Sections

Pachter: Kinect and Move to hit 8 million in 2010, over 20 million in 2011

Thursday, 2nd December 2010 08:57 GMT By Patrick Garratt

kinectjump

Welcome to the future. It involves waving your arms at your television.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter’s predicted that combined Kinect and Move sales will be in the region of 20-25 million by the end of the next calendar year, but has warned that the introduction of the new hardware will impact software numbers.

“Given recent guidance from Microsoft, it is likely that the two peripherals will have an installed base of 8 million by year-end, and depending upon pricing, we could see an installed base that approaches 20–25 million by year-end 2011,” he said in a note last night.

“These 20–25 million households are likely to buy 2–3 games apiece, resulting in software sales of 40–75 million units and publisher revenues of $1.6–3 billion next year. These sales are not all incremental; clearly, consumers who buy Kinect or Move are console owners, and presumably, they would have bought other games had they not purchased the peripherals.

“We think that the incremental contribution from the two devices will be around $500–800 million in 2011, or around 2.5–4 percent of industry sales next year.”

Microsoft and Sony are currently having a little wank-off about sales numbers for Kinect and Move, with the former saying it had sold 2.5 million units in 25 days.

Sony responded by saying it had sold 4.1 million Move units, but then later revised “sold” to “shipped”.

A month after Move’s September launch, Sony claimed it had sold 1.5 million units in Europe and 1 million in North America.

Microsoft said Kinect had sold 1 million units in its first ten days at retail; the camera launched worldwide in November.

Breaking news

4 Comments

Sign in to post a comment.

  1. Jan

    And here is a guy playing Mario with Kinect I see the future, or do I? :D

    Kinect as a Nintendo controller on the PC
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CTJL5lUjHg

    #1 4 years ago
  2. Erthazus

    The problem is that it lags as shit that is impossible to play any Mario game or platformer and accuracy is essential.

    Until 60 GHZ and better resolution. That cheap web cam can get the FUCK OUT.

    #2 4 years ago
  3. back_up

    Move will do it but kinect will failed

    #3 4 years ago
  4. NiceFellow

    Having tried both, the only one with a future for me at the moment in terms of games is Move, mainly down to playing RE5 and Heavy Rain with it plus Sports Champions.

    Kinect I like in principle but in practice I’ve found:

    1 – some voice command aside the interface stuff while fun is actually too slow. After the initial wow factor wears of holding your hand for 2 seconds to make a selection you can do with a gamepad in less than a second wears off – at least for me. I feel Kinect is in some ways a step back from where we are with fast input as it is attempting to take input in a different direction. I’m interested in that direction, but not until speed and real usability is much better

    2 – again, while fun within what feels like a narrow range of gaming abilities – dancing, simple jump, swing type stuff, I felt like after a while I was hitting a glass ceiling with the device. This may change depending on future titles but right now Kinect, outside of some explicit game types, feels limiting. Joy Ride for example the whole time I felt I should simply be using a gamepad. Using Kinect was for the sake of it and the device was clearly the weaker choice of input device. It is fun with Kinect Sports, etc. but TBH, while the jumping, etc. is fun it just doesn’t feel as good as playing Wii Sports or Sports Champions with a controller.

    3 – while Kinect is fantastic for fittness stuff – I don’t see this as a game. But it is fantastic for it and I will be using it for that for sure.

    So for me, Kinect is for pausing movies, party games and exercise, but not really that great for playing videogames from a broader perspective.

    Move for sure feels like a Wii too (speaking as a three console owner) but while that makes it seem on the surface less interesting than Kinect in actuality I find it means it works better more of the time and with a far broader set of game genres than Kinect.

    I doubt Move will ever be as good for exercise and dancing though.

    Just my feeling on the two devices at the moment. Mind you, as a big film watcher, the voice commands for pause, play, etc. really are great.

    #4 4 years ago