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“Lack of diversity” will push 360 below PS3, says analyst

Sunday, 14th November 2010 12:27 GMT By Joe Anderson

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DFC Intelligence’s David Cole has said global PS3 sales will pass those of Xbox 360 in 2011 because the Microsoft machine “lacked the diversity to appeal to a broader international market.”

Speaking to IndustryGamers, Cole said because Xbox 360 has a focus on shooters more than any other genre, and this, combined with a US focus, will soon see it fall into third place.

“We have been forecasting for the past three years that the PS3 would catch up to the 360 by 2011. I think the big issue is that the 360 has been primarily the platform for FPS games and has lacked the diversity to appeal to a broader international market… mainly Japan and Europe where Sony is very strong. The Xbox 360 was just much stronger in North America than it was globally,” he said.

“The main issue I think is Sony (and also Nintendo) being so strong in Europe and Japan.  I think in terms of doing things differently they should probably have focused more on Europe and just given up on Japan. They would have had a better chance in Europe.”

Kinect has seen Microsoft change its focus somewhat, however Cole doesn’t necessarily see this as being enough to stop Sony from taking second place.

“Going forward I don’t know if there is much they can do. They will try with the Kinect but I don’t see that working. I think the PS3 will soon pass the 360 for good,” he said.

Other analysts contacted by IndustryGamers at least seemed a bit more optimistic when it came to Microsoft’s chances of staving off Sony.

“We do not believe Microsoft has in some way squandered a first to market advantage; particularly when you consider how most game pundits back in the day expected Sony to dominate the next generation,” said Janco Partners’ Mike Hickey.

“Perhaps more important is where we go from here, with no meaningful console introduction in the medium term; we believe Microsoft’s Kinect system is the most identifiable organic installed base accelerator (aside from continued price cuts and/or aggressive promotional bundling), which will likely extend their global lead over Sony’s PS3 console.”

EEDAR’s Jesse Divnich seemed to agree with Hickey. “Nothing went wrong. The achievements of the Xbox 360 are incredible,” he said. “It went from fighting for a distant second place last generation to now being considered one of the healthiest platforms to develop for. The PlayStation 2 outsold the Xbox nearly 7 to 1 in Europe and nearly 40 to 1 in Japan.  In 2010, PlayStation 3 is outselling the Xbox 360 a tad over 1 to 1 in Europe and only about 10 to 1 in Japan.

“For a company that entered the video game space late, going up against two competitors with decades of loyal gamers, Microsoft should be proud of their accomplishments. Any faults to point out would simply be nitpicking.”

Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter also had his say, predicting that Kinect may see Xbox 360 remain in second place for good.

“What did people expect? [Sony] have a huge advantage in Japan, have been roughly equal in Europe and pretty far behind in the US. It is only a matter of time before the lead in Japan erodes the lead in the US. I would NOT say that anything has gone ‘wrong.’

“At the beginning of the cycle, I thought PS3 would win because of greater loyalty in Europe and a stacked deck in Japan. Nintendo surprised me greatly with their phenomenal sales, and after a year or two, I said that I thought Sony would still finish second due to the Japanese advantage. I now think that with Kinect and a pricing advantage, Microsoft might hold them off, and I certainly don’t think that Microsoft has done anything wrong at all.”

Currently the gap between PS3 and 360 is around 3 million units.

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62 Comments

  1. alimokrane

    I seriously doubt there is a lack of variety this generation – It was true last gen but I think 3rd party support has been rather diverse. What MS lacks is a varied 1st Party portfolio. Their first party clearly lacks something like God of War/Heavy Rain/Ico sequels but those titles are hardly hardware sellers.

    on a worldwide basis, the PS3 may be able to catch up but that’s largely due to Japan. When it comes to combined US/EU, the PS3 will NEVER catch up especially with Kinect around

    #1 4 years ago
  2. manamana

    This should generate some traffic ^_^

    #2 4 years ago
  3. MegaGeek1

    “Microsoft has done nothing wrong”, except Kinect.

    #3 4 years ago
  4. Herlock

    “Lack of diversity” will push 360 below PS3, says analyst

    I agree, SCE Worldwide Studios (fps, plateform, survival horror, jrpg, car games, sport games etc…), Second Party and some production (heavy rain, DS) are really great, SCE think games!

