Sat, May 02, 2009 | 22:42 BST
Pachter: Next-gen consoles not before 2013, if at all
Michael Pachter has said that the next generation of consoles will not launch until 2013, if at all.
In a recent industry newsletter he sent to our in-boxes, Pachter reiterated what he told us at GDC that this current console generation is that last, and if not – it’s going to be a while.
“We do not expect a “new” console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” he wrote. “We do not expect the ‘next’ generation to begin before 2013, if at all.
“We remain convinced that the publishers will resist the introduction of any video game hardware technology that requires a refresh of software, as the publishers have as yet to capitalize on the immense investments made in being competitive in the current cycle.
“We therefore think it is likely that the ‘next’ generation will begin after 2013, meaning that software sales are likely to grow by a compounded annual rate of 6–10 percent for another five years.
“Because R&D costs are likely to flatten out with the benefits of a learning curve, we expect earnings leverage as the publishers are able to exploit R&D investments. In brief, we think that investors have it wrong so far this cycle, and think that investment in video game publishers will bear fruit for many years.”
Place your bets now.
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Posted in: Development, Financials, PS3, Retail, Trade, Wii, Xbox 360, hardware
Tags: michael pachter, webush morgan
13 comments
#1
Hunam
02/05/09, 10:49 pm
Is patcher on the cloud bandwagon then?
#2
anasui
02/05/09, 10:53 pm
can’t wait for him to come out with the next shocking statement about water being fluid and shit being stinky
#3
Hunam
02/05/09, 11:25 pm
Tell you what though, I wish sony would release a HD PS2 with AA. I seem to play the PS2 more now than ever. The other console barely get a look in.
#4
Bulk Slash
02/05/09, 11:28 pm
When the next generation arrives I think the platform holders are going to have to provide some sort of off-the-shelf game engine for developers to work with (similar to the Unreal Engine). Otherwise it’s going to take developers 2 years just to build an engine before they can even start on a game.
Just look at Square this generation. They’ve not released a single Final Fantasy yet (although it’s partly their own fault for being slow). They’d be pretty pissed if the next generation of consoles were on the way and their Crystal Tools/White Engine was already obsolete. They’ll probably want enough time to release at least one more FF game this generation using their engine before the next systems are announced.
#5
Hunam
02/05/09, 11:49 pm
See, that’s Sony’s problem this generation. With the Xbox Microsoft had the early advantage that it ran direct x 9. You could just port a PC engine over (which were swanky at that point in time as they had kept up with the PC’s gradual curve) and use that, where for the PS3 everything had to be rebuilt.
Who do we blame though? The jump wasn’t that big when you think about it. It wasn’t 2D to 3D like back in the day. Were developers lazy or were platform holders too quick to launch the console?
#6
ecu
03/05/09, 12:13 am
I think it’s just because it takes a lot more time to build a decent game these days.
#7
Psychotext
03/05/09, 2:29 am
Wait… didn’t he recently say there were going to be no next gen consoles? Seems like he’s hedging his bets now.
#8
polygem
03/05/09, 8:02 am
well i still believe this is just marketing to make people believe it´s better not to wait buying a new console…i doubt that the 360 can stand head to head with the ps3 in within the next 2 years so there will probably be a new ms maschine in 2011…a ps4 in 2013 ok, maybe….but xbox? hmmmm…
#9
rabbitc
03/05/09, 8:16 am
BUZZ! Wrong again, Pachter! I’m starting to wonder why this guy has any credibility. First off – expect the PS4 (an adapted model of the PS3 with an enhanced SDK) no LATER than 2011 – expect Microsoft to attempt to trumpt Sony with the 720 around this time but no later than 2012.
#10
TheTwelve
03/05/09, 11:48 am
I think one day Pachter will come out and say that he was just fooling around and making a mockery of the gaming community — kind of like a more prestigious version of that whole Surfer-Girl scandal.
Dude is an absolute joke. The videogame industry is too young for any one person to be more of a expert with it than anyone else. Anybody above the age of 30 and has been paying attention is just as much an expert as the other.
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#11
wz
03/05/09, 3:00 pm
As soon as there is an end to economic problems, there will be a new console generation coming. Not saying that this is going to happen before 2013.
It’s just that you have to assure consumers they are not throwing those not-so-small amounts of cash out of the window.
#12
Tonka
04/05/09, 8:55 am
Did he or didn’t he say something about 2010 a few years ago?
#13
Blerk
04/05/09, 9:00 am
2010 was his date for a ‘hi-def Wii’, wasn’t it?