American sales: PS3 beat 360 in August, says Pachter

His predictions are a little high I reckon… but only a little. August is usually a little slower than July.

Hmm. He’s more in line with your figures. Be interesting this month. Can’t wait for September’s.

You just know if Pachter says 360 won then PS3 did and vica versa.

So basically my predictions are confirmed correct, as morriss said The 360 is gonna beat the PS3.

Agreed about the height. I’d go for sub 200,000 to be honest for PS3.

Yeah, he’s wrong a lot but I think he’s on the ball this time. People knew the September price cut was coming and they weren’t going to buy a 360 until it hit.

^^ Er, that is no reason whatsoever for a possible PS3 win over the 360 in August. Indeed, it should be the other way round……..

1. Most PS3 buyers held off for the new 80GB + DS3 SKU which was officially announced in July and made available in the US in just the last few days of August.
2. The last of the 40GB stock was sold out in most online stores by the second week of August, meaning that in many stores there were no PS3s available at all for nearly two weeks (save for limited stocks of the MGS4 bundle).
3. Another SKU was officially announced on 20 August (the 160GB) for a November release in the US, likely causing another bunch of shoppers to hold fire on a PS3 purchase even longer.

Now, that all adds up to a LOT more of a reason for potentially low sales than a price cut which wasn’t even announced until, er, September (yes there were rumours in August, but the Sony stuff listed above was official and more likely to affect sales).

So, *if* the PS3 has won in the US/Land of the 360 – again – I’d say that it is a tremendous achievement. Probably its best performance yet in terms of US sales.

1. People were too busy scooping up the remaining BC 80gb models to care about the 40gb. Plus as you said, the new model was available in August…thus the sales will show in August’s NPD figures, especially if people were waiting to pick one up.

2. Stock was showing around 58% availability, so whilst it was low, it wasn’t horrendous (not at Wii levels). Besides, as I said before – People aren’t after the 40gb either because of BC or because of the new DS3 model.

3. I really don’t think anyone cares about the 160gb PS3. Those interested in that sort of storage will just pick up an 80gb and throw a bigger HDD in. Especially with the price of the new model.

Based on what you’re saying though, we should see significantly reduced sales of the PS3 in August. It did 81.1k a week in June, 56.23k a week in July and I’m estimating 52k a week in August. You think lower perhaps?

Assuming lower sales I guess you’re predicting a significant bump in September because of pent-up demand, even though eager buyers should have been able to grab the new model in August?

That’s a fucking lie!!!!ps3 is never going to beat the xbox, i do own a ps3 but love my xbox.

Less coffee for that man.

2 sugar please!!

Why does he do this? What is the point in predicting numbers that will be available a few days later?

RevolutionBlues said:the US/Land of the 360
Say what?

Another chance to ridicule Michael Pachter… excellent.

@Psychotext,

Okay, people were largely ignoring the 40GB. The new 80GB SKU was available for about a week in the US. The MGS4 bundle sold the last of its stock mid-month. And three 360 SKUs were on sale for the full 31 days of the month with no obvious stock problems. But I’m not saying that the PS3 lost. What I am saying is that if it *has* won the month (and I think it probably has) then it is a great achievement given that for much of the month there were few being sold. Yes, the 80GB would have provided a bounce, but still, sales of that SKU came in one week.

You said that people were holding off the 360 because of a looming price cut and infer that that is why its sales were lower (than the PS3). But that price cut wasn’t even announced until September. Are you saying a rumoured price cut was really a *potentially* (and that’s the key word here) bigger brake on sales than the PS3 not selling for half the month (save for the limited MGS4 bundle and some 40GBs) plus a bigger SKU being announced for the near future?

BTW, not everyone wants the hassle of swapping a drive, and I bet most wouldn’t know how to or dare to try. There will be a decent number holding off for the 160GB, I’m sure. Otherwise, why did all those people stop buying 40GBs and wait for the 80GB when it had the same functionality? Wouldn’t they have just bought a 40 and done a bigger upgrade themselves? Yes the extra 40 was free, but does it matter when they weren’t going to use that bigger drive but replace it with another anyway? Bigger drives clearly sell.

Tonka – in the context of the 360/PS3, the former rules the US with an iron fist – at the moment. That was my point.

The 360 rules with an iron fist in the US? It’s outsold the Wii twice since the launch of the Wii and the PS3 has outsold it all bar 2 months this year. …and yeah, a lot of people knew about the 360 price cut that was coming. It was rumoured from July and we saw flyers proving it not long after.

