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Analysts: 8 million-selling Kinect “a surprise to us all,” “premature to say Move is beaten”

Friday, 7th January 2011 09:01 GMT By Johnny Cullen

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EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich and Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter have praised Kinect’s performance following news from CES that it’s shipped 8 million units since its November launch.

Microsoft president Steve Ballmer made the announcement during its CES keynote on Thursday.

Divnich said the popularity of the motion camera was a “surprise”.

“The success of the Kinect was a surprise to us all, and to Microsoft as well,” Divnich told Eurogamer.

“Among all the analysts, I was the most bullish, forecasting 5-6 million in sell-through by the end of the year. While Microsoft announced 8 million in ‘ship-in’, it would imply at least 6.5 million units, surpassing even the most bullish of estimates.”

Pachter added that he was “very surprised” by the figures.

“The Kinect shipment number suggests 7 million sold to consumers. I initially expected 3 million, and was surprised when they forecast 5 million,” he said.

“So I am very surprised by this figure; it is truly impressive.”

But despite Kinect’s success, both Divnich and Pachter weren’t writing off Sony’s PlayStation Move just yet. In fact, Divnich claimed that both Kinect and Move saved what could have been a bad Holiday season for the industry.

“Regardless of which side the gamers take, all should acknowledge that both products played a tremendous role in driving sales and videogame awareness this Holiday season,” he said.

“Even without the official December figures in, I have no doubt in concluding that both the Kinect and Move saved the holiday season from what would have been a disastrous situation of negative dollar comparisons.

“If Nintendo ‘saved’ us in 2008 and 2009, Microsoft and Sony returned that favor in 2010.”

Despite a sales-shipped snafu that overshadowed its announcement, Sony announced in November it had shipped 4.1 million Move units worldwide.

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7 Comments

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  1. LOLshock94

    its not really a surprise since people are more intelligent to see the difference between a wii and playstation move

    #1 4 years ago
  2. Blerk

    I’m curious to know who’s been buying them all. Console sales figures for the Christmas period should also be somewhat interesting in order to gauge just how many people bought a 360 to go with their Kinect.

    #2 4 years ago
  3. NiceFellow

    Very strong sales but I’m still cautious about what I think of as true demand. Microsoft in the US made buying a Kinect bundle very attractive, with aggresive deals and pricing.

    Even if I wasn’t sure about Kinect I’d have bought one of the bundles as you were undeniably getting a great deal.

    For me the question is how much was the true demand for Kinect – i.e. I specifically want Kinect – vs I want a 360 and I don’t mind getting Kinect with it even if just for the cool voice command stuff.

    I think ongoing demand for Kinect titles such as Sports, Joyride, etc. will give a better view of how many active Kinect owners there are vs casual owners who are mostly buying/playing non-Kinect titles.

    I see Move more or less the same way although I think it’s going to be tougher to judge due to the myriad of purchase options and patched titles.

    #3 4 years ago
  4. Erthazus

    I still believe this thing didn’t sold for 7 million. You can’t sell 8 million to the existing Xbox fanbase that is 45 million at best.

    Thats like covering 1/4 of the fanbase about 2 months. It’s fucking impossible to do with current Kinect price.

    Because whats next figure at E3 2011 from MS? Kinect sold for 20 million units?

    #4 4 years ago
  5. Psychotext

    Thought this was quite interesting:

    “Around 60 per cent of Kinect sales were controllers, so those were sold to the installed base. The other 40 per cent were console bundles”

    Pretty balanced sales, though with more picking up the standalone than I would have expected.

    #5 4 years ago
  6. NiceFellow

    @5 I think everyone, including MS themselves, misjudged the uptake from existing owners – that’s why they suddenly adjusted their forecast up as pre-orders started to reveal the true pattern.

    I think that a lot of 360 owners thought Kinect would be interesting as an interface, as something to use with some fun party games with friends and as something that would get interesting hybrid support – i.e. gamepad plus Kinect titles.

    Particularly in US 360 and Live have a lot of loyal, fairly passionate customers, and it would seem they were a lot more willing to spend $125 on what is, at this point, more potential than substance, than everyone thought.

    The 40% or so consoles with Kinect bundled it also helped a lot. I got the impression it was easier to get a Kinect bundle than a standalone 360 in many areas which is why I’m slightly suspicious how much of that was pure Kinect demand and how much was 360 with a Kinect to try it out demand.

    Either way a lot of Kinects have found their way into homes, although I suspect they aren’t all getting lots of use at this stage.

    Outside of the bundled Adventurers sales of individual titles seem to rapidly drop off beyond Kinect Sports down to very low levels for Joyride, etc. by all accounts – so the question now is can the demand sustain itself and will we see lots of titles doing well or most struggling?

    #6 4 years ago
  7. Psychotext

    I think lots of titles doing well is highly unlikely… though Dance Central and Kinect Sports have shown that they have some legs at least.

    Which is good, because they’re easily the best two games at the mo.

    #7 4 years ago