    MS has Halo…^^

    #4 4 years ago
  5. Erthazus

    @alimokrane
    “on a worldwide basis, the PS3 may be able to catch up but that’s largely due to Japan. When it comes to combined US/EU, the PS3 will NEVER catch up especially with Kinect around”

    I’m sorry, but in EU it’s already outsold Xbox 360. In Japan PS3 sold only for 5.8 million

    Sony was always strong in EU. It lacks only in US, but they still managed to sell 15 million units, while Xbox 360 with one YEAR advantage sold 25 million.

    #5 4 years ago
  6. freedoms_stain

    @1, individually those titles aren’t Hardware sellers, but the moment The Last Guardian comes out I’m splurging on a PS3 and all those sexy PS3 exclusives I’ve missed and will be able to pick up cheap as fuck.

    #6 4 years ago
  7. Ransom

    Heavy rain a game? Can Heavy rain be considered a game?

    #7 4 years ago
  8. Syrok

    @7: Yes, but feel free to come up with a new category. It doesn’t matter in the end what you call it. ;)

    #8 4 years ago
  9. Kuwabara

    fucking idiots. If the ps3 was release in usa at the same time, it would be ahead of xbox360.

    #9 4 years ago
  10. Psychotech

    @7 technically yes since you must use a controller to experience it .Just because it’s different from other genres and not so different from adventure games doesn’t make it less of a game.

    #10 4 years ago
  11. Ransom

    Well, i prefer games over movies becouse of the interactivity, the only interactivity that Heavy rain have are quick time events that i hate with a passion…even the walking feels scripted.

    I junt can’t get over the “press the right button and your character will stay alive” thing.

    I’m used to Deus ex, where YOU change the story based on the choices that you made during the game, who you trust, who you kill, and the gameplay of the game is exellent. The only “gameplay” that Heavy rain have is, like i said, quick time events.

    But that’s just my opinion…

    #11 4 years ago
  12. Psychotech

    @11 exactly your opinion which doesn’t take away the fact that it is a game in it’s own rights

    #12 4 years ago
  13. Syrok

    “press the right button and your character will stay alive”

    That’s the same in any game, they just don’t display the button. ;)

    I see what you mean though. :)

    #13 4 years ago
  14. Hybridpsycho

    @1

    Actually, PS3 is leading in EU as well. US is where the 360 is strongest. Just wanted to correct that :)

    @10

    I’m not sure it’s the controller that defines what is a game and what’s not :P
    After all, what is a game? I’d define games as interactive experiences, boardgames, consoles, PC…you pick one.

    #14 4 years ago
  15. hitnrun

    @5: Actually, the UK and Dominion countries align much more closely with the US than with Europe. Just look at the weekly and monthly sales charts for the different regions. Anglophones play the same games.

    @9: That’s pretty unlikely. It’s 20 million to 12 million in the US. There have only ever been a handful of months that the PS3 outsold the 360. EDIT: unless you mean because the PS3 would have been able to establish its own multiplayer “society” the way XBL did, then that’s a fair argument, even if it’s doubtful because of the price.

    #15 4 years ago
  16. Robo_1

    Mostly fair comments. Sony dropped the ball with the PS3 launch, MS picked it up and ran with it.

    It is no small achievment what MS have achieved in the console space since they entered, but let’s not forget just how cash rich a company they are, and it’s no exageration to say they bought their way to success.

    None of that should detract from the very real achievments MS have made with Live and the 360 as a whole, but they’ve sailed in on a bed of cash.

    Oh, and I’d hardly class the single biggest defect rate of any console ever launched, and a multi billion dollar repair bill ‘nitpicking’. It cost them my support and I’m sure I’m not alone.

    #16 4 years ago
  17. Quiiick

    … No, you’re not alone. After 3 RRoDs on my 360 and several scratched disks (without moving the box) I had enough.
    The time (2008) was right to buy a PS3 and I never looked back really. Still have my 360 but I don’t buy any new games for it (the only exception was ME2 and I regret this purchase).

    #17 4 years ago
  18. dylanspronck

    I agree. When you see PS3 exclusives like Gran Turismo 5, Uncharted 2, and Killzone 3, you see that there are not only great exclusive shooters, but also adventure games, race simulating games etc. Xbox 360 has a lot of exclusives, but mainly shooters (Halo, GoW, etc.)

    PS VG247.com : Why do you keep using pictures of the old consoles? They both got a redesign and you’re still using old images? It has been 6 months since the Xbox 360 redesign and almost 14 months since the PS3 redesign.

    #18 4 years ago
  19. manamana

    What puzzles me is why analysts often claim that the xbox is “…primarily the platform for FPS games…”. Is it because of XBL? I would rather say that there are more FPS on the PS3.

