Wed, Sep 03, 2008 | 07:44 BST
Pachter underestimates 2008 game sales, re-estimates them
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has predicted that his 2008 videogame sales prediction is going to be wrong, and is therefore preemptively re-predicted how things are going to go down.
For the US, Pachter anticipates 32 percent full year growth, where he once prognosticated a mere 19 percent.
Meanwhile, Europe’s hardly getting the raw end of the deal, with a 20 percent increase to 40 percent full year growth.
Find the full research note after the link.
Entertainment Software: September 2008 Video Game Monthly: Increasing Industry Growth Estimates
o This newsletter lists several of the key events (including key game releases and financial news) in August, and previews our expectations for this month (September) in the video game industry.
o We have significantly raised our estimates for 2008 video game software sales growth in the U.S. (to +32% from +19%) and in Europe (to +40% from +20%).
o The Electronic Arts/Take-Two saga continues. In April, Take-Two’s Board rejected EA’s $26/share offer as inadequate and adopted a shareholder rights plan. In mid-August, EA let its $2.0 billion tender offer expire but accepted Take-Two’s invitation to conduct limited due diligence. A confidentiality agreement was signed, and the companies were in discussions at month-end.
o Atari and GameStop reported results above expectations, while Midway reported in line results. Nintendo significantly raised its Q2 (September) guidance.
o U.S. retail console software sales for July were again strong, up 41% y-o-y (as reported by NPD), while PC software sales were -16%, hardware sales +17%, and overall industry sales up 27%. Year-to-date U.S. software sales are up 39%, hardware sales are up 22% and overall industry sales are up 32%.
o The top August game releases: Electronic Arts’ Madden NFL 09 (PS3, 360, Wii, PSP, PS2, DS) and Mercenaries 2: World in Flames (PS3, PS2, PC, 360), Microsoft’s Too Human (360), and Nintendo’s Mario Super Sluggers (Wii).
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Posted in: America, Trade
Tags: estimates, michael pachter, wedbush morgan
6 comments
#1
lelik
03/09/08, 8:05 am
and then he re-estimates them a third and fourth time. still ends up being wrong. thank you pachter
#2
Tonka
03/09/08, 9:20 am
Why isn’t he out on the street yet? The guy has never been right about anything important.
#3
El_MUERkO
03/09/08, 11:52 am
he doesn’t have to be right, that’s the best thing about being an analyst
#4
Tiger Walts
03/09/08, 12:15 pm
Also, how many Analysts and their firms can you name?
In terms of marketing his firm he’s more than earned his pay.
Completely rubbish at predictions though.
#5
Quiiick
03/09/08, 12:34 pm
Even if the predictions are totally wrong, I really like this guy a lot.
Ever seen Michael Pachter on GameTrailer’s weekly show “Bonus Round”?
#6
No_PUDding
03/09/08, 1:19 pm
Ofcourse, and that’s why I like him. He is totally wrong. He said at E3 he defintely expects a WII HD next year or 2010.
And N’Gai was there and essentially laughed at that notion. I am with N’Gai, but I still think he’s cool.