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Analyst: Red Dead Redemption will sell 4 million in its first year

Monday, 17th May 2010 14:02 GMT By Johnny Cullen

Red Dead Redemption Art

Rockstar’s favourite number is going to be four – with a bunch of zeros at the end -  if analyst Doug Creutz is correct.

The Cowan and Company analyst reckons the San Diego-made western will sell 4 million units in its first year on sale.

“Red Dead has been perched at the top of the online retailer best seller lists for several weeks now, and we believe it is poised for breakout success,” he said in a recent note.

But he goes on to add that due to the amount of time Rockstar takes in creating a new game for its franchises – Creutz says the Red Dead series will become “another core franchise” for parent company Take Two – it might not be until the next generation of consoles until we see a new edition in the series.

Creutz also added in the note that the silence from Rockstar over dates for two more of its big titles, LA Noire and Max Payne 3, has been “deafening”, adding that while there could be date announcements at E3 next month, there is concern both titles could miss its FY10 release windows.

“Silence on Max Payne 3, LA Noire is deafening. With just over five months until the end of Take-Two’s FY10, there has been little to no indication that either title is ready for launch,” he said.

“Although Rockstar is presumably busy focusing on the Red Dead launch and could make announcements about release dates at E3, we are concerned that both titles could miss the FY10 window.”

Currently, LA Noire’s down for a fall release for PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, while Max Payne 3′s due in Q4 for PS3 and 360.

Red Dead Redemption, meanwhile, releases tomorrow in the US, with a UK release on Friday for PS3 and 360. FYI, watch the skies at 4pm today: reviews will start to go live at that point.

Thanks, GI.

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10 Comments

  1. Erthazus

    Not much if you ask me and this is a multiplatform game.

    + it will sell more in Us because of Western style.

    #1 5 years ago
  2. polygem

    …and still only a few leaked reviews yet. embargo for this one sucks. i mean it will be out tomorrow in the us and there are still no reviews on the top sites…probably tonite.

    #2 5 years ago
  3. Harry

    Reviews live from 4pm today (UK time).

    #3 5 years ago
  4. Johnny Cullen

    Polygem – they start to go live in about an hour-and-a-half, 4pm BST, as Harry’s said.

    I even mentioned it in the article.

    #4 5 years ago
  5. polygem

    yes was mentioned in the article…proves again that i´m a lousy reader. can´t wait for the video reviews…will make myself some pasta tonite and celebrate the reviews spaghetti western style

    #5 5 years ago
  6. Tomo

    4 million. I believe that’s rather a lot. What did other recent games do, to put this into context?

    I think they’re had a great marketing strategy, especially online. But I wonder how well the message will get across to the masses. Although one friend of mine who likes his games, but generally only buys one every few months, has this on his radar.

    #6 5 years ago
  7. DJ Deathstar

    I presonally think this will sell more than 4 million in its first year

    #7 5 years ago
  8. RomaTotti10

    I agree. It will sell more than 4 mill. 2,2 million in the US, 1,6 million in Europe and 300.000 in Japan. But the release date is brutal with Mario, Alan Wake, Prince of Persia and Split/Second coming out at the same time.

    #8 5 years ago
  9. Falchy

    Tomo, MW2 sold 4,7 million within 24 hours. Not that it matters :)

    #9 5 years ago
  10. jamarn2010

    I agree that it probably has sold a lot of copies as a week after its release every shop still appears to be sold out. I have to say though in my personal opinion the game is a let down. Probably due to my preference of vehicles, guns and a slightly more interesting map than a desert waste land. It probably would have been a bit more interesting to perhaps set a game in the future rather than in the past i.e. flying cars etc and not horses. Many people have however voiced their opinions to me that Red Dead is the same and even better than GTA IV. An opinion of which I strongly disagree to. GTA IV is definately one of the best games to date.

    #10 5 years ago

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