    Edit: @dylan you mention GT5, UC2 and KZ3 for diversity and then you say XB has got only shooters by mentioning Halo and Gears. Put in Forza and you have nearly the same three picks…

    #19 4 years ago
  20. OrbitMonkey

    @19 I’d say Live has more people playing shooters (millions more?) at any given time, hence the 360 rep. You could argue that xbox brought online fps’s to the casual masses.
    Other Sony exclusives: Little Big Planet, Infamous & Ratchet and Clank.

    #20 4 years ago
  21. stretch215

    In north america, where it is most important, the ps3, is way too far behind to catch up. Not that it matters, I think this story is nothing but flame bait anyways and I don’t think it has anything valuable in it but bait for the resident trolls. C’mon vg let’s not START the flame wars.

    #21 4 years ago
  22. LordCancer

    demon souls. flam3 wars are hard to start. they have been in constant movement since forever.

    #22 4 years ago
  23. itsucks

    too bad Demon Souls 2 is multiplatform. Mhwwwuuuaaaaa.

    Oh Look, it’s EraTWATzus.

    #23 4 years ago
  24. LordCancer

    yeah a game i can actually play on my xbox 360 whooo besides netflix and twitter. god microsoft is so fucking hardcore yo!

    #24 4 years ago
  25. Crysis

    itsucks, Demon’s souls is owned by Sony, if you’re going to be a troll, atleast use facts, retard.

    #25 4 years ago
  26. LordCancer

    sony owns everything including Kuwabara’s child raping penis.

    #26 4 years ago
  27. stretch215

    @19 because the ps3 controller is a clusterfuck when it comes to shooters. People at least want triggers and analog sticks in an ergonomic position. This is the reason I primarily play my 360, I just hate the ps controller. Plus, fps is the most popular genre, xbox is the most popular system, so it makes sense more people are playing fps ON 360.

    #27 4 years ago
  28. LordCancer

    they play more fps? it seems like its two games to me cod and halo. thats all they play year after year just another cod and another halo. micersoft are hardcore yo. no ones makes sequels like they do.

    #28 4 years ago
  29. Crysis

    The general feel & the triggers on the 360 are better imo, but i prefer everything else about the DualShock3 (bumpers, D-pad, buttons, sticks) Sony has always had poor designs for their triggers, my dualshock 2 buttons went inside of the controller :(
    Hopefully next time around, Sony will study the feel of the controller so that they can finally improve it, the dualshock just isn’t conformtable, & while sturdy, feels like it’ll break given enough pressure.
    On a side note, I’m glad that within the past couple of years Sony has gotten their act together with the PS3′s games, & looking at the upcoming title, Sony is the clear winner by miles, MS literally only has 2 notable games (Gears & that Crytek game) which is why i expect a new MS console unviel by 2012 & released by 2013, glad i invested in both conoles though, but i only use my 360 for exclusives & everything else on my PS3 (normally the other way around with multi console owners).

    #29 4 years ago
  30. stretch215

    @29 totally agree. Hopefully the next iteration of ps controllers are more ergonomically designed. Also we NEED at least 2 major consoles to drive competition, without that I think gamers as a whole will suffer.

    #30 4 years ago
  31. LordCancer

    i liked the xbox s controller. id still rather have that though with the black and white buttons swapped for shoulders buttons like they did with the 360. the shape of the 360 controller doesnt feel as good as the xbox s controller.

    #31 4 years ago
  32. stretch215

    @28 both of which are fps, yo.

    #32 4 years ago
  33. LordCancer

    @32 really? hmm, i thought they were action adventure yo. my bad honest.

    #33 4 years ago
  34. stretch215

    @33 :)

    #34 4 years ago
  35. DBZ0wnz

    bye bye x360. :)

    #35 4 years ago
  36. OrbitMonkey

    Talking of controllers has anyone got the black ops controller for the ps3? Is it any good? I really like the Dualshock, but only after I brought trigger guards. They should be part of the design imo.

    #36 4 years ago
  37. Herlock

    @itsucks
    Project Dark is not DS2 ;)

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/gamesblog/2010/oct/28/games-ps3

    #37 4 years ago
  38. onlineatron

    Wrong.

    Shooters are what the public want, not diversity.

    Plus Kinect is already giving the 360 an added buzz, I predict GREAT sales for the console in 2011.

    Right, there’s my prediction, where’s my large sack of money for making ridiculous claims?!

