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Wedbush Morgan’s Michael Pachter has just predicted that Xbox 360 significantly over-sold PS3 in the US in September.
We estimate sell-through of 600,000 Wii, 300,000 Xbox 360 and 175,000 PS3 consoles. Our console sell-through forecasts reflect our belief that supplies for Wii hardware increased this month, as some portion of increased Wii production that started in July likely finally found its way to retail late in the month. Similarly, we believe that Xbox 360 demand increased after the September price cuts, with some market share gain likely over the PS3.
EEDAR’s estimates for the month are roughly in line with Pachter’s, although the firm has pitched PS3 significantly higher than the WM analyst.
We’ll know soon enough.
Viewing 17 responses
Psychotext said:
He’s massively harsh on the PS3 there and I think he’s overblown the Wii (I just don’t think they had the stock to do 600k).
Here’s mine again… putting my money where my mouth is.
[NDS] 615K
[WII] 530K
[360] 339K
[PSP] 285K
[PS3] 243K
[PS2] 175K
No_PUDding said:
Pachter said this?
Oulook is bad for the Wii the 360 will double Wii sales and the PS3 will half.
He has to be wrong somehow
Psychotext said:
I think you’ve got that a bit confused somehow. He said 600k Wii, 300k 360 and 175k PS3. That’s the Wii doubling 360 sales, not the 360 doubling Wii sales.
Cort said:
Whatever the final figures will be, it is going to be painful for Sony. And they will not be looking forward to the holiday season. I hope LBP ameliorates some of this.
PS If I go postal on someone’s ass today, I’m blaming that freaking ribbon banner and popup.
Blerk said:
Pachter predicts Microsoft win, Sony breathes sigh of relief.
Psychotext said:
There’s truth in that.
reask said:
My thoughts exactly blerk.
This guy is never right.
Esha said:
I wonder why they keep doing this?
This is Microsoft’s public face after all, it’s all going to come back and bite them on the rump eventually, surely?
Nintendo’s public face is that they have a niche, so they don’t really care about the competition.
Sony’s public face is that they want everyone to succeed (they said that, not I).
Microsoft’s public face is… this. A face that seems like a snotty kid on a schoolyard yelling about how his parents are richer than anyone elses.
It’s got to all come back on them eventually. This is some seriously bad karma.
Psychotext said:
Umm… Esha. This has got nothing to do with Microsoft.
Also, don’t take the Yoshida as the word of Sony. You’ve clearly missed all the pissy remarks from people like Reeves and Tretton.
Psychotext said:
Wii utterly screwed me again. I can never work out their supply:
Wii - 687.0K
NDS - 536.8K
360 - 347.2K
PSP - 238.1K
PS3 - 232.4K
PS2 - 173.5K
EEDAR: 132k off
Me: 170k off
Pachter: 192k off
Stupid Wii, but at least I still beat Pachter.
No_PUDding said:
You did pretty well.
I know that the disparity between the 360 and PS3 were expected, but it’s pretty small for a sales spike, but I think the 360 still has Christmas shopping months to go with cash pressed parents.
Just.. Needs less Wii.
Psychotext said:
I’m very happy with my predictions for everything non Nintendo. I’m just completely baffled by Nintendo sales all the time.
No_PUDding said:
I know why you are baffled, but care to hazard a guess, or is it just the casual element?
Psychotext said:
No, not that. I can never work out how much Nintendo is shipping… and right now they’re selling pretty much everything they can ship (and will until next year some time).
When they’re no longer supply limited they’ll be much easier to predict.
David said:
It would be nice to see what kind of demographics are buying the Wii.
No_PUDding said:
You know the whole thign with me wishing it’s a fad so we can get on with HD gaming is ridiculous. As soon as sales start to depleat, we’ll get another peripheral.
Psychotext said:
Yup. Nintendo have this gen LOCKED DOWN.