You answered your own question on the bigger drive / 80gb issue. Why would people buy the 40gb when the extra 40gb space was free? Also, it doesn’t matter if the new PS3 was only on sale for a week… if demand was pent up as you’re suggesting then a week would be all that’s needed to see the sales. Especially the week where everyone gets paid and most hardware purchases are made anyway.

I don’t agree that there’s a decent number holding off on the 120gb… in fact I really don’t think many people will be interested at all – especially not at $499. Like I said, people who are interested in this level of storage are tech heads, quite capable of swapping drives, and most likely quite willing. There’s a big difference in wanting some extra space for free vs paying $100 for 80gb more.

You didn’t answer this question btw:

“Based on what you’re saying though, we should see significantly reduced sales of the PS3 in August. It did 81.1k a week in June, 56.23k a week in July and I’m estimating 52k a week in August. You think lower perhaps?

Assuming lower sales I guess you’re predicting a significant bump in September because of pent-up demand, even though eager buyers should have been able to grab the new model in August?”

You know… that all looks quite funny. We’re discussing who is going to have the shittiest sales, and why.

Nintendo must be laughing their arses off.

It’s impossible to say whether a significant number of people are holding out on buying a PS3 for the same reason, but the only reason I haven’t bought one yet is because they removed BC.

I’ve certainly seen enough people on forums say the same thing to make me wonder whether Sony really have any idea how important it is to a lot of people, but I guess it’s fair to assume they don’t think it’s a significant number.

Oh shit, now you’ve done it! Shatner incoming!

Dr. Haggard. You are a figment of your own imagination.

Tonka – in the context of the 360/PS3, the former rules the US with an iron fist – at the moment. That was my point.

Right. Well in the struggle for second place there isn’t much of a competition.

“Oh shit, now you’ve done it! Shatner incoming!”

/o\

@Pyschotext, Please don’t misrepresent my point about the US: I very clearly said “in the context of the 360/PS3″ did I not?

Anyway, the 360 has sold more than twice as many as the Ps3 in the US (yes I know it had a headstart), and at the current rate it would take many years for the Sony console to catch up (if ever it could before the next generation arrives). Compare the US position to that of Europe and Japan; the 360 rules the US in the *360/PS3* battle. How long will it take to claw back 6 or 7 million when you are winning by say an average of 50k a month? I’m crap at maths but I reckon over a decade? I’d say that it quite a firm grip, and I’m a Sony/PS brand whore.

I can’t answer your point about precise relative sales as I’m not Mystic Meg or VGChartz (well, they are the same thing). All I can say, and have done, is that I think the PS3 has beaten the 360 based on what I’ve seen at the major online retailers (relative positions across the month as a whole) and prelims from the analysts.

You are not seeing my main point. You reckon the PS3 beat the 360 in part due to the looming price cut of the MS console (inferring – at least – that without the rumoured cut the 360 would have sold at a better rate than you think it did). I say that would have had very minimal effect, if any, as the cut wasn’t announced until September, only rumoured in August. Indeed, when the 80GB PS3 was announced the 40GB immediately plummeted from the Top 10 of Amazon to outside the Top 25, then outside the Top 100, which shows it influenced consumers. When the 360 price cut was rumoured several times in August, the 360 stayed at the same point in the chart. At Amazon at least, the rumour had almost no effect whatsoever on 360 sales.

And again, you reinforce my point. What I *AM* saying is that (aside from saying the 360 rumour had a neglible effect) one week of PS3 sales beat 31 days of the 360, and that that was a good performance. Nothing more.

(Edited)

It’s not just me though… most analysts are pointing to the looming 360 price cut as the reason as well.

Going back to the firm grip thing. You said it yourself, the only reason MS are in front is because they launched earlier. Taking LTD sales at the same point in each console’s life the PS3 is selling faster in the US than the 360 did (I imagine the rather large price cuts had something to do with that).

Oh, and if you really think that it’s as simple as boiling it down to one week of PS3 sales beating a month of 360 sales then you’re batshit mental (and you must think that September is going to be a fantastic month). You make it sound like all the previous models were gone and the only ones bought were the new 80gb ones, which is frankly insane.

Sorry to be the guy with the arsey comment but, why don’t we just wait and see?

I cant wait until the PS3 finally over takes the 360.

WHY do people STILL argue about it, the PS3 will sell more than the 360, its just about how much more.

