Sun, Jul 04, 2010 | 10:31 BST
Pachter: Games industry in “persistent decline”
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has said May’s NPD results are showing the games industry is in a “persistent” state of decline.
Speaking to MCV in reaction to the figures, Pachter said a worrying trend is appearing, despite the month’s software line-up being stacked in favour of dramatic growth.
“We expect investors to remain spooked by the May results, as they are beginning to reinforce the notion that the videogame industry is in a state of persistent secular decline,” he said.
“Despite May’s easy percentage and dollar comparisons and long-anticipated debuts for a handful of games, it became clear that several of May’s games performed well below expectations as the month progressed.”
Pachter singled out Nintendo, which, despite its huge install base, seems to be one of the worst hit when it comes to software sales.
“Wii software sales were down 29 percent year-over-year, and DS software sales were down 13 percent, while PS3 software sales were up 58 per cent and Xbox 360 software sales were up 29 per cent.
“We think this is remarkable, given growth in the Wii hardware installed base of 44 percent and growth in the DS installed base of 33 percent over the last 12 months. In our view, this indicates that Nintendo’s customers either are not finding enough software to satisfy their needs, or need less software than the typical Sony or Microsoft customer.”
You can catch all of the NPD results for May here.
18 comments
#1
2plus2equals5
04/07/10, 10:41 am
If he says so then a boom of the gaming industry is coming! LOL
#2
The_Deleted
04/07/10, 11:54 am
I dunno… he was bang on about Borderla… no no… but he hit the nail on the head about that thing with the…thing…
I got nothin’…
#3
Gekidami
04/07/10, 12:59 pm
Nintendo has been in a decline for some time now in both the hardware and software departement, surprise: Something cant sell well year after year after year. The decline is because the Wii set such high sales standards till this year.
As for the other games he lists, Seriously? Alan Wake, Prince of Persia, Blur, Shrek, Lost Planet 2, Iron Man 2 and Skate 3? Did anyone really think these games would sell well with them getting poor to just over average review scores? Who was going to get any of those games over RDR?
It looks like Pachter thinks gamers will buy anything blindly, he’s wrong.
#4
Tonka
04/07/10, 1:57 pm
The Wii improved YoY this month. The DS is on a slippery slope. Could be because of the 3DS anouncement. But yeah, there are only so many consoles you can sell.
How far is it to the PS2?
#5
DaMan
04/07/10, 2:10 pm
@3
“getting poor to just over average review scores”
seriously, AW, Blur poor to just over average scores? Borderlands has the same metacritic rating that those games, how come it performed so well?
#6
Happy Hardon Harry
04/07/10, 2:18 pm
Are games fun, yes, are games important, no!
#7
mescalineeyes
04/07/10, 2:34 pm
@5:
Blur is bit of a niché, title, no one gives a fuck about racing games anymore.
AW was pretty much average, sorry. Every good review was inflated. EG/Ellie was spot on, again. It was the 360′s Heavy Rain.
Borderlands was quirky and fun. Sure, it didn’t set the world on fire, but I imagine it scratched a lot of people’s Fallout 3 itch as well as being the only “original” shooter to come out last year.
#8
DaMan
04/07/10, 2:42 pm
that’s the point, I know all that.
Borderlands would’ve performed good regardless of it getting a 78 or 88 meta rating. I’m pretty sure AW would’ve did poorly regardless as well. I wonder why Geki chose to dismiss those two games as being bad/average instead of pointing out their niche appeal.
#9
Gekidami
04/07/10, 2:44 pm
@5
Borderlands is a multiplatform shooter with MP. Alan Wake is an SP only thriller being sold exclusively on a platform known for its MP-heavy shooter crowd. Seems pretty obvious it wasnt going to do so well . As for Blur, the fact that racers dont seem to sell well these days unlike shooters is pretty well established.
And yes, 83 (Metacritics) is just over average.
“I wonder why Geki chose to dismiss those two games as being bad/average instead of pointing out their niche appeal”
I wasnt bothered going into detail for each game, though they both fall into the same bunch as games no one was going to get over RDR and had reviews scores to low to really grab anyones attention.
#10
DaMan
04/07/10, 3:03 pm
yeah, that’s more like it.
#11
Joe_Gamer
04/07/10, 3:37 pm
God I hate this guy. He spouts the same obvious shit everyone else already knows along with some self serving drivel and that somehow makes him qualified as an “analyst”? The man admits he doesn’t play games, hates PC gamers, has no qualifying background, someone explain to me why anyone ever listens to this assclown.
#12
The Hindle
04/07/10, 3:48 pm
Whats intresting is AW does fair bad yet Heavy Rain does ok both niche titles. It says a lot about the respected audiences of those titles does this. HR launches the same timeframe as Gow 3 and BC 2 yet does fair well.
The question is will Microsoft go ahead with the Alan Wake sequel or will Remedy go multi?
About POP is it fair to say that as a franchise is lets say dead?
#13
mescalineeyes
04/07/10, 6:40 pm
the “Heavy Rain did well” statement is a myth at best.
#14
Gekidami
04/07/10, 6:43 pm
Selling a million in just over a month isnt ‘doing well’?
And where is this “Alan Wake is a niche title” BS coming from? Its a standard horror game like many others. Maybe if it was abit more “niche” people would have found it more interesting and bought it.
#15
mescalineeyes
04/07/10, 6:59 pm
Alan Wake is not niche at all. It’s just not particularly good.
I don’t think given the time and money it took to develop HR, Sony is happy with those sales.
#16
The Hindle
04/07/10, 7:02 pm
@15 Well Sonys projected sales for HR were 200 to 300k, estimates i mean so yea id say they are happy. Its expected to do 1.5m by the end of year as well but i think it will do way more then that especally as a Move version is coming.
#17
itwa5medicks
04/07/10, 8:14 pm
I don’t listen to any of these financial analysts. Most of them have ulterior motives.
Every industry especially this one has ups and downs. I don’t think its in a slump now, far from it.
I think @1 is right on the ball.
#18
DaMan
04/07/10, 9:53 pm
what are you talking about? I meant it sells to niche audience. these ‘horror’ games don’t appeal to wide public. iirc, out of all the similar games SH2 performed the most well, barely making it past a million. which makes it a niche title, doesn’t it.