOlli will be a cross-buy title when it releases on 3DS and Wii U. The Roll7 title will be the first third-party title to offer the functionality on the systems. OllliOlli will be released on the eShop March 5 The game launches on Nintendo’s eShop on March 5th, followed by Xbox […]

  • Darkbeast electrifies latest Bloodborne video

    The latest Bloodborne video shows off another monster in the game. This one is Darkbeast and he’s full of electricity. The video is the last of IGN’s month-long coverage of the title.

  • Future Assassin’s Creed games will have greater focus on modern timeline

    Ubisoft plans to focus more on modern timelines in future Assassin’s Creed games, the company suggested during its latest community livestream. During the Twitch stream, one of the lead writers for the Assassin’s Creed series, Darby McDevitt, said the modern timeline for Brotherhood’s town of Monteriggioni could inspire future development. “That only came about because […]

  • Fruit Ninja Kinect 2 is coming to Xbox One next month

    Halfbrick has announced Fruit Ninja Kinect 2 for Xbox One will release next month. The mobile title made its way onto Xbox 360 garnering 1 million downloads as of March 2012. It has a new multiplayer mode for up to four players with Battle and Party modes along with a new progression system. An announcement […]

  • New GTA 5 PC screens – shit the bed!

    Rockstar has pumped out 15 new screens for the PC version of Grand Theft Auto 5. Don’t touch them, because they’re electric. And if you touch them, you’ll get shocked. The PC version of GTA 5 has been delayed until April 14, which both sucks and blows. BUT! There’s a new trailer coming between now […]

  • Sony Japan accidentally erases 20th Anniversary PS4 contest entries

    Sony Japan has accidentally erased all information obtained from PlayStation owners who entered to win a 20th Anniversary PlayStation 4. Those who purchased PlayStation 3, PS4, Vita or Vita TV between December 4 – January 15 were handed a calendar with a code which entered them into the contest. Somehow, all data collected from the […]

  • Hearthstone datamine suggests Blackrock Mountain expansion on the way

    Hearthstone’s next update may be based on World of Warcraft’s Molten Core raid, if datamined information posted on Hearthpwn is spot-on. According to files mined from the latest patch, three new cosmetic card backs are on the way, one of which is called Molten Core. The data suggests that pre-ordering the Blackrock Mountain expansion will […]

  • Using Battlefield Hardline single-player gadgets increases your metagame rewards

    Gadgets contained in Battlefield Hardline’s campaign mode have been detailed, and each provides the player with various ways in which to solve crimes. According to design director Scott Warner, one way to “diffuse” a conflict when confronted with criminal activity is to flash your badge and ordering the criminal to freeze. Putting your gun on […]

  • Mortal Kombat X video is all about story mode, new characters

    After promising a new Mortal Kombat X reveal “soon”, NetherRealm Studios has made good on said promise by releasing the story trailer. The video shows parts of the story mode featuring Mileena, which takes place 25 years after the events of 2011′s Mortal Kombat. Outworld has become a larger threat and new fighters joining the […]

  • Destiny’s shotgun and pulse rifle buffs mean it’s time to rethink your load-out

    Destiny’s most-ignored weapons got major boosts this week. It’s time to start thinking about how to work them into your set-up. Even if you’re used to using scout rifles and sniper rifles as a general loud-out (neither class was touched by 1.1.1), the buffs to pulse rifles and shotguns should make you rethink your contextual […]

  • Battlefield Bad Company 2: five years later, what did it do so right?

    It’s been five years since the release of Battlefield Bad Company 2. What did the much-loved entry in the franchise do for the Battlefield series? Westie’s played Battlefield Bad Company 2 for over 1,260 hours on PS3 and PC. That’s dedication. In his latest video he discusses the stand out moments from a FPS classic, […]

  • War is hell in this Zombie Army Trilogy gameplay trailer

    Here’s five minutes of headshots, shambling zombies and an undead Hitler from Rebellion’s upcoming Zombie Army Trilogy. The Sniper Elite spin-off arrives on PS4, PC and Xbox One March 6 and includes three games (obviously) and a new Horde mode.