No_PUD: Some of us like predicting how games are going to suck, some of us like predicting hardware sales.

You badmouth games, I badmouth sales figures.

It’s not insane. The MGS4 bundle was in limited supply and reaching the end of its stock, and as you say, the 40GB was largely ignored the entire month (and see my comments vis-a-vis the Amazon charts, I think I’m right in saying the second biggest game retailer in the US after K-Mart?).

On the launch point, the PS3 has sold less than half of what the 360 has sold in the US. Has it been on sale for less than half the time? Nope. Once the years rack up, the head start defence becomes less and less relevant. Again, I’m crap at maths, but I reckon that when a product has been on sale for two thirds of the time its competitor has, and has sold less than half, it has certainly performed less well across the lifespan as a whole.

And didn’t you say earlier that the analysts are wrong a lot? Maybe they are wrong about the effect of the price cut rumour? Again, the 360 didn’t budge in the various online sales that charts I saw.

PS The 360/PS3 on-sale time and hardware sales charts (for the US only) would look something like this, showing performance relative to sales period (hope this works otherwise it’ll be a right mess….).

TIME ON SALE
360 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PS3 |||||||||||||||||||||

SALES
360 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PS3 ||||||||||||||

(Edited for spelling)

Regarding the Amazon thing… It’s never been a good indicator of the 360. Hell, when it was smoking the PS3 in the US the PS3 was still showing higher than it in Amazon charts for some obscure reason. You might as well point to vgchartz.

On the launch thing… I said exactly what you just said – who are are you arguing with?

Current hardware sales;

360 Sales

0.68M Japan
12.32M America
7.52M Others

Total: 20.53M

PS3 Sales

2.36M Japan
5.77M America
7.09M Others

Total: 15.22M

…and the vgchartz data is here making the topic complete. I’m out.

People can’t have it both ways with VGChartz.

One of the two main criticisms levelled at them is that they change their data retrospectively to match up with the monthly NPD data and official manufacturer figures once they are released (indeed, NPD and other analysts have complained about it). And it is true: many times after the NPD data have been released or manufacturer keynotes have reported official sales, the VGC charts have changed suddenly. So, the historical figures *are* a reasonable indicator of console sales. Either that or one of two main attacks on VGC has to be withdrawn and never repeated. Take your pick…..

It is their weekly figures for the current month that one should treat with significant caution.

No, my issues with VGChartz are that they don’t always change their figures retrospectively and they have next to no released figures for Europe which they can use to fix their broken predictions.

I’m not going to go through this again though (I’ve done it many times on this site, even to the point of showing just how far off their data is), but here’s food for thought: “I have said many times how what we are doing at VG Chartz is neither interfering with NPD’s business nor doing anything wrong. All of our figures are essentially guesstimates”

and http://www.gamesetwatch.com/2008/06/analysis_what_vgchartz_does_and.php

@Psychotect,

Because we are using the matter of the launch dates/time on sale to make slightly different points. We agree – naturally – that the 360 is ahead because it launched earlier, but I am saying that the one year headstart does not explain the size of its lead in sales. The 360 has sold over 100% more than the PS3s numbers in the US, but been on sale less than 50% longer than the PS3 has.

Note that the length-on-sale ratio is in bigger favour of the 360 in Europe, yet the PS3 has caught it. The ratio is the same in Japan but the PS3 is miles ahead. So relatively speaking, the 360 owns the US *in the context of the 360/PS3 battle*.

I’m not sure what’s so confusing, it’s a simple sales curve with sales increasing over time as price reduces and the games catalogue improves. It’s just that the PS3′s curve is steeper because it’s sold more at this point in its life than the 360 did in the US.

5.28m vs 4.50m going by NPD data.

Well they would say that wouldn’t they?! Do you really think they’d admit to using the NPD figures as their own? Firstly, inviting a big fat lawsuit, and secondly, admitting they are full of shit?! Dude, WTF! Come on…….

It’s true, I like predicting bad games

But the truth behind why Resistance is so brown is not going to be revealed next Thursday if you get what I mean.

I don’t say or think it’s confusing. I am talking about historical performance to date. And that shows the 360 is stronger in the US *to date* than the PS3 which was my initial point questioned by another commenter.

Doesn’t get less confusing than this:

TIME ON SALE
360 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PS3 |||||||||||||||||||||

SALES
360 ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PS3 ||||||||||||||

But… it’s not. You can’t compare the first 22 months of a console with 34 months of another console. You can compare the first 22 of each, which shows that the PS3 is stronger than the 360 in the US. It’s pretty much the same reason it’s useless comparing the 360′s sales this month with the PS3′s sales, it’s better to compare them with what the 360 did the year before.

