RSS
Full-game downloads will only account for 50 percent of console sales by 2019, according to the massive report Michael Pachter sent over yesterday.
The Wedbush Morgan Securities novel reckons that full downloads won’t happen until console drives get bigger. Games can exceed 10Gb and most Xbox 360 consoles in homes have only 20Gb hard drive space because not as many people own a 120Gb Elite.
“In ten years, we envision a world where the typical console has a terabyte or more of storage, and where full game downloads are the norm,” it states.
“There will always be a sizable number of consumers who value the trade-in option and portability, and we expect those consumers to favor physical goods over digital downloads. Thus, we expect that digital downloads will represent less that 50 per cent of total game sales in ten years’ time.
“We think that the poster child for this scenario is Grand Theft Auto IV on the Xbox 360, a game first sold in physical form, with additional levels sold periodically thereafter through downloads. After a tepid embrace of its first downloadable episode, Take-Two decided to offer the first and second episodes in a combined physical package, with the two episodes allowing full game play without the purchase of the original GTA IV game disc.
“This model reinforces our belief that packaged goods will capture the majority of game purchases for the next ten years.”
The report also states that used games account for one-third of the market, proving that comsumers prefer to have a physical copy instead of a digital one.
Viewing 18 responses
G1GAHURTZ said:
I think that this is way off.
Since I’ve been using computers, the storage sizes associated with them has increased at a phenominal rate.
I think that my first PC that I had about 10 years ago had a 1.7GB HD, and that was more than enough at the time.
1T HD’s are totally normal for PC’s now, so I can’t see how 1T is going to be anywhere near enough for any sort of mass storage in another 10 years!
Technology has been moving much faster than they’re predicting here for a long, long time…
MushroomStamp said:
That’s a huge leap in logic to say people want physical copies just because used game market is huge. I think it says people just don’t like paying full price. Especially when people are tired of getting burned by majority of games not worth their full price.
Bringit said:
I think Michael Pachter will be a woman by 2014.
But by the time that comes around no one will remember, so I’ll never be called wrong. Which is pretty much how this joker works.
Seriously. Stop giving him column inches. He makes these statements just to get attention.
lk said:
if digital downloads would be 20% cheaper than retail copies, I would never buy another physical copy again.
fearmonkey said:
If I could have a 1TB drive now, and they would sell games for $39.99 to $49.99, I would consider buying it. I refuse to buy a downloadble game for full price though.
I like having the media, and printed manual.
For a game that I don’t care that much about, I wouldnt care about the disk and manual, but then i wouldnt be paying full price for it either.
I know this is the eventual future thought it might not be for every title for a long time to come. The next gen after this is going to have alot more requirements for storage.
The next gen would require a hefty drive.
1TB wouldnt cut it.
In 4 years, 5 TB plus drives will be the norm.
Dr.Ghettoblaster said:
I think these projected articles are so pointless. It might as well say…..”toliet paper replaced by 3 seashells by 2019″…
Blerk said:
If full game downloads don’t account for 100% of console sales by 2019, something has gone terribly, terribly wrong.
Patrick Garratt said:
I’m inclined to agree, Blerk. I’ll be pretty amazed if the majority of people haven’t dropped physical media completely within 3-5 years, to be honest.
Mike said:
I’m never going to drop it on principle. I’m being serious too.
BraveArse said:
I agree with Pat and Blerk… I’ll buy a full game from the PSN store over a retail copy given the choice. Burnout Paradise being one critical example.
A good analogy would be films imo. I’ve spent countless hours ripping my DVD collection to my hard drive so that I can stream it and not have to faff around in the DVD shelves finding what I want. The minute Sony gets their ass in gear over here with that damn video store is the minute I can stop doing that.
Blerk said:
I always thought I’d never ditch physical media too, Mike. But then I tried to remember the last time I bought a music CD. And I can’t.
As broadband speeds and storage space increase, this will just sneak up on us like it did on the music industry.
Mike said:
*batons down the hatches*
Retroid said:
I like my retail bargains too much.
Patrick Garratt said:
The big limit at the moment’s console hard drive space, and that won’t be a factor for very much longer at all, in my opinion. As BA says there, I’d always buy a download over a disc, and always do. I haven’t used a disc in terms of PC games for well over a year now. I haven’t bought a music CD for at least three years. I can’t remember the last time I did.
Blerk said:
The ideal solution in order to maintain the ‘retail bargains’ model would be for multiple companies to be able to provide the same products, rather than just everything being centralised on Sony or Microsoft, say.
So you can choose where to buy/download your title from, which generates competition, which reduces prices. A bit like Steam and the like – same games, different stores, different prices.
Mike said:
I love buying CD’s. I buy them all the time.
Blerk said:
How quaint!
Mike said:
I still eat with a knife and fork too.