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Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter expects the Xbox 360 market to drop to third by 2015, due to the lack of saturation in the Japanese market. However, all can still be well for the console, even in third place.
“We expect the dominant console at the end of the this cycle to be the Wii, as we think that the console’s low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions will provide it with a competitive advantage over the next two years,” he wrote in a company report which also cited the eventual release of Wii “Plus”, a.k.a. Wii HD.
“We think that the PS3 will capture significant market share, primarily due to Sony’s victory in the high definition DVD format war, and will end up in second place by 2015. Although Microsoft’s Xbox 360 enjoyed a first mover advantage, we think that its market position will fade to third place due to lack of penetration in Japan.”
Xbox 360 could end up a winner, even in third place though, because of Xbox Live which attracted 2 million users the last generation, and due to over 20 million members using Live which is 65 percent of all 360 owners.
“With over 10 million members (only 1 million of whom are Xbox Live Gold members), the Netflix installed base has an incentive to purchase an Xbox 360 and to join Xbox Live,” he continued. “We expect the pace of game and movie downloads to increase exponentially over the next few years, and estimate that Microsoft generates over $100 million in profit annually from downloads.
“Microsoft has positioned the Xbox 360 to be an Internet and Entertainment hub in the living room. With the rollout of Project Natal expected in late 2010, we think that Microsoft will position itself as a centerpiece of the living room. We envision the addition of Internet television, video on demand, and open Internet access over the coming years, once Microsoft has decided how best to monetize its product offering.”
Whew.
Viewing 16 responses
BillyBatts said:
BREAKING NEWS: Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter expects that tomorrow he will have a bran muffin for breakfast.
Reports that he may accompany this with a cup of coffee are yet to be confirmed. More news when we have it.
anasui said:
bloody hell, enough of this Pachter bullshit. The man can’t predict if he’s gonna have a blowjob even if he paid for it
No_PUDding said:
anasui, that’s little unnecessary analogy, isn’t it? It’s not past 8pm yet.
MushroomStamp said:
I think is total crap. He’s basing this entire thing off the Jap market. Well, it seems the Jap market isn’t what it used to be and isnt’ as important as it used to be. Western Developers have been kickin the crap out of Jap Devs for couple years now. At last couple Jap Dev conferences they themselves even admitted it. Pachter is out of touch and idiot.
Psychotext said:
“It’s not past 8pm yet.”
That entirely depends where you are in the world.
lk said:
finishing third in this generation is like finishing third in the olympics. YOU ARE THIRD. AT THE FUCKING OLYMPICS.
Psychotext said:
I’ve always been great at the fucking olympics.
No_PUDding said:
And I live in the UK, where it’s 5:30.
And seriously, Psycho is great at those olympics, Pat and Mike told me. Stephany didn’t.
Psychotext said:
Pat and Mike love my Olympic level performances.
MushroomStamp said:
Would that be the tug-n-pull event or shotput
Psychotext said:
\o/
haliotis81 said:
This guy is telling rubbish. Xbox 360 in third place because of Japan sale?? Do you know how small Japan market is?? Compare to US and Euro markets?? I guessed this guy never finish first grade. Go look at the map of the world! And now we are all talking about of downloading contents. If a standard PS3 game is 50GB, then it will take very long to download. Xbox 360 still sticking with DVD is a right choice for games. You can download a full xbox 360 game faster. PS3 exclusive games take forever to finish. Look at GT racing game still no release date!!!
reask said:
Well if Pachter says third it probably means 360 will win this gen.
fearmonkey said:
@Reask -your right on lol….
It seems funny that through the 360’s lifecycle, All the analysts have stated that Sony would be on top, then second once the Wii took off. Im not convinced that by 2011 blu-ray will save the day for the PS3.
he’s wrong like every month, except for the slow months maybe. he would be better off flipping a coin.
Cort said:
“Microsoft has positioned the Xbox 360 to be an Internet … hub in the living room.”
Um, what?
Dr.Ghettoblaster said:
Analysts also say farts will no longer smell by 2015…