Tue, Feb 09, 2010 | 22:24 GMT

Pachter weighs-in on upcoming Arc and Natal retail war

fight!

With both Sony’s Arc and Microsoft’s Natal landing in stores later in the year, Michael Pachter has concluded who he thinks will win the motion controller war, and it all has to do with price point.

“The key to success with a retrofitted motion controller is penetration,” Pachter told NowGamer. “If price points are high, it is unlikely that Natal or Sony’s motion controller will sell many units; if they are very low, they will sell a lot more. Without a meaningful installed base of consoles with the new motion controllers, developers will not be able to cost justify development of games that require motion control.

“Therefore, it’s a chicken and egg problem.

“My uninformed opinion is that Microsoft will price relatively low (around $50), and Sony will price higher (around $100), and that suggests that Microsoft will have greater success.

“If my assumed price points are off the mark, the outcome will be different.”

While Sony has continued to remain rather quiet regarding its controller – unless you count changing its release date or denying its name time and time again – Microsoft has instead been relatively open with Natal.

Aaron Greenberg even predicted that it will be in “millions” of homes come Holiday 2010.

Guess we’ll find out once the holidays hit who wins the match- hopefully, it’s the consumer.

25 comment-trail-alt Posted in: Development, Hot, Microsoft, PS3, Sony, Xbox 360, hardware, peripherals
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25 comments

#1

The Juice707
09/02/10, 10:32 pm

$50 is a great price point. I will definitely get Natal at launch, but if the Arc is more expensive, I will probably hold off for a while (unless a cool ninja sword game comes out!!!1!).

#2

Razor
09/02/10, 10:36 pm

I can’t imagine why Sony’s price would be so high.

Their solution looks pretty cheap.

#3

Dannybuoy
09/02/10, 10:37 pm

Christ, if only I had a crystal ball as powerful as his…

#4

Gheritt White
09/02/10, 10:41 pm

Still reckon the Wand could be the killer app for me as far as the PS3 is concerned. Just hate the DualShock pad!

#5

itsucks
09/02/10, 10:42 pm

@Dannybuoy: you’re funny, dude.

#6

Tallon 4
09/02/10, 10:46 pm

Jeez….I wish I was Pachter. Whatever he says, everything is published on the internet. No matter what he predicts…
What’s that you say? 2012 apocalyse predicted on Maya Calendar? Nah..Pachter predicted it first…

#7

Michael O’Connor
09/02/10, 10:48 pm

He gets paid a lot because, quite often, he’s right.

It’s his job to analyse stuff. That doesn’t mean he can tell the future. Nobody can, but he is trusted by people to make observations of the industry for the sake of people involved in it. Mainly shareholders.

#8

Erthazus
09/02/10, 11:00 pm

The problem is in Playstation Eye camera. If they can somehow reduce it costs then thats fine. I don’t see something revolutionary in games with Natal, i see not revolution but something interesting with Sony Wand and 1st Party titles that they have.

All devices are great, its just Sony have better 1st party that can make them decent Arc game that will be worth of 60$ or 100$ in EU.

#9

The Hindle
09/02/10, 11:07 pm

I think they will both flop to be honest, are they aimed at the hardcore or are they aimed at the Wii userbase? A Wii only owner wont buy a Ps3 or a 360 when he has a Wii.

#10

Erthazus
09/02/10, 11:21 pm

@9 but PS3 and 360 offer different experience.

#11

The Hindle
09/02/10, 11:27 pm

True True

#12

onlineatron
09/02/10, 11:42 pm

If nintendo can charge under £50 for both motion plus and wiimote.then I’m sute Sony’s wand will be no where near 100

#13

The Hindle
09/02/10, 11:52 pm

Youre forgetting one thing onlineatron,…… its Sony

#14

pha1r
09/02/10, 11:54 pm

George Lee is better than Michael Pachter…

#15

onlineatron
10/02/10, 12:03 am

Lol true Hindle :P

At the same time though Microsoft can be rather greedy with their accessory pricing too.

#16

RGW1982
10/02/10, 1:53 am

Pricing Seems Ass Backwards.. Guess We’ll Have To Wait & See.

#17

SunKing
10/02/10, 5:46 am

It makes sense. We’ve all seen how good Sony is with pricing their products, and Microsoft have a better understanding of social gaming and networking.

I couldn’t tell you what device is technically better or will have the best games, but if I had to bet on a horse, it would be Microsoft.

Also, Natal is something I can see integrated into a future Microsoft console or in a revision of their current 360 unit. I can’t say the same for the Arc.

#18

Tallon 4
10/02/10, 6:46 am

Slogan: “Natal: nothing to hold on to”

On topic: can’t imagine a driving game/ fps etc. being fun without holding a controller/wheel/force feedback.

#19

SunKing
10/02/10, 7:28 am

In all honesty, I can Natal being used more for UI or navigating through menus, instead of being used to simulate the act of driving or firing a gun. I think the benefits it brings will be subtle but nonetheless quite cool.

#20

RGW1982
10/02/10, 7:48 am

RGW Vs Pachter

ARC Will Bring All The Wii Players Who Want That HD Experience To The PS3 & Sales Will Sky Rocket & With Over 67 Million Wii Players Not Having That HD Experience They Will Flock To The PS3.

Natal Will Drawn In People Who Want To Move Their Fingers Back & Fourth To Make Their Characters Move Across The Screen.. By The Way, Good Luck With That.

RGW Predicts: ARC Will Boost PS3 Sales, While Wii & 360 Sales Dwindle Away

#21

onlineatron
10/02/10, 8:05 am

Onlineatron vs RGW: You be trippin’ G

#22

redlander
10/02/10, 8:39 am

Natal will prob be more popular as it will be cheaper and have a much larger marketing drive. Hopefully more less than 20% of units will not fail in the first 12 months.

Personally I am looking forward to Arc as I like holding something in my hand ;) Natal would be fun for zooming in to maps and stuff, as long as I don’t have to get off the sofa It’s all good.

#23

Gekidami
10/02/10, 8:58 am

I’d imagine that the only reason the wand would be so much is if Sony bundle it with the PSEye.

#24

NGCes26294BIV
10/02/10, 10:46 am

@RGW1982

You never fail to crack me up. Words cannot begin to describe how woefully misinformed you are.

#25

RGW1982
10/02/10, 6:10 pm

Who’s Misinformed? I Know People Who Already Went From The Wii To PS3 For The HD Experience & This Was Before The ARC Ever Came To Light, So Hate All You Want Homo But Just Watch What Happens When The ARC Drops.. & In Less Then A Year You Can Apologise & Say I Was Right, Because I Will Be Right.. Watch.

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