  • Titan Souls releases on PS4, Vita, PC on April 14

    Ace indie giant-slayer Titan Souls will be released on PS4, Vita and PC on April 14. Publisher Devolver confirmed the date to Eurogamer. Those of us in Europe will have to wait until a day later for release. Titan Souls is a tough-as-nails indie game where you have one life to slay a giant enemy. […]

  • Destiny weekly update: lowdown on Inferno Crucible, Vault Transfer improvements

    Destiny’s weekly update has made some pretty significant changes – let Arekkz Gaming take you through them. Bungie has revealed the first release date for the new Inferno Crucible mode, and made it a lot easier to access your vault. You should subscribe to Arekkz Gaming. It will improve your life.

  • Destiny: Xur location and inventory Feb 27, 28

    It’s Xursday again – what treats does he have for you this week? He’s in the North Tower, to the right of the Stranger’s room. Let’s take a look at the latest weapons and gear from your favourite Destiny trader. No Backup Plans [Titan Gauntlets] – 13SC ATS/8 Arachnid [Hunter Helmet] – 13SC Heart of […]

  • Battlefield Hardline will be stable on PC at launch, Visceral assures

    PC format is “by far the best gaming platform around,” says Hardline producer. “We’re doing what we can to take advantage of people’s different system with the graphics, framerate, controls, etc. We’re not just porting it over.” Battlefield Hardline developer Visceral is reassuring players that there will not be a repeat of the disastrous Battlefield […]

  • Win Pneuma: Breath of Life for Xbox One

    We have 10 download codes for new indie puzzler Pneuma: Breath of Life for Xbox One to give away. The be in with a chance of winning a code, just enter your details below and we’ll pull the winners from the hat on Monday March 2nd, after 2pm GMT. Pneuma: Breath of Life is a […]

  • Life is Strange Episode 2 delayed

    Life is Strange Episode 2 won’t make its expected release date. The first Life is Strange episode released on January 30, and we had expected the second to follow on March 13. Square Enix has since confirmed to Destructoid that the next chapter won’t make its release date. There’s been no word of the new […]

  • Mortal Kombat X: which character will be revealed tomorrow?

    Mortal Kombat X director Ed Boon is teasing a new character reveal. During today’s Mortal Kombat X livestream, NetherRealm said that a new character would be revealed “very soon”. Boon followed up with this teasing tweet suggesting the reveal will occur tomorrow: Very soon? As in tomorrow? :/ — Ed Boon (@noobde) February 26, 2015 […]

  • Halo played by Twitch is an exercise in great patience

    TwitchPlaysHalo is ridiculous. Halo: Combat Evolved is the latest game to be sucked into the “TwitchPlays” phenomenon, and the results are somewhat painful to spectate. If you’re not familiar with the setup, which debuted with TwitchPlaysPokemon, the game accepts commands from the channels’ chat stream. Although it doesn’t have the strategic RPG elements of Pokemon, […]

  • Gold Amiibo sold out, selling at five times RRP on auction sites

    Gold Mario Amiibo are expected to sell for pretty astounding profits on eBay and other auction sites. The Walmart-exclusive Gold Mario Amiibo is already completely sold out. Plenty of people managed to snaffle them to resell, though. There are now dozens of listings on eBay and other auction sites. One of the average asking prices […]

  • Canadian new game prices jump to $75

    Canadian gamers are in for an unpleasant price hike. As spotted by HardcoreGamer, the local Canadian branches of Amazon and EB Games have raised the prices of upcoming games to CAD$75. The CAD$5 increasing comes within a year of prices hitting the CAD$70 point. CAD$75 (£38/€53) currently exchanges for $60, the standard US pricing. The […]

  • New Xenoblade Chronicles X footage shows weather, day-night cycle

    The latest Xenoblade Chronicles X footage shows off a gloriously beautiful world. Xenoblade Chronicles X is Monolith Soft’s first solo Wii U game, and the developer is clearly enjoying being able to build a big open world with all the features we’ve come to expect. Missed the whole Xenoblade thing? Chronicles X is a sort […]

  • Dead Rising: Watchtower teaser talks up the benefits of Zombrex

    Live-action Dead Rising movie Watchtower is almost upon us. Dead Rising: Watchtower will release on Crackle on March 27, and via other digital distributors thereafter. Enjoy the short teaser below, courtesy of IGN.

  • We Happy Few debut hits you upside the face with a frying pan

    Contrast developer Compulsion Games has revealed its next project – the delightfully creepy-looking We Happy Few. We Happy Few is set in “a drug-fuelled, retrofuturistic city in an alternative 1960s England” where “a plucky bunch of moderately terrible people trying to escape from a lifetime of cheerful denial”. Players are tasked with blending in with […]