There is no iron grip. Only pre NPD spin.

But you can use past historical performance – albeit recent – and predictions about price cuts and the quality of the future catalogue (including analogous to a competitor) to predict future performance (your point above)?

The iron grip is that at *current* rates, the PS3 will struggle to catch the 360 before the 720 probably arrives. Remember they’ve got to haul in an install lead of around 6,500,000 with a weekly lead in sales of about 50,000, assuming they can maintain that weekly lead permanently.

(Edit: My earlier point about taking nearly a decade to catch up was clearly wrong. More like four years I think.)

But it’s irrelevant… unless you think that the PS3 will instantly stop selling when the 720 comes out, or the 360 for that matter.

@Psychotext, we are currently debating my statement “…the (360) rules the US with an iron fist – at the moment.” So why is this irrelevant? It is the very definition of relevancy, we are debating 360 vs Ps3 sales. As the Ps2 shows, new hardware doesn’t always stop sales of that which it replaces and there is no reason to think MS will repeat the mistake of abandoning its previous child too soon.

PS AWE DAMMIT! Just made a right royal ass of myself. In my last post I revised my estimate of when the PS3 could catch the 360 in the US using a weekly lead figure of 50k. Of course, I’ve no idea where I plucked that figure from……outta my ass it seems.

And just for the record chaps, I reckon the PS3 will beat the 360 globally if not in the US. Europe and Japan will swing it for Sony.

God, give it up man… I don’t even think you know what you’re trying to argue any more.

Simple facts, the PS3 sold more than the 360 in the US during its first 22 months on sale than the 360 did. It has outsold the 360 this year 4 out of 6 months. If you think that’s an iron fist, there’s really no helping you.

Fine I’ll give it up and this will be my last post on the subject. But don’t be a petulant asshole and tell me I don’t know what I am saying when I can quote my points under discussion. You are the one heading off at a tangent and declaring my points are irrelevant when clearly they are directly linked to my OWN statements.

What you said: 360 has iron grip on US, 360 has sold more than double what the PS3 has sold in less than double the time. PS3 will struggle to catch 360 before 720.

What I said: Sales curve, can’t compare 22 months to 34, PS3 outsold 360 in first 22 months on market, PS3 outsold 360 4 out of 6 months this year. PS3 catching 360 before 720 release is irrelevant unless you think the PS3 will stop selling on the 720s release (which you agreed will not happen).

I think that just about sums it up.

Oh look he continues a debate he demanded an end to. We seem to be in the playground. Allow me to repsond.

And, because you said those things, they must all be 100% true and relevant, right? Listing your points doesn’t increase their validity nor does selectively choosing mine reduce theirs so don’t use the debating methods of a spoilt child.

Now stop being a prick and end the debate. We agree to disagree. No problem. Move on.

I never demanded an end to it. I said you should give up because you’d forgotten what you were arguing about. I’d be more than happy to read your definition of an iron grip, one that fits your parameters anyway.

You can insult me some more if you like though.

Look at all this juice… I.. I mean blood on the floor.

Shall we just wait for Thursday? When the 360 beats the PS3. I doubt the rumours and confirmation have much of an effecvt to anyone but the hardcore who read the internet like us.

So I doubt that will affect sales.

August is slow though, but I expect the 360 to beat the PS3.

/stabs No_PUD

Hey, if I’m right about the PS3 beating the 360 this month maybe we should make it that you have to post in the BK thread saying that vehicles might actually work and you’ll wait until the game is actually released and reviewed to form an opinion.

If it’s the other way, I’ll post saying that perhaps you were right all along and it seems vehicles were tacked on just a few short months ago and that they’re clearly not going to help a stale genre.

“you’d forgotten what you were arguing about”

This from the man who said that points about the 360 winning against the PS3 were not relevant to a debate about the 360 winning against the PS3 (perhaps you are confusing being relevant with being right or wrong….which is absurd), and pointing out that the 360 was not winning in the context of the my clearly defined “360 vs. PS3″ battle because the, er, Wii was outselling it. WTF?

Bravo.

Yes, I conceded an error with my data in one post but that did not mean what I was arguing FOR was lost, just my timescale was wrong. And I withdrew it.

Now see what you did? You made me come back and descend to your level. Damn you.