    #38 4 years ago
  39. DaMan

    I disagree with them. Ps3 has an alternative point and click adventure, a level editor game, GT and an yet to be released Ico sequel, both consoles’ libraries are diversive enough. 360 has Fable, Alan Wake, jrpgs, Forza. not that different then.

    besides, it’s not a bad decision to have emphasis on shooters, since that’s was sells millions today.

    #39 4 years ago
  40. aprotosis

    @16
    Of course they bought their way to success. Nintendo and Sega were on a spending spree back in ’85. And of course when Sony came in with the PS1, they out spent em all. Securing exclusives is a time-honored method of establishing dominance. Microsoft was just taking its turn at the wheel. If people pay attention, you will notice that Sony opened up their coffers earlier this year and now “suddenly” all these 3rd party exclusives are being announced. It is not a coincidence. This is hardly a dirty practice.

    @18,19, etc
    About half-a-year ago, someone actually counted up the games per platform into their primary genre. To no one’s surprise, the big winner on both the PS3 and the 360 is sports titles. The only reason to declare one console or another to support primarily “X genre” is so that the group of people with disdain for that genre can feel smug and superior in their console choice. Black Ops sells what? 5 million the first day? If you were going to make a console I sure hope you plan on being the #1 choice for FPS players too.

    @25 It is owned by From Software and was published by Sony in Japan. Meanwhile in the US it was published by Atlus and in the EU, Namco-Bandai. This is even a more loose relationship than Microsoft had with Bioware when they developed Mass Effect, and yet we see the sequel coming to the PS3. Demon Souls 2 being multi-platform would hardly be a surprise.

    #40 4 years ago
  41. polygem

    i do not think it will make any impact on console sales really. there is variety on 360. sony is definitely stronger there though. 360 needs some mature or family platforming games (like ratchet and clank), and some fresh adventure style ips. talking about ps3 exclusives i didn´t enjoy heavy rain at all, hated little big planet, liked kz and uncharted but not enough that it would make me purchase a ps3 again. r+c, resistance and wipeout are the games i love on the ps3. but there´s halo, mass effect and fable on 360 you know. if they finally make a medievil for ps3 i´m back in – it´s such a cool ip. i really don´t understand why there isn´t a huge AAAAAAAA ps3 medievil in the pipeline.

    #41 4 years ago
  42. chipvideo

    Quiiick said:

    November 14, 2010 at 2:31 pm… No, you’re not alone. After 3 RRoDs on my 360 and several scratched disks (without moving the box) I had enough.
    The time (2008) was right to buy a PS3 and I never looked back really. Still have my 360 but I don’t buy any new games for it (the only exception was ME2 and I regret this purchase).

    The fact that you bash ME2 at the end of your fanboy rant only confirms your a real sony fanboy. ME2 is probably the greatest game this generation.

    #42 4 years ago
  43. freedoms_stain

    @42, he probably regrets the purchase because it’s out on PS3 next year…

    #43 4 years ago
  44. Psychotech

    @21 why it is most important exactly?

    @40 Sony totally owns the IP of Demon’s Souls,SCEJ hired From Software and in collaboration they developed it. SCE published it only in Japan.
    Also proof to that is a recent announcement from SCEJ that they will make DS2 at some point in the future since the first title is so well supported

    #44 4 years ago
  45. Jan

    What matter is not if Sony suddenly sell more consoles after 6 years… what matter is- do it sell games? and what i can see it never really does.

    http://www.vgchartz.com/#first

    #45 4 years ago
  46. Psychotech

    @45 “it never really does” an ignorant statement.Off course they do and pretty good.It’s just happens that most multiplatform titles sell a bit more on the 360.There isn’t a huge difference as you make it out to be.

    #46 4 years ago
  47. Jan

    Psychotech:

    Worldwide Software Totals
    Console Weekly (change) Total (tie ratio)
    X360 3,994,325 (-8%) 403,012,359 (9.01)
    Wii 3,969,294 (+6%) 534,271,896 (7.06)
    DS 2,706,330 (+10%) 593,972,684 (4.36)
    PS3 2,186,911 (-26%) 285,685,643 (6.99)

    http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly.php

    Call of Duty: Black Ops Sells 7 Million Copies on Day One:
    Xbox 360 takes the largest proportion of sales with 59%, 36% for PS3 and the remainder on PC, Wii and DS

    http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82685/call-of-duty-black-ops-sells-7-million-copies-on-day-one

    #47 4 years ago
  48. Psychotext

    Those numbers are pulled out of VGC’s arse Jan. They have no relation to reality.

    #48 4 years ago
  49. OrbitMonkey

    All this statistical cock waving & analytical naval gazing is so much bs. Bottom line, 360/PS3, similar shit, slightly different smell. Neither is in danger of doing a dreamcast anytime soon.

    #49 4 years ago
  50. Psychotech

    @47 even if those early numbers were accurate ,36% sounds bad to you?Pull yourself together.You’re exaggerating.

    #50 4 years ago
  51. Jan

    Psychotext: I believe you brought nothing to this table yet, I only her talk but no source, show us any different?

    Psychotech: 2 to 1? Well if I had to put a game on the market it matter big time, and I haven’t either seen any Move games selling any good, go and do the math for the future, i’m just saying..

    I’m not saying any your guys are wrong, I just would like to see some details, or numbers, that’s all.

    #51 4 years ago
  52. Johnny Cullen

    For the record, don’t believe ANYTHING about VGC. Anything.

    #52 4 years ago
  53. Jan

    Johnny Cullen: No? why is that so? Could you show me another place to look then?

    #53 4 years ago
  54. Psychotech

    Jan since you trust VGC so much here’s something

    http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=final%20fantasy%20XIII

    edit:go check previous COD’s sales and you’ll see they aren’t so different between these 2 platforms

    #54 4 years ago
  55. Jan

    Psychotech: So now we trust VGC?, great then we can go back to my point #45 and compare every game and not only 1, sry 2 now.

    Year on year software totals are up for every platform except for the PS3, which is down 6% or 141,000. The X360 is up 59% or 1,484,000.

    http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82707/weekly-sales-analysis-6-november-2010-kinect-debuts-in-america/

    Xbox 360: UP Year on Year this week by 23k. UP Year to date 23.56%

    Playstation 3: DOWN Year on Year this week by 19k. UP Year to date 22.67%

    http://gamrfeed.vgchartz.com/story/82714/2010-year-on-year-sales-and-market-share-update-to-november-6th/

    #55 4 years ago
  56. Gekidami

    ^ I think you should go back and read through those links properly.

    #56 4 years ago
  57. Psychotext

    You wont find one Jan, European / Canadian / Middle East / Canada / New Zealand / Australian (and most recently the US) numbers are a mystery to us. The only reliable source we have is manufacturer provided shipment figures, and even they can be a bit of a dark art to properly understand.

    #57 4 years ago
  58. Psychotech

    I didn’t say i trust CVG Jan i put it right there for you since YOU trust it.Just to speak in your language if you will.
    But hey there are other games as well other than my example which had better sales on ps3 rather than 360.do a thorough search and you’ll find them or at CVG if you like ;)
    My point is that you’re exaggerating in your initial post.Ps3 generates a very good ammount of software sales which in most cases is on par with 360′s and few others a bit lower than that

    #58 4 years ago
  59. Jan

    Psychotech: Ok I looked on COD like you said now, and what I can see is that it sold twice as many copy in USA, which I said 2-1, and even in the rest. And like I said, if you didn’t trust that site provide us with another one then.

    http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Call+of+Duty:+Modern+Warfare+2&publisher=&console=&genre=&minSales=0&results=25&sort=Total

    Gekidami: I can see you used a hole 8min to read the comment, read the 2 link, and post your comment, sry but I cant really take you serious.

    Psychotext: yearh I guess so, such a shame, but I still think its wrong to compare how many consoles is sold then how many is buying stuff to it, that was more my point.

    btw going to bed now.

    #59 4 years ago
  60. Psychotech

    @59 Even with Modern warfare 2 even taken the sales data from CVG the point is there isn’t much of a difference in total sales between both consoles.Worldwide it’s not 2-1 and that’s what REALLY matters.Not as someone mentioned previously that only NA sales really matter.That is bollocks.

    I think you’re trying your best to troll here.
    You failed to prove your initial point that ps3 doesn’t generate any “real” software sales
    Have a good night

    #60 4 years ago
  61. albo88

    this really is for nerds who gives a fuck as far as i play the game who care of ps3 or 360 dies there will be new console new game cos this is how industry works always getting up after a brutal shock

    #61 4 years ago
  62. Blerk

    This bit:
    I think in terms of doing things differently they should probably have focused more on Europe and just given up on Japan. They would have had a better chance in Europe.

    …. is sort of right, I think. Bigger area, more familiar audience, etc. etc.

    #62 4